# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Loss

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Loss", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

The Rally That Wasn't

The article analyzes Bitcoin's sharp decline amid a shift in macroeconomic expectations, with strong US job data leading markets to price out Fed rate cuts. Bitcoin fell 13% to around $67,000, triggering significant outflows from US spot ETFs and indicating institutional de-risking. On-chain data confirms a bearish structure. Price has dropped back into the "bear market range," with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis falling below a key mean level—a pattern last seen in early 2022. The profitability bias has collapsed, with loss realization now dominating, mirroring a panic wave from February. Recent buyers who accumulated near the $82k top are under pressure, and loss realization is accelerating across both short-term and long-term holder cohorts. Off-chain, the rally failed at the aggregate US ETF cost basis near $83k, turning it into resistance. Spot market demand has deteriorated sharply, with sellers dominating order books. While a major long liquidation event cleared over $400M in leverage, spot buyers have not returned to absorb supply. Options markets show sustained demand for downside protection (elevated put premiums) but not panic, with volatility premiums near three-month highs. The conclusion is that the market remains fragile, with overhead supply from trapped ETF investors, weak spot demand, and accelerating losses. Without a return of spot buying and a reclaim of key cost bases, Bitcoin is vulnerable to further downside within the prevailing bear market structure.

insights.glassnode16 ч. назад

insights.glassnode16 ч. назад

Why Not Short Even When Bearish? Munger Did the Math on a 'Losing Trade'

Why Not Short Even When Bearish? Charlie Munger's Calculated "Loss-Making Account" Many traders, drawn to speculative tools like futures contracts, often face repeated failures. As the article notes, unless one is a genius, such instruments should be avoided for long-term profit-seeking. Similarly, the practice of short selling is viewed with caution. The author firmly states a policy of not shorting, even when bearish, preferring to simply wait. The core reason? Successful short selling requires exceptionally difficult conditions to profit. Legendary investors Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have themselves reflected on painful short-selling experiences. Munger highlights two critical flaws in the mathematical logic of shorting: 1. Asymmetrical Risk/Reward: A long position has a maximum loss of 100% but unlimited upside. A short position caps profit at 100% (if a stock falls to zero) but carries theoretically unlimited loss potential. 2. The "Promoter" Problem: Fraudulent or struggling companies can prolong their decline. As Munger said, "You can run out of money before the promoter runs out of ideas," meaning short sellers may be forced to cover positions at a loss before the company's true fate unfolds. The article cites Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed hedge fund manager. He once shorted 12 companies that all eventually went bankrupt. However, intense market rallies forced him to cover his positions within three weeks, resulting in massive losses—$200 million of his capital plus an additional $600 million. He concluded he likely never made money shorting in his career. His experience perfectly illustrates Munger's points: facing unlimited losses and being wiped out before being proven right. The conclusion is clear: for most investors, complex instruments like short selling and derivatives are not viable paths to stable, long-term gains. Self-reflection is advised before repeatedly wasting time and capital on such speculative strategies.

marsbitВчера 02:35

Why Not Short Even When Bearish? Munger Did the Math on a 'Losing Trade'

marsbitВчера 02:35

Missed the AI Stock Surge, What to Do Now?

The article addresses investor anxiety over having missed the explosive, multi-year rally in AI stocks (e.g., NVIDIA, Micron, SK Hynix) across global markets. It notes that despite the broad bull run, data shows most retail investors lost money in 2025, and even major institutions like Bridgewater and Berkshire Hathaway significantly reduced holdings or held excessive cash, thereby missing substantial gains. The piece highlights common pitfalls: panic selling during corrections, misdirected investments into underperforming AI verticals, and premature profit-taking. It argues that AI represents a foundational, long-term technological shift comparable to electricity or the internet, implying the opportunity is not over. Citing figures like Jack Ma and Ma Huateng, the article suggests the AI wave is just beginning, with vast potential across the entire产业链, from infrastructure to applications. The conclusion advises against chasing trends blindly. Instead, it recommends a disciplined, long-term approach—focusing on one's own strengths within the expansive AI ecosystem to prepare for the next structural opportunities.

marsbitВчера 00:19

Missed the AI Stock Surge, What to Do Now?

marsbitВчера 00:19

The End of the 'Bitcoin Hoarding Myth': MicroStrategy Sells BTC for the First Time in 3 Years

The article discusses the significant move by MicroStrategy, often dubbed the "Bitcoin whale," which sold 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135 last week, marking its first sale in three years. This action, primarily to service obligations on its STRC digital credit product, has impacted market sentiment, contributing to a BTC price drop below $71,000 and declines in related crypto stocks. While the sale was small relative to its total holdings of over 843,706 BTC (with a cost basis of ~$75,699), it symbolically challenges the firm's long-standing "HODL" strategy and the broader "digital gold" narrative for Bitcoin. The piece also highlights a related event on the Polymarket prediction platform, where a contract on the sale was settled as "no" due to the lack of an official statement, underscoring how such markets trade on defined rules rather than absolute facts. Furthermore, it notes growing skepticism from figures like Mark Cuban and Peter Schiff regarding Bitcoin's role as a hedge, suggesting a potential shift in investor perception amid current market pressures.

Odaily星球日报2 дня назад 04:07

The End of the 'Bitcoin Hoarding Myth': MicroStrategy Sells BTC for the First Time in 3 Years

Odaily星球日报2 дня назад 04:07

Another Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Ends: From High-Profile Entry to Liquidation at a Massive Loss in 11 Months

French semiconductor company Sequans Communications has sold off its bitcoin holdings and terminated its corporate bitcoin treasury strategy less than a year after launching it, sustaining heavy losses. Facing delisting from the New York Stock Exchange in mid-2025 due to low market capitalization, Sequans announced a plan to hold over 3,000 bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset. The strategy was executed with Swan Bitcoin and backed by a $384 million private financing round. At its peak in October 2025, the company held 3,234 bitcoin with an average cost of approximately $116,643 per coin. However, the plan quickly unraveled. With bitcoin's price falling, Sequans sold 970 bitcoin in late 2025 to repay debt, contradicting the core "hold" philosophy of such corporate strategies. The company has now sold more bitcoin to fully repay its convertible notes and announced the termination of its bitcoin reserve strategy. It plans to liquidate its remaining 658 bitcoin. The venture resulted in significant financial damage. The company reported an unrealized loss of $67.4 million on its bitcoin holdings in 2025, contributing to a total net loss of $109.3 million for the year. Sequans' stock (SQNS) has plummeted over 80% since the strategy's launch and is down 77% year-to-date. CEO Georges Karam, who previously championed bitcoin's long-term value, now states the company will refocus entirely on its core IoT semiconductor business. The failed experiment highlights the risks for companies adopting volatile digital assets as treasury reserves.

marsbit06/01 03:08

Bitcoin Correction Pushes 580,000 BTC Into Loss Territory

Bitcoin's recent price correction has pushed a significant portion of its supply into loss. According to Glassnode data, the total amount of BTC held at a loss (Total Supply in Loss) has risen to 8.33 million. This marks an increase of 580,000 BTC, primarily due to the asset's decline from above $76,600 to around $73,000 in the latter half of May. This indicates that a substantial volume of coins changed hands within that price range. The analytics firm notes that these recently underwater holders could contribute to near-term sell pressure as they reassess their positions. While the network's state is still better than during February's sharper crash, the increased loss supply highlights the market's sensitivity to corrections. Bitcoin is currently trading near $73,200, down over 5% for the week.

bitcoinist05/30 05:01

Bitcoin Correction Pushes 580,000 BTC Into Loss Territory

bitcoinist05/30 05:01

Galaxy Weighs Theories After $8.3M Bitcoin Burn Mystery

Galaxy Research is investigating a mysterious Bitcoin transaction where approximately 107 BTC (worth $8.3 million) was deliberately sent to a provably unspendable "burn" address. The primary question is the motive behind destroying such a large sum. Galaxy proposed several theories, including a tax-loss strategy (though deemed unlikely for old coins), a religious or ideological act, an attempt to dispose of illicit funds, or coercion. The firm suggested a plausible explanation could be an automated error, where a trading system mistakenly sent funds to a known burn address labeled "Counterparty" instead of the intended recipient. Galaxy acknowledged all theories are speculative, and the true reason may never be known.

bitcoinist05/28 13:02

Galaxy Weighs Theories After $8.3M Bitcoin Burn Mystery

bitcoinist05/28 13:02

Musk's 'One-Man Dynasty' Set to Ring the Bell on June 12th

SpaceX Files for IPO, Targets Up to $2 Trillion Valuation SpaceX has officially filed for an initial public offering (IPO) with the U.S. SEC, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker "SPCX" on June 12. The company aims to raise $70-$80 billion, targeting a historic valuation between $1.75 and $2 trillion. Despite going public, founder Elon Musk will retain approximately 85% of the voting power through a dual-class share structure, maintaining absolute control. The S-1 filing reveals a company with sharply contrasting financial segments. In 2025, SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in revenue but a net loss of $4.94 billion. The loss was primarily driven by its AI unit, xAI, which burned $6.4 billion. In contrast, the Starlink satellite internet business was highly profitable, generating $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit with an impressive 63% EBITDA margin. Starlink's user base grew to 10.3 million by Q1 2026, though average revenue per user has been declining. A key driver of the sky-high valuation is the recent $1.25 trillion merger with xAI, which added an AI narrative to the core aerospace business. SpaceX plans futuristic ventures like orbital AI data centers and space mining, though these are not yet revenue-generating. The company's capital expenditures are massive, exceeding $20.7 billion in 2025, with AI spending surpassing that of space operations. The IPO, led by Goldman Sachs, has drawn both enthusiasm and skepticism from Wall Street. While some hail it as a generational investment opportunity, others question the steep valuation multiples and the sustainability of funding xAI's significant losses with Starlink's profits. The listing represents a major test of market faith in Musk's long-term vision and his unique model of centralized control.

marsbit05/22 01:56

Musk's 'One-Man Dynasty' Set to Ring the Bell on June 12th

marsbit05/22 01:56

SpaceX and OpenAI Are Rushing to Go Public. Is Wall Street Ready?

SpaceX and OpenAI Rush to IPO: Is Wall Street Ready? SpaceX and OpenAI, led by former partners turned rivals Elon Musk and Sam Altman, are on a collision course to go public, igniting a potential Wall Street showdown. SpaceX filed for an IPO targeting a staggering $1.75-$2 trillion valuation. Its financials are starkly divided: while the Starlink (Connectivity) segment is profitable, these earnings are being consumed by massive losses in its core Aerospace business (rocket/Starship development) and the newly integrated AI business, formerly xAI. The entire IPO narrative hinges on investors betting that Starlink can fund Musk's long-term vision of orbital AI data centers, lunar infrastructure, and Mars colonization. OpenAI, following its legal victory over Musk, is reportedly preparing a secret IPO filing with a target to list by September. Its move is framed as a necessary "lifeline." Despite high revenue, OpenAI is burning cash at an alarming rate. Facing intense competition from rivals like Anthropic (which is nearing profitability) and pressure to sustain enormous compute costs, the IPO is seen as a critical step to secure public market funding for survival. Both companies present investors with a high-stakes gamble on future value versus present-day financial realities. SpaceX's valuation is a bet on unproven, capital-intensive space-based infrastructure. OpenAI's hinges on AI becoming a foundational platform, despite current monetization challenges and heavy losses. Their IPOs test whether Wall Street will pay a historic premium for these grand, long-term narratives or demand more conventional proof of near-term profitability, potentially setting the stage for a significant market reckoning.

marsbit05/22 01:40

SpaceX and OpenAI Are Rushing to Go Public. Is Wall Street Ready?

marsbit05/22 01:40

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Positions

Harvard University's endowment fund, managed by Harvard Management Company (HMC), recently disclosed significant reductions in its cryptocurrency holdings. According to its latest 13F filing, HMC sold its entire position in the BlackRock Ethereum Spot ETF (ETHA) and reduced its stake in the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) by 43% in Q1 2026. This marks a sharp reversal from its peak holdings of $443 million in crypto assets just two quarters prior, bringing the current value to approximately $117 million. Analysis suggests these sales likely resulted in substantial losses. Estimates indicate HMC's Bitcoin ETF trades incurred a roughly 28% loss (over $100 million), while its brief Ethereum position fell about 35% (over $30 million), totaling potential losses exceeding $150 million. The timing of HMC's trades—aggressively adding to Bitcoin near its all-time high in late 2025 and buying Ethereum just before a market downturn—has drawn criticism as potential "buying high and selling low." However, the context points to broader pressures. Harvard faced a $113 million operating deficit in FY2025 due to cuts in federal research funding and a significant tax increase on endowment income. With much of its portfolio locked in illiquid private equity and hedge funds, the highly liquid crypto ETFs presented the most straightforward assets to sell for liquidity and risk management. Furthermore, HMC's Bitcoin ETF holding had grown to 20% of its public portfolio by Q3 2025, prompting necessary rebalancing. The move contrasts with other institutions like Mubadala (increasing Bitcoin ETF holdings) and Dartmouth College (maintaining and diversifying crypto exposure). Ultimately, Harvard's actions appear driven by a confluence of fiscal stress, liquidity needs, and portfolio risk control rather than a simple market-timing strategy, highlighting how traditional institutional risk calculus applies even to volatile crypto assets.

marsbit05/18 11:50