Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own set of answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will梳理 (sort through) the winning probability situations for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Temporarily Ranks First with a 76% Real-Time Probability
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume over $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" temporarily ranks first with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.
Address Holdings Analysis
Top "YES" Holder for 《One Battle After Another》: Address: 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397. This address has a high win rate of 89.7%. The average purchase price for the "YES" shares on 《One Battle After Another》 was 54.8 cents.
Address Holding Only the Single Event "One Battle After Another": Address: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d. This address bought nearly 10,000 "YES" shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago. It currently holds only the single event bet for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.
Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Temporarily Ranks First with a 57% Real-Time Probability
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan temporarily ranks first with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a probability of 34%.
It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.
Address Holdings Analysis
Top "YES" Holder for Michael B. Jordan: Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271. This address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical profit/loss of negative $200,000.
Top "NO" Holder for Michael B. Jordan: Address: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b. This address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical profit/loss of $172,000.
Top "YES" Holder for Timothée Chalamet: Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top "YES" holder for Michael B. Jordan. This shows the address is betting that either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet will win the Best Actor award.
Top "NO" Holder for Timothée Chalamet: Address: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344. This address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical profit/loss of $2.82 million.
Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Temporarily Ranks First with a 91% Real-Time Probability
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson temporarily ranks first with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.
Address Holdings Analysis
Top "YES" Holder for Paul Thomas Anderson: Address: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4. This address has a high win rate of 83.6%. The average purchase price for the "YES" shares on Paul Thomas Anderson was 93 cents.
Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Temporarily Ranks First with a 97% Real-Time Probability
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley temporarily ranks first with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.
Other Popular Awards
Additionally, awards with high discussion heat include:
一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan temporarily ranks first with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a probability of 26%; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a probability of 21%.
二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn temporarily ranks first with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a probability of 19%; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a probability of 7%.
三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" temporarily ranks first with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.
四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" temporarily ranks first with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.
