Don't Just Focus on Trading Volume, Learn to Understand the 'True and False Prosperity' of Perpetual Contracts

But there's a catch. With such massive activity, it's easy to misread the volume metric. Especially because perpetual trading isn't just about buying an asset and holding it long-term; it also involves repeatedly adjusting bet sizes using leverage over shorter time frames.

So, when market turnover speeds up, a question inevitably comes to mind: does record-breaking volume reflect more capital flowing in, or the same capital cycling faster?

This is where observing Open Interest (OI) becomes meaningful. If volume reflects capital flow, then OI measures outstanding risk exposure. On perpetual exchanges, OI refers to the total dollar value of active, unsettled long and short contracts held by traders.

If perpetual trading is being adopted by the mass market, we would expect to see not only larger capital flows but also proportionally growing open interest exposure.

· Last February, OI averaged around $4 billion;

· Now that number has more than tripled, to approximately $13 billion. In fact, the average for the entire month of January reached about $18 billion before dropping by about 30% in the first week of February.

While perpetual trading volume has doubled in the past five months, OI has grown by about 50% (from $13 billion to ~$18 billion, then back to $13 billion). To understand this better, I looked at the capital efficiency (i.e., OI as a percentage of daily volume) over the past year.

The OI/Volume ratio jumped 50% from last year's 0.33x to 0.49x today. But this progress wasn't smooth; the 50 basis point increase in this ratio went through multiple peaks and troughs:

· Phase 1 (Feb-May 2025): The Lull. The OI/Volume ratio averaged ~0.46x, with average OI of ~$4.8B and average daily volume of ~$11.5B.

· Phase 2 (June - Mid-Oct): The Jump. The ratio averaged ~0.72x. During this period, average OI rose to $14.8B, and average daily volume was $23B. This marked not only record-high volumes but also increased risk exposure and greater capital commitment to these derivatives.

· Phase 3: The Reversal. The start of this phase coincided with the massive liquidation on October 10th, which wiped out over $19B in leveraged positions within 24 hours. From mid-October to late December, the OI/Volume ratio dropped to ~0.38x, driven primarily by volume growth while open interest largely stagnated. October, November, and December saw the three highest monthly volumes of 2025, averaging over $1.2 trillion per month. During the same period, OI averaged around $15B, slightly below the average of the previous three months.

Protocol Level

Here, I want to add more dimensions at the protocol level for perpetual markets. This helps us understand how efficiently perpetual exchanges convert trading activity into "sticky capital" and revenue.

As of February 10th, here is how the top 5 perpetual exchanges by 24-hour volume performed:

· Hyperliquid: Its ratio of OI to 7-day average daily volume is over 45%, able to convert a large share of its volume into lasting positions. This suggests that for every $10 traded on the platform, $4.5 is投入 (invested) into active positions. This is important because high OI rates lead to tighter spreads, deeper liquidity, and confidence in scaling trades without slippage.

· Hyperliquid's fee revenue reinforces this story. Its Take Rate is ~3.2 basis points, converting the largest share of its 24-hour volume into fee income.

· Aster: Currently ranked second, it maintains a decent capital efficiency (OI/Vol) of 34%, even though its volume is almost half of Hyperliquid's. However, its monetization capability is notable—with a lower take rate (~1.6 bps), Aster clearly prioritizes capital retention on its platform over fee maximization.

· edgeX & Lighter: Both perform similarly on the capital efficiency ladder, with an OI/Vol of 21% each. However, edgeX's fee monetization is comparable to Hyperliquid's, at 2.8 bps.

Summary

It's remarkable that today's perpetual contract market is no longer a simple growth story; it requires a nuanced reading of multiple metrics. At the macro level, volume is exploding: the growth in cumulative perpetual trading volume in six months exceeded the total of the previous four years. But the picture only becomes clear when OI and volume are read together.

A clearer victory lies in the growth of the OI/Volume ratio. This is a direct signal that there is "patient capital" willing to trust and bet on the various products and markets emerging in perpetual trading exchanges.

What is even more值得关注 (worth watching) in the future is how individual players will evolve from here and what they choose to optimize. Over time, platforms that can optimize "trading conviction" and achieve sustainable monetization will be far more important than those that merely rely on rewards and incentives to dominate volume leaderboards.