Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Where Did the Money Go? A Survival Guide to the Future 'Dollar Shortage'

"Where Did the Money Go? A Survival Guide for the Coming 'Dollar Shortage'" by Tiezhu Ge discusses the evolving nature of U.S. dollar liquidity, arguing it is no longer solely determined by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet but increasingly by the willingness and ability of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) to act as financial intermediaries. The article explains that post-2025, dollar liquidity has shifted from a quantity constraint to an "intermediation constraint." Key regulatory frameworks like Basel III, particularly the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) and Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), limit banks' capacity to expand their balance sheets. This makes them reluctant to engage in low-return activities like Treasury market-making and repo lending, especially during quarter-ends when regulatory compliance is scrutinized. This can lead to repo rate spikes (SOFR), forced Treasury sell-offs by funds, and heightened market volatility. The analysis framework for dollar tightness includes monitoring offshore dollar funding costs (e.g., cross-currency basis swaps like USD/JPY), onshore repo market pressures (SOFR vs. IORB), and bank behavior (e.g., use of the Fed's Standing Repo Facility). The author warns that without SLR relief, a scenario of easy monetary policy but tight credit could prevail. This creates asymmetric risks where liquidity can vanish quickly, potentially causing simultaneous stock and bond market declines (breaking the 60/40 portfolio). The guide advises holding cash for defense and considering gold/commodities as hedges, while cautioning that low-liquidity assets are highly vulnerable to sudden crashes.

marsbit01/05 09:34

Where Did the Money Go? A Survival Guide to the Future 'Dollar Shortage'

marsbit01/05 09:34

Hotcoin Research | Review of Top Perp DEXs: Cold Reflection Amid Data Frenzy and 2026 Outlook

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the Perpetual Decentralized Exchange (Perp DEX) landscape, focusing on its evolution, key players, and outlook for 2026. In 2025, the Perp DEX market saw explosive growth, with monthly trading volumes exceeding $1 trillion. The year began with Hyperliquid dominating over 70% of the market share, but its position was challenged by new entrants like Aster, Lighter, and EdgeX, reducing its share to around 17% by year-end. Key metrics such as trading volume and open interest (OI) revealed a more nuanced picture: while newcomers like Lighter (with a zero-fee model) and Aster (backed by Binance) captured significant volume, Hyperliquid maintained a dominant 49% share of the total OI, indicating stronger capital depth and real user engagement. The report details five major protocols: 1. **Hyperliquid**: A community-driven project on a dedicated L1 chain, it leads in OI and protocol revenue, with a strong tokenomics model focused on buybacks and burns. 2. **Aster**: Gained rapid traction but faced a trust crisis after allegations of wash trading and data manipulation, causing its token price to plummet. 3. **Lighter**: A technically advanced, VC-backed platform on a ZK-Rollup. Its aggressive zero-fee strategy drove high volume but raised sustainability concerns and exposed stability risks during market stress. 4. **EdgeX**: Incubated by Amber Group, it offers a professional, hybrid architecture with excellent liquidity and low fees, though it has not yet launched a token. 5. **Paradex**: Backed by Paradigm, it is developing a full-featured derivatives platform on Starknet, planning to offer perps, options, and spot trading. The analysis highlights significant opportunities for Perp DEXs, including large market penetration potential, technological advancements, growing user adoption, and capital inflow from institutions. However, it also warns of risks like wash trading, technical failures, tokenomics instability, market volatility, and increasing regulatory scrutiny. Looking ahead to 2026, the market is expected to mature, with a focus on quality growth over volume, product diversification (e.g., options, RWAs), and increased regulatory clarity. The landscape will likely feature intensified competition between established players, new entrants, and potentially traditional CEXs entering the DeFi derivatives space.

marsbit01/05 07:16

Hotcoin Research | Review of Top Perp DEXs: Cold Reflection Amid Data Frenzy and 2026 Outlook

marsbit01/05 07:16

2025 Archive: Odaily Editorial Team's Selection of Featured Articles

Odaily's 2025 Year in Review: A Selection of Key Articles The year 2025 was complex for the crypto world, marked by shifting narratives, dissolving consensus, and amplified market volatility. In this climate, Odaily published 1,770 original articles, with the editorial team selecting those that best captured critical questions and meaningful moments of the year. Key themes and selected articles include: * **Early-Year Opportunities:** Coverage of major early gains, including a personal account of a 100x return on ai16z and analyses of the phenomenon-level TRUMP token, which created millionaires. * **Regulatory Shifts:** Reports on the profound change in the U.S. regulatory landscape under the new administration and its impact on crypto policy. * **Major Events & Security:** In-depth reporting on critical incidents like the $1.5 billion Bybit hack and its subsequent crisis management. * **Market Structure & Innovation:** Analysis of evolving business models, the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) with Robinhood's move, and the strategic maneuvers of projects like Ethena. * **In-Depth Interviews:** Profiles of key figures, including an ETH bull who held through massive gains and a look at the methods of a prominent Meme trader. * **Market Sentiment & Challenges:** Articles captured the growing industry fatigue, with pieces on declining user engagement, the struggles of Web3 workers," and the intense "airdrop hunting" landscape. * **DeFi & Systemic Risk:** Investigations into emerging risks, such as the role of "Curators" and the vulnerabilities in on-chain wealth management products following a major market crash. * **Bitcoin & Macro Trends:** Philosophical reflections on Bitcoin's enduring value 17 years after its creation. * **Niche Revivals:** Coverage of the surprising resurgence of privacy tokens like ZEC. The collection concludes with a survival guide for the perceived bear market, emphasizing resilience needed for 2026. The overall focus was on precise, truthful reporting that stands the test of time.

Odaily星球日报01/05 05:45

2025 Archive: Odaily Editorial Team's Selection of Featured Articles

Odaily星球日报01/05 05:45

The U.S. Can No Longer Control Latin America, So They Took Maduro

US influence over Latin America is waning, as evidenced by the recent US military operation to extract Venezuelan President Maduro. For decades, the US maintained control through three key financial tools: debt, dollarization, and sanctions. In the 1980s, Latin America’s foreign debt reached 50% of GDP, but today it stands at just 20%, partly due to China’s rise as a major lender and trading partner since the 2000s. Countries like Brazil and Argentina used commodity-driven revenue to pay off IMF debts and reduce dependency. Dollarization, once a means of control, has evolved into “de-Americanized dollarization”—people use the dollar for stability but reject US political influence. Meanwhile, extreme sanctions, such as those imposed on Venezuela, backfired. Instead of crushing resistance, they spurred the growth of a parallel financial ecosystem. This new system includes: - Stablecoins like USDT, used for 80% of Venezuela’s oil revenue - Local fintech platforms (e.g., Brazil’s Pix and Nubank) serving millions - Non-dollar trade channels, such as currency swaps with China - A thriving underground economy and crypto markets US policies—like proposed taxes on remittances and Wall Street’s “de-risking”—have unintentionally accelerated this shift. As the US tightens control, dollar usage becomes more decentralized, echoing the historical decline of the British pound. The very tools meant to enforce dominance are now fueling its erosion.

marsbit01/05 04:03

The U.S. Can No Longer Control Latin America, So They Took Maduro

marsbit01/05 04:03

Life's K-Line Can't Save You from Anxiety, Prediction Markets Can't Calculate the Outcome

In early 2026, a sudden geopolitical event shocked the world: the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an outcome largely unpredicted by prediction markets like Polymarket, where his ouster was priced at only 5–7 cents shortly before the event. This incident underscores a recurring theme: major historical shifts often occur without warning. Against this backdrop, two tools gained attention in late 2025: “Life K-line,” which visualizes personal fate based on birth data, and prediction markets that quantify event probabilities through financial betting. Both promise a sense of control in an uncertain world—Life K-line offers emotional comfort through narrative structure, while prediction markets use price signals to suggest actionable foresight. However, these systems have significant limitations. Life K-line, though marketed as entertainment, may influence real-life decisions, while prediction markets are vulnerable to manipulation and insider influence. More fundamentally, predictive tools are inherently constrained by algorithmic bias, cultural assumptions, and the inevitability of black swan events. Relying too heavily on them can dull intuition and create a false sense of security. Ultimately, uncertainty is an irreducible part of life. Rather than seeking illusory control through prediction, the article argues for building antifragility—adapting to unpredictability and embracing the unscripted moments that define real life. True resilience lies beyond the charts and odds.

marsbit01/05 03:33

Life's K-Line Can't Save You from Anxiety, Prediction Markets Can't Calculate the Outcome

marsbit01/05 03:33

The Block Research Predicts: IPOs Will Outperform Token Launches, Forecasting That Prediction Markets Will Launch Their Own Chains

The Block Research's annual prediction report for 2026 presents a mix of bullish and cautious forecasts from its analysts. Key predictions include Bitcoin potentially reaching $140,000 and maintaining over 50% market dominance, while stablecoin market cap is expected to surge, possibly exceeding $500 billion. Notably, several analysts emphasize a shift from token launches to IPOs for crypto companies, with firms like Kraken and Consensys potentially going public. Prediction markets, led by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, are anticipated to be among the fastest-growing crypto sectors, with one likely launching its own blockchain. Other highlights include the rise of bank-issued deposit tokens, increased institutional stablecoin adoption for B2B payments, and a continued decline in NFT and memecoin activity. The report also foresees a K-shaped recovery, with quality projects attracting capital while low-quality ones fade.

marsbit01/05 02:27

The Block Research Predicts: IPOs Will Outperform Token Launches, Forecasting That Prediction Markets Will Launch Their Own Chains

marsbit01/05 02:27

Based on a16z's Annual Predictions, Which Crypto Projects Are Worth Watching?

Based on a16z's 2026 predictions, several key crypto sectors and projects are worth watching. 1. **Payments & Stablecoins**: Stablecoins are becoming the internet's settlement layer. Key projects include Circle (USDC) for regulatory compliance, m0 for zero-fee USDC issuance, Ether_fi and Plasma as crypto-native neobanks, and x402 for agent-native programmable payments. 2. **RWA & On-Chain Credit**: The focus shifts from tokenization to native on-chain credit origination for efficiency. Projects to watch: Centrifuge, Blackrock's BUIDL, Maple, Plume, Pendle, Ondo, and Backed. 3. **AI Agents & Payments**: As autonomous AI agents transact, payments must become internet-native, instant, and programmable. Key players: Catena (KYA standards), Nevermined (data markets), KiteAI, ASI, EigenCloud, Fetch, and x402 implementations. 4. **Privacy**: Privacy creates user lock-in and becomes a key moat. Projects: Aztec, Nillion, Arcium, Aleo, Walrus/Seal (Sui), Payy_link, Zcash, and Monero. 5. **Security**: The shift from "code is law" to "spec is law" requires runtime enforcement and continuous monitoring. Leaders: OpenZeppelin, Trailofbits, SpearbitDAO, Cyfrin, and Immunefi. 6. **Prediction Markets**: Evolving from niche betting to real-time information infrastructure. Top platforms: Polymarket, Kalshi, FractionAI, Opinion, and Myriad Markets. 7. **zkVMs & Verifiable Computation**: zkVMs are making verifiable computation a viable systems primitive. Key projects: RiscZero, Succinct, Brevis_zk, Axiom_xyz, and ZKML stacks. 8. **On-Chain Wealth Management**: Active, personalized portfolio management becomes automated and ubiquitous. Watch: Veda, Upshift, Midas, Base (Coinbase), Morpho, and Infinit.

marsbit01/04 11:38

Based on a16z's Annual Predictions, Which Crypto Projects Are Worth Watching?

marsbit01/04 11:38

AI Prediction Record: Want to Make Money in Prediction Markets with AI? But It Might Not Even Have Read the Question Clearly

An experiment tested whether AI (Gemini 2.5 Pro and Grok 4 Fast) could profitably predict outcomes on crypto prediction markets, pitting it against successful human traders. The AIs were given event titles, descriptions, and answer choices (Yes/No), with instructions to use web searches for news and expert analysis while ignoring market data. They were to reason logically and output only a final answer. After 21 settled predictions, Grok achieved the highest win rate at 75%, outperforming the humans (66.7%) and Gemini (52.4%). However, analysis revealed significant flaws in the AI's reasoning: * **Temporal Confusion:** Gemini sometimes misjudged the current date, leading to erroneous conclusions. * **Lack of Depth:** Grok often relied on immediate, surface-level information instead of identifying deeper patterns or historical context. * **Over-reliance on Assumption:** Gemini occasionally based predictions on subjective common-sense assumptions rather than the specific evidence found. * **Misinterpreting Conditions:** Both AIs sometimes failed to correctly parse the precise settlement criteria for a market, leading to logical errors despite having the correct information. The conclusion is that while Grok's win rate was impressive, its underlying reasoning process is often flawed and requires significant refinement to be reliably profitable.

Odaily星球日报01/04 10:54

AI Prediction Record: Want to Make Money in Prediction Markets with AI? But It Might Not Even Have Read the Question Clearly

Odaily星球日报01/04 10:54

AI Prediction Record: Want to Make Money in Prediction Markets with AI? But It Might Not Even Have Read the Question Clearly

Based on an experiment comparing AI predictions against human "smart money" on Polymarket, this article investigates whether AI can reliably profit in prediction markets. The author tested Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro and xAI's Grok (via OpenRouter), both equipped with web search, on 21 resolved non-crypto market questions. The core finding is a divergence in performance: Grok achieved the highest win rate at 75%, outperforming humans (66.7%) and significantly beating Gemini (52.4%). However, a detailed analysis of the AI's reasoning revealed critical flaws. Gemini frequently misjudged the current date, leading to erroneous conclusions. Both models sometimes relied on superficial or commonsense assumptions instead of deep, evidence-based logic. A major failure mode was misinterpreting the specific settlement conditions of a market, such as confusing "any files" with "all files" being released. While Grok's results are promising, the experiment concludes that AI often fails to fully comprehend the question's nuances, highlighting a significant gap between raw information retrieval and true contextual understanding needed for reliable prediction.

marsbit01/04 08:59

AI Prediction Record: Want to Make Money in Prediction Markets with AI? But It Might Not Even Have Read the Question Clearly

marsbit01/04 08:59

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