After Hitting $94,000, Holding Firm at $90,000, BTC Continues to Face Risk Appetite Test (01.05~01.11)
BTC opened the week at $91,499.04 and closed at $90,872.01, a slight decline of 0.68% with amplified volatility of 6.15%. After briefly testing the $94,000 resistance level—driven by improved Fed liquidity and soft-landing expectations from U.S. employment data—selling pressure from ETF investors and long-term holders pushed the price back toward the $90,000 support zone.
Macro conditions show a resilient U.S. economy with low unemployment and steady wage growth, reducing the likelihood of a January rate cut. This has kept risk appetite subdued, particularly for high-duration assets like Bitcoin. Despite this, technical indicators suggest a gradually strengthening structure, with the 60-day moving average providing support. A break above $94,000 could open a path toward $95,000.
On-chain data reveals continued distribution by long-term holders, though the pace has slowed. Capital flow trends show net outflows from BTC ETFs and stablecoins, while large holders (“whales”) continue accumulating at lower levels without aggressively supporting upward moves. The market remains in a fragile balance between distribution and accumulation, with overall sentiment cautious.
According to EMC Labs’ cycle metrics, BTC is currently in a “downtrend” phase (bear market).
marsbit01/14 12:15
