Is the Plunge Just Beginning? Three 'Macro Bombs' for BTC About to Detonate
Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop on December 15, falling from $89,000 to around $85,000, nearing its December 1 low. The market fear and greed index has fallen to 21, indicating extreme fear. Three major macroeconomic events are expected to further impact Bitcoin's price:
First, the U.S. November non-farm payroll data will be released on December 16. Due to the previous government shutdown, October data was incomplete, which may lead to market volatility. Weak data could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut in January 2026, but could also increase selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Second, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19, marking its highest rate in 30 years. This could end the long-standing yen carry trade, reducing liquidity in risk assets like Bitcoin. Historical data shows Bitcoin often drops over 20% following BoJ rate hikes.
Third, uncertainty over the next Fed Chair is growing. Kevin Warsh, considered more hawkish, has gained traction as a potential nominee over Kevin Hassett. A Warsh appointment could mean tighter monetary policy, further suppressing Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
These factors materialize, Bitcoin may face continued downward pressure, with some analysts predicting a fall toward $70,000.
Odaily星球日报12/16 09:33
