Digital Banks Are No Longer in the Banking Business; The Real Gold Mine Lies in Stablecoins and Identity Verification
The article argues that the core value of digital banking has shifted away from traditional models. Valuation is no longer driven by user numbers but by revenue per customer, as seen with Revolut's diversified income streams versus Nubank's reliance on credit.
The true "gold mines" are now stablecoins and identity verification. For stablecoins, the primary profit is the interest earned on reserve assets (like Treasury bills), a revenue stream captured by the issuer (e.g., Circle) rather than the consumer-facing digital bank. This is leading to vertical integration, with companies like Stripe and Circle building proprietary settlement networks (Tempo, Arc) to control this profitable infrastructure and ensure privacy.
Stablecoins are disrupting the old, multi-layered payment system by enabling direct, peer-to-peer transfers, forcing digital banks to become efficient routing layers for these transactions or risk obsolescence.
Simultaneously, identity is becoming the new account core. The trend is moving away from siloed KYC processes towards portable, verifiable credentials (e.g., EU's Digital Identity Wallet, Worldcoin, Polygon ID). This will allow a user's identity to travel across platforms, simplifying compliance and making the crypto wallet the central hub for assets and identity.
The article concludes that user count, cards, and UI are no longer competitive advantages. Future successful digital banks will be "wallet-first" systems, falling into one of three models:
1. **Interest-driven:** Profit from holding user stablecoin balances and earning yield on reserves.
2. **Payment-flow-driven:** Profit from facilitating a high volume of stablecoin transactions.
3. **Stablecoin infrastructure-driven:** The most profitable model, controlling the issuance, reserves, and settlement of stablecoins itself.
The market will split between simple consumer apps and powerful infrastructure providers that control the core of the financial stack.
深潮12/15 09:52
