Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Restructuring Consensus in the Crypto Market

In 2025, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a structural transformation across three key dimensions: the form, meaning, and use of money. First, the form of money is diversifying. Stablecoins, tokenized bank deposits, and CBDCs are coexisting with distinct roles. Payment infrastructure and IT platforms are rapidly adopting stablecoins to expand their ecosystems. Second, the concept of money is broadening. Tokenization is converting both tangible assets (like bonds and real estate) and intangible elements (like attention and predictions) into liquid, programmable assets. This blurs the line between money and assets, redefining value representation. Third, the use of money is expanding. Centralized exchanges (CEXs) like Binance, Bybit, and Coinbase are evolving into full-stack financial ecosystems. They now offer derivatives, tokenized stocks, RWAs, on-chain debit/credit cards, and integrated DeFi services. These platforms are building their own blockchains (e.g., BNB Chain, Base) to create vertically integrated environments. Overall, the shift from speculative concepts to practical reality is accelerating. Regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and technological integration are driving this change, positioning blockchain as the future core of global finance.

深潮12/16 14:33

Restructuring Consensus in the Crypto Market

深潮12/16 14:33

Is Solana Dying? DEX Trading Volume Drops 95% as SOL Price Continues to Fall

Solana's network activity has declined sharply, with DEX trading volume dropping approximately 95% from its January peak of $38.4 billion to $1.7 billion. Active addresses on Solana-based DEXs also fell to a yearly low of 2.85 million, down significantly from 24 million earlier in the year. Application revenue plummeted 96% to under $1.4 million. Despite the downturn, investment continues, with Coinbase announcing expanded access to Solana-based tokens through direct platform integration at the recent Solana Breakpoint conference. SOL's price remains under pressure, trading around $132, down nearly 4% over the past week. Analysts note a bearish technical structure, including an ascending parallel channel and a descending triangle pattern, suggesting potential further downside. A breakdown could lead to a 16% drop to the $106 support level.

ccn.com12/16 14:32

Is Solana Dying? DEX Trading Volume Drops 95% as SOL Price Continues to Fall

ccn.com12/16 14:32

Stripe for Agents: From Protocol Stack to Payment Ecosystem - An Investment Map for Agents

Agentic Commerce represents a transformative shift towards fully autonomous commercial systems where AI agents handle service discovery, trust verification, order generation, payment authorization, and settlement without human intervention. This machine-to-machine (M2M) economy relies on a dual-payment infrastructure: traditional fiat systems (e.g., Stripe, Visa) for regulated and high-value transactions, and stablecoin-based systems (e.g., USDC, x402) for digital-native, micro-payment scenarios like API calls, cross-border payments, and IoT transactions. The protocol stack enabling Agentic Commerce spans six layers: discovery (A2A, MCP), trust (ERC-8004), ordering (ACP), authorization (AP2), payment (AP2 for fiat, x402 for crypto), and fulfillment (still emerging). Key protocols include Google’s A2A for agent interoperability, Anthropic’s MCP for tool integration, OpenAI and Stripe’s ACP for structured ordering, Google’s AP2 for payment authorization, Ethereum’s ERC-8004 for on-chain identity/reputation, and Coinbase’s x402 for stablecoin-based API payments. The ecosystem features projects like Skyfire (identity and payment credentials), Payman (AI-native fund control), Catena Labs (agent identity standards), and Nevermined (micro-payment billing). x402’s Facilitators (e.g., Coinbase CDP, PayAI) are critical for executing on-chain settlements, though the space remains early and competitive. Long-term, Agentic Commerce will operate on two parallel tracks: fiat-based systems for traditional commerce and stablecoin-native protocols like x402 for M2M micro-transactions. Web3’s role is to provide verifiable identity, programmable settlement, and global stablecoin infrastructure, ultimately重构ing economic秩序 through trust, automation, and scalability.

marsbit12/16 12:35

Stripe for Agents: From Protocol Stack to Payment Ecosystem - An Investment Map for Agents

marsbit12/16 12:35

Why Is Solana No Longer Suitable for Hosting Conferences?

"Solana Breakpoint 2025 in Abu Dhabi marked a significant evolution from its early developer-focused roots into a global 'festival' for builders, rather than a traditional conference. Written by a long-time Solana ecosystem builder, this reflection argues that as Breakpoint has scaled—paralleling Solana’s growth in transactions, DEX volume, and application revenue—it has managed to maintain a builder-first culture despite increased institutional and capital interest. The event emphasized openness, anti-elitism, and shared momentum, where developers, founders, and creators coexisted without hierarchy. The author notes a mature, product-centric energy, with serious discussions on DeFi, infrastructure, and new experiments, though cautioning against insular 'Solana-only' mindsets. Ultimately, Breakpoint 2025 succeeded as a celebration of creation and cultural cohesion, showcasing Solana’s resilience and forward motion beyond mere price cycles and speculation."

marsbit12/16 12:02

Why Is Solana No Longer Suitable for Hosting Conferences?

marsbit12/16 12:02

MoveBit Research Release | Belobog: A Move Fuzzing Framework for Real-World Attacks

MoveBit introduces Belobog, a novel fuzzing framework designed specifically for Move smart contracts to address security challenges beyond syntax and type errors. Unlike traditional fuzzing methods that struggle with Move’s strong type system and resource semantics, Belobog leverages type-guided input generation and mutation. It constructs a type graph to produce semantically valid and executable transaction calls, significantly improving the efficiency and depth of state exploration. The framework integrates concolic execution (combining concrete and symbolic execution) to penetrate complex constraints and branch conditions, enabling deeper coverage of potential vulnerabilities. Evaluated on 109 real-world Move contracts, Belobog detected 100% of Critical and 79% of Major vulnerabilities confirmed by manual audits. It also demonstrated the ability to reproduce full exploit paths without prior knowledge of vulnerabilities. Designed to be developer-friendly, Belobog will be released as open-source to encourage community adoption and extension. The work is currently under peer review for PLDI’26. Preprint: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.02918

marsbit12/16 09:12

MoveBit Research Release | Belobog: A Move Fuzzing Framework for Real-World Attacks

marsbit12/16 09:12

From Mining to Prediction Markets: CoinShares' 2026 Crypto Roadmap

CoinShares' 2026 Crypto Roadmap highlights a significant shift from speculative investments to utility-driven projects. Key trends include a strong recovery in crypto VC funding, which has surpassed 2024 levels, with capital concentrating on large-scale deals focused on real-world utility and cash flow. Four major investment themes for 2026 are identified: RWA (especially stablecoins), AI-integrated consumer applications, retail-focused on-chain investment platforms, and Bitcoin utility infrastructure. Prediction markets, led by platforms like Polymarket, have evolved into mainstream information tools, demonstrating high accuracy and growing institutional adoption, notably with ICE's strategic investment. Bitcoin mining is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with companies pivot to high-profit HPC/AI data centers, expected to reduce mining revenue to under 20% by late 2026. Future mining will diversify into models led by ASIC manufacturers, modular operations, intermittent grid-balancing mining, and sovereign-state mining. The industry is moving towards practical, infrastructure-focused growth, distancing from meme coins and purely conceptual projects.

比推12/16 08:47

From Mining to Prediction Markets: CoinShares' 2026 Crypto Roadmap

比推12/16 08:47

CoinShares' 3 Major Crypto Predictions for 2026: Diverging Mining Models, Focused Investment Tracks, and the Rise of Prediction Markets

CoinShares' 2026 crypto outlook highlights three major trends: mining diversification, focused investment sectors, and the rise of prediction markets. VC funding has strongly recovered, with capital concentrating on high-utility projects rather than memes. Key investment areas for 2026 include RWA (especially stablecoins), AI-powered consumer crypto apps, retail-friendly on-chain investment platforms, and Bitcoin utility infrastructure. Prediction markets, led by Polymarket, have become mainstream information tools due to their accuracy and high post-election engagement. Institutional adoption is growing, evidenced by ICE’s strategic investment. Bitcoin miners are rapidly pivoting to high-profit HPC/AI data centers, with mining revenue share expected to drop below 20% by late 2026. Future mining will diversify into four models: ASIC manufacturer self-mining, modular temporary mining, intermittent grid-balancing mining, and sovereign state mining. Long-term, mining will likely be dominated by sovereign states and ASIC makers.

marsbit12/16 08:10

CoinShares' 3 Major Crypto Predictions for 2026: Diverging Mining Models, Focused Investment Tracks, and the Rise of Prediction Markets

marsbit12/16 08:10

ENS Governance Crisis: Decentralization = Low Quality and Inefficiency

ENS Governance Crisis: Decentralization Leads to Inefficiency and Mediocrity In November 2025, ENS founder Nick Johnson publicly criticized the state of ENS DAO, warning that political infighting was driving away dedicated contributors and risking the organization's takeover by inexperienced or self-interested participants. This sparked a broader discussion about systemic failures in the DAO's structure. Limes, the DAO's long-serving secretary, proposed dissolving three key working groups (Meta-Governance, Ecosystem, and Public Goods), arguing that the current structure incentivized relationship preservation over truth-seeking and lacked mechanisms to remove underperforming contributors. He highlighted that poor contributors drive out talented ones, and the system inherently discourages honesty. Multiple high-caliber contributors, including lawyers, programmers, and scientists, confirmed they had exited due to a toxic culture of gatekeeping, conflicts of interest, and self-dealing. Critical questions were discouraged, and the drafting of essential documents like a constitution was mishandled, leading to wasted funds and stagnation. Analyst clowes.eth noted that the working groups saw almost no new active participants throughout the year, and the governance model failed to attract or empower leaders. Participants avoided sharing honest opinions due to political repercussions, making mediocrity the norm. The core issue is distorted incentives: when future funding depends on relationships, the rational choice is to avoid criticism, leading to log-rolling (mutual proposal support), adverse selection (talented people leave), and low decision quality. This is compounded by the "DAO premium," where services cost 2-3 times more than in traditional organizations. The openness that initially empowered the DAO became its weakness, as it allowed participation based on availability rather than capability without quality control. Nick Johnson supported a "pause" rather than abolition of the groups, acknowledging concerns about the DAO's ability to meet legal obligations if professional contributors leave. The community split into two camps: one advocating for a comprehensive, paid audit before any structural changes, and another pushing for immediate dissolution and action. Deeper issues were highlighted, including a lack of transparency from ENS Labs, the core development team funded by the DAO, which operates opaquely despite its central role. The crisis underscores a fundamental challenge: in consensus-based systems, saying the truth carries high relational, political, and opportunity costs. Without mechanisms to reward honesty and ensure accountability, decentralization can lead to institutional silence and inefficiency. Proposed solutions range from radical ideas like stripping voting rights from service providers to pragmatic steps like creating a more centralized operational company (OpCo) within the DAO for better execution. The debate continues, with elections delayed and proposals under review. The crisis remains unresolved, but the organization's willingness to self-reflect and consider dismantling its own structure is a notable achievement in itself.

marsbit12/16 07:13

ENS Governance Crisis: Decentralization = Low Quality and Inefficiency

marsbit12/16 07:13

Before You Jump on Any ICO Bandwagon, Read This First

Before participating in any ICO, it's crucial to understand that most projects fail, and only a few achieve success. The recent hype around ICOs, driven by projects like MegaETH and Plasma, often leads to impulsive investments without proper due diligence. Here are key points to consider: 1. **Product Fundamentals**: Evaluate if the product solves a real problem and has genuine innovation. Avoid projects based on future promises or testnet data without a working product. 2. **Team Experience**: The team's track record matters. Experienced teams can adapt to market changes, while weak teams may disappear when hype fades. 3. **Investors and Valuation**: Check if reputable VCs are involved and assess the valuation. Avoid projects where insiders have low valuations, leaving retail investors at risk. 4. **Authentic Data**: Look beyond surface metrics like TVL or user numbers. Ensure data is genuine and not inflated by incentives or fake activity. 5. **Marketing and Narrative**: Strong projects control their narrative and attract organic attention. Poor projects rely on buzzwords without substance. 6. **Tokenomics**: Understand token unlock schedules, vesting, and fully diluted valuation (FDV). Avoid structures that favor insiders and shift risk to retail. 7. **Market Conditions**: Market cycles significantly impact valuation and returns. The same project may perform differently in a bull vs. bear market. ICO investments are not free money. Avoid FOMO-driven decisions and prioritize projects with real value over hype.

深潮12/16 06:49

Before You Jump on Any ICO Bandwagon, Read This First

深潮12/16 06:49

2025: The Irreversible Changes in the Crypto Market

By 2025, the market has structurally shifted from speculative cycles to institutional-scale infrastructure. Key irreversible changes include: institutions becoming the dominant marginal buyers of crypto assets; Real-World Assets (RWAs) maturing into a legitimate asset class; stablecoins solidifying as both a killer app and a systemic vulnerability; and Layer-2 networks consolidating into a winner-take-all landscape. Prediction markets evolved into financial infrastructure, while AI x Crypto transitioned from hype to practical infrastructure. Launchpads industrialized into internet capital markets. High-FDV, low-float tokens proved structurally uninvestable, and the InfoFi sector experienced a boom and bust. Consumer crypto returned, led by neobanks rather than native Web3 apps, and global regulatory frameworks normalized, providing clarity and reducing operational risk.

深潮12/16 02:30

2025: The Irreversible Changes in the Crypto Market

深潮12/16 02:30

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