# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Geopolitics

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Geopolitics", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

From Macro to Allocation: Key Variables for TradFi × Crypto in 2026

CoinFound's "TradFi x Crypto 2026 Outlook" report identifies key trends shaping the convergence of traditional finance and crypto. It highlights 2025 as an inflection point of integration, with 2026 accelerating into a phase of "programmable finance." The report outlines eight major macro forces, including a crisis of trust in fiat systems driving demand for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold, geopolitical shifts fostering parallel blockchain-based settlement systems, and AI automation creating demand for machine-to-machine payments using stablecoins. Additionally, energy scarcity is turning mining firms into critical infrastructure, while Real-World Assets (RWA) are evolving from issuance to utility, enhancing liquidity and serving as programmable collateral. Seven key investment trends for 2026 are projected: the RWA market will structurally expand, led by stablecoins and new growth in equities and commodities; stablecoins will compete as global payment infrastructure; tokenized stock liquidity will grow; and private credit RWA will become more transparent and asset-driven due to default risks. Furthermore, gold and commodity RWAs will enable new collateralized finance, RWA liquidity will centralize on major exchanges, and crypto equities (DATs) will see both differentiation and consolidation. The report concludes that 2026 will be defined by secondary market expansion and credit growth, with risks centered on the complexity of managing off-chain defaults triggering on-chain liquidations. The overarching theme is the unification of TradFi and Crypto under "On-chain Finance."

比推01/22 06:08

From Macro to Allocation: Key Variables for TradFi × Crypto in 2026

比推01/22 06:08

Between Bans and Surges: Global Prediction Markets Become the New Battleground for 'Institutional-Grade Information Warfare'

Between Ban and Boom: Global Prediction Markets Emerge as a New Battleground for "Institutional-Grade Information Warfare" Prediction markets, once a niche domain, are now breaking into mainstream finance. Hedge funds and crypto whales are increasingly monitoring platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi alongside traditional indices. These markets, which allow users to bet on event outcomes, saw a single-day trading volume exceeding $700 million, signaling a transformation into a significant, institution-grade sector. The core driver is the demand to price and hedge against macro uncertainty—such as election results or geopolitical conflicts—where traditional derivatives fall short. This institutional adoption is underscored by Polymarket's data partnership with Dow Jones, integrating its odds into terminals like The Wall Street Journal. However, rapid growth has triggered a global regulatory crackdown. European nations, including Hungary and Portugal, have banned Polymarket for operating as an unlicensed gambling site. Even in the U.S., Kalshi faces state-level restrictions. A highly suspicious trade—turning $32 into $400k by accurately predicting the ousting of Venezuela's president—highlighted risks of insider trading and political sensitivity, intensifying regulatory scrutiny. The central conflict is a fundamental legal classification: are these markets financial instruments for information aggregation or simply a new form of gambling? This dichotomy is creating a fragmented global landscape. The future will likely be a bifurcated system: compliant, restricted platforms like Kalshi serving institutions, and decentralized, broader markets like Polymarket operating in regulatory gray zones. While prediction markets are becoming embedded in risk management models, participants face sharply rising and jurisdiction-dependent legal risks. The ultimate survivors may be the "regulation-friendly" versions, marking another disruptive financial innovation's transition into the mainstream.

marsbit01/21 11:02

Between Bans and Surges: Global Prediction Markets Become the New Battleground for 'Institutional-Grade Information Warfare'

marsbit01/21 11:02

Matrixport Market Watch: Structural Support and Strategic Opportunities Amid Increased Crypto Market Volatility

Matrixport Market Watch: Structural Support and Opportunities Amid Increased Crypto Volatility The crypto market recently experienced a sharp rally followed by a pullback. Bitcoin surged from around $89,000 to approach a six-month high near $97,000 but failed to hold above this resistance. A subsequent correction on January 19 saw it drop below the $92,000 support level. Despite this "false breakout," the market structure remains stable, as indicated by a significant reduction in on-chain profit-taking compared to Q4 2023. Macroeconomic drivers are becoming more complex, shifting from a singular focus on interest rates to a dual-factor model that now includes "geopolitical and tariff risks." While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, market expectations for a March cut persist. This new environment is likely to increase overall market volatility rather than trigger a straightforward bullish trend. On-chain and fund flow data provide positive signals. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, stablecoin supplies are expanding, and exchange balances remain low—indicating coins are moving toward long-term holders. Ethereum's staking rate is nearing 30%, reducing its circulating supply and creating underlying support. This creates a dynamic of "decreasing sellable supply while awaiting incoming capital," providing strong buy-side support during dips. Technically, Bitcoin's key level to watch is $92,000. A failure to reclaim it could see a test of support at $90,000 and the $88,000-$89,000 value area. Major resistance sits at $95,000 and the $98,000-$102,000 liquidity zone. Ethereum is consolidating between $3,100-$3,300; a break above $3,250-$3,350 is needed to advance, while a drop below $3,100 could lead to a test of $2,850-$2,900. The overarching view is that while short-term volatility has increased, the medium-term bullish thesis remains intact due to continued capital inflows and improving supply dynamics. Investors are advised to maintain strategic flexibility, utilizing products like FCNs for yield in neutral markets, Accumulators for buying the dip, or Decumulators for hedging and gradual selling.

marsbit01/21 08:36

Matrixport Market Watch: Structural Support and Strategic Opportunities Amid Increased Crypto Market Volatility

marsbit01/21 08:36

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