Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Base Contributes 70% of Revenue but Pays Only 2.5% in 'Rent', Superchain May Enter Countdown to 'Breakup'

Base, Coinbase's L2 network, contributes approximately 71% of Superchain's sequencer revenue but pays only 2.5% of its income to Optimism Collective. This revenue concentration is increasing, while OP token prices have plummeted 93% from their peak, despite Base’s TVL growing 48%. The MIT-licensed OP Stack allows Coinbase to fork or renegotiate terms at any time. Base’s minimal governance participation and recent independent infrastructure developments (e.g., a Solana bridge using Chainlink CCIP) suggest reduced reliance on Superchain. Coinbase has begun exploring a native BASE token, which could overlap with or supersede OP governance, potentially leading to renegotiated revenue sharing or full exit. Optimism’s 118M OP token grant to Base offers limited binding value. OP holders face significant asymmetric risk: limited upside from Base’s growth but severe downside if Coinbase reduces payments or exits. Market pricing reflects poor value accrual to OP but not yet the exit risk.

marsbit01/09 04:39

Base Contributes 70% of Revenue but Pays Only 2.5% in 'Rent', Superchain May Enter Countdown to 'Breakup'

marsbit01/09 04:39

How Do 99% of Non-Profit Web3 Projects Survive?

99% of Web3 projects lack cash flow and survive by relying on token sales and external funding rather than actual revenue. These projects often prioritize early token generation events (TGE) and aggressive fundraising over product development, leading to inflated valuations unsupported by real economic activity. The core issue is the "runway period"—the time a project can operate without revenue. Without sustainable income, projects eventually exhaust their resources and fail. Even marketing efforts become short-term fixes that can't compensate for a non-viable product. A comparison with the top 1% of profitable Web3 projects—which maintain reasonable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios—highlights the unsustainable valuations of the remaining 99%. The system incentivizes founders to exit early via token unlocks and sales, regardless of project success, while investors bear the losses. This creates a distorted cycle where financial engineering outweighs genuine value creation.

marsbit01/09 03:02

How Do 99% of Non-Profit Web3 Projects Survive?

marsbit01/09 03:02

Galaxy Research 10,000-Word Report: x402 and the "Leviathan Moment" of the AI Economy

Artificial intelligence agents are poised to transform the internet by enabling autonomous task execution, reducing the need for direct human interaction. Galaxy Research highlights the emergence of Agentic Payment Standards (APS), particularly the x402 protocol, which allows AI agents to use cryptocurrencies like stablecoins for seamless, on-demand payments for digital services, data access, and API calls. Developed by Coinbase, x402 leverages the HTTP 402 status code to facilitate machine-native transactions, eliminating the need for traditional payment rails or API key management. The protocol operates through a stack involving clients (agents), servers, coordinators, and blockchain settlement layers, with recent upgrades (x402 V2) enhancing support for subscriptions, reusable sessions, and service discovery. Early adoption saw speculative activity, but use cases are expanding into data-as-a-service, agent-to-agent transactions, and infrastructure payments. While x402 excels in micro-payments for digital resources, traditional players like Visa, PayPal, and Stripe are also developing agentic commerce solutions for regulated, high-value e-commerce transactions. The integration of APS could significantly improve capital efficiency for software production by replacing subscriptions with pay-per-use models, reducing friction in experimentation and development. In the long term, blockchain-based payments are likely to operate silently in the background, complementing rather than replacing existing systems, and becoming a foundational layer for the AI-driven economy without requiring end-user engagement with crypto directly.

比推01/09 00:08

Galaxy Research 10,000-Word Report: x402 and the "Leviathan Moment" of the AI Economy

比推01/09 00:08

Waterdrip Capital: BTC in One Hand, AI Computing Power in the Other — Gold and Oil in the Digital Intelligence Era

Waterdrip Capital's article "Waterdrip Capital: BTC in One Hand, AI Computing Power in the Other—Gold and Oil in the Digital Intelligence Era" explores the parallel between the 19th-century oil boom and today's AI and blockchain revolution. It argues that AI computing power is the "new oil" driving the next industrial revolution, while Bitcoin (BTC) serves as the "new gold" for value storage in the digital age. The piece reviews market volatility in 2025, including Trump's tariff policies, gold surpassing $4,500, and crypto market swings due to the GENIUS Act. It highlights massive AI infrastructure investments by giants like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and xAI, with global data center power demand projected to rise 165% by 2030. AI is seen as moving from hype to tangible productivity gains, though it may disrupt white-collar jobs. The GENIUS Act legitimizes stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets), enabling AI computing power to become a tradable,抵押-friendly asset on-chain. Companies like CoreWeave and GoodVision AI are emerging as key players in decentralized, efficient compute provisioning. The convergence of AI (productivity) and BTC (store of value) creates a "dual consensus" future, where compute becomes currency and transforms global economic structures.

比推01/08 18:01

Waterdrip Capital: BTC in One Hand, AI Computing Power in the Other — Gold and Oil in the Digital Intelligence Era

比推01/08 18:01

DeFi Gold Rush: 6 Metrics to Filter Out 90% of Shitcoins

Title: DeFi Gold Rush: 6 Key Metrics to Filter Out 90% of Low-Quality Projects This article explains how to evaluate crypto projects using on-chain fundamental metrics, a revolutionary advantage DeFi has over traditional finance. Unlike quarterly corporate reports, DeFi data is transparent, real-time, and publicly available on the blockchain. The author, drawing on four years of experience, including work with DefiLlama, outlines six core metrics: 1. **TVL (Total Value Locked):** The total value of assets deposited in a protocol. It's a measure of trust but should be analyzed alongside activity metrics as it's highly correlated with token prices. 2. **Fees, Revenue & Holders' Revenue:** *Fees* are the total amount users pay (gross revenue). *Revenue* is the portion of fees kept by the protocol (gross income). *Holders' Revenue* is the share distributed to token holders via buybacks or dividends. 3. **Volume:** Tracks trading activity on DEXs and perpetual exchanges. Market share trends within a category are often more insightful than absolute numbers. 4. **Open Interest:** The total value of unsettled derivative contracts, indicating liquidity on a platform. It can collapse quickly during market volatility. 5. **Stablecoin Market Cap:** The total value of stablecoins on a blockchain, representing real capital inflows into an ecosystem, unaffected by token price volatility. 6. **App Revenue & Fees:** The total fees and revenue generated by all applications on a blockchain, excluding stablecoins and gas. It acts as a "GDP" for a chain's economic activity. The article provides a three-step framework for analysis: 1. **Focus on sustained, stable growth** over time rather than short-term spikes. 2. **Track both stock metrics** (e.g., TVL, OI) and **flow metrics** (e.g., Fees, Volume) to get a complete picture of capital deposits and actual activity. 3. **Consider token unlocks and incentives**, as they create sell pressure. High revenue is less impressive if it's outweighed by token emissions. The key takeaway is that these on-chain fundamentals provide a powerful filter to identify valuable projects with real traction long before market narratives catch up.

marsbit01/08 13:08

DeFi Gold Rush: 6 Metrics to Filter Out 90% of Shitcoins

marsbit01/08 13:08

Xianyu, China's Version of the Folk Dark Web

The article "Xianyu: China's Folk Dark Web" explores the unconventional and often hidden digital marketplace on Xianyu, a second-hand goods platform, where users trade restricted or sensitive services through coded language and images to evade oversight. It details how cryptocurrencies like USDT are traded using veiled terms, and how services such as fake overseas IDs (e.g., Palau, Nigeria) for bypassing KYC checks on exchanges are sold. The piece highlights the case of a wealthy crypto influencer selling low-cost tutorial services to recruit users for commission-based schemes. Beyond crypto, Xianyu serves as a hub for accessing restricted AI tools like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. Sellers exploit policy loopholes (e.g., student or military discounts) to offer accounts and subscriptions at low prices, making advanced AI models accessible to many Chinese users despite regional barriers. The platform also hosts absurd yet real services, such as hiring elderly people to confront employers over unpaid wages or providing fake death certificates to cancel flight tickets. These transactions reveal a raw, pragmatic side of internet culture where users seek solutions outside formal channels. However, the article warns of risks: some listings openly trade personal KYC-verified exchange accounts, potentially enabling fraud or money laundering. While Xianyu embodies grassroots ingenuity in circumventing restrictions, it also becomes a space where convenience blurs into ethical and legal gray areas—ultimately reflecting both the resourcefulness and vulnerabilities of digital life in China.

marsbit01/08 10:08

Xianyu, China's Version of the Folk Dark Web

marsbit01/08 10:08

The Boston Story: How Did America's Former Tech Hub Decline?

In the early 2000s, Boston was a leading tech hub alongside San Francisco, but over the past two decades, it has dramatically declined, generating only $100 billion in enterprise value compared to San Francisco's $14 trillion. Despite advantages like top universities (Harvard and MIT) and a history of pioneering companies like DEC and Lotus, Boston’s due to three key factors: 1. A progressive regulatory environment that taxed innovation heavily, including non-compliance with QSBS rules and imposing sales tax on SaaS. 2. A culture of elitism and lack of accountability within venture capital, leading to exploitative practices and a "trust tax." 3. An overemphasis on inputs (talent, labs) rather than outcomes, ignoring ecosystem fragility. The author warns that similar dynamics—regulatory greed, cultural corruption, and input-focused arrogance—now threaten San Francisco and the broader U.S. tech industry. Without a compelling moral narrative for innovation, tech may face public backlash, taxation, and decline, mirroring Boston’s irreversible collapse.

marsbit01/08 09:11

The Boston Story: How Did America's Former Tech Hub Decline?

marsbit01/08 09:11

6th Man Ventures Founder: How to Find the Most Valuable Crypto Projects?

Founder of 6th Man Ventures discusses the viability of the "dual-token + equity" structure, emphasizing that there is no one-size-fits-all answer. The key is backing an exceptional, long-term-focused team committed to building a founder-led, enduring enterprise, similar to Binance’s Changpeng Zhao. He argues that for application-layer projects requiring sustained leadership, tokens often underperform equity. Many DeFi 1.0 founders have departed, leaving DAOs and part-time contributors in "maintenance mode," struggling with slow and ineffective decision-making. In contrast, equity isn’t always superior—tokens enable unique utilities like fee discounts, staking for airdrops, and access rights, which equity cannot easily replicate. "Ownership tokens" currently face limitations in product integration and legal recognition in the U.S. due to regulatory gaps. However, a hybrid model is proposed: an equity entity operates on a "cost-plus" basis to serve a token-driven protocol, aiming to maximize token and ecosystem value rather than corporate profits. This structure benefits token holders with a well-funded Labs entity for development and a core team heavily incentivized via token holdings. Success hinges on trust in the team’s execution and vision, as token holders lack strong legal protections. Ultimately, team quality, credibility, and execution determine value. Over time, consistent delivery and clear value accrual to tokens—through buybacks, governance, and utility—will allow the best tokens to thrive by 2026, even with equity/Labs entities.

marsbit01/08 08:59

6th Man Ventures Founder: How to Find the Most Valuable Crypto Projects?

marsbit01/08 08:59

2026 Neo Bank Outlook: Superform, Veera, Tria - The Three Titans Compete, Who Will Become the Alipay of the Crypto World?

By 2026, the onchain neobanking sector is rapidly evolving, with Superform, Veera, and Tria emerging as key players. These platforms combine DeFi functionality with traditional banking UX, enabling users to spend crypto seamlessly without CEXs while retaining self-custody. Superform focuses on yield optimization, automating cross-chain deposits to vaults across 7+ chains, boasting $144M TVL and 300% growth in six months. Veera, with 4M users across 108 countries, targets emerging markets with a browser-to-bank model, offering staking, rewards, and upcoming debit cards. Tria excels in chain abstraction, enabling frictionless spending with $1M daily transaction volume and $20M ARR, abstracting gas fees and cross-chain complexities. Risks include unsustainable yield subsidies, regulatory uncertainty (e.g., KYC requirements), and competition from MetaMask. Tria is poised for mainstream adoption due to its UX, Veera for emerging market dominance, and Superform for sustainable institutional growth. Together, they represent a new category of non-custodial financial super apps, driving crypto toward everyday usability.

marsbit01/08 08:44

2026 Neo Bank Outlook: Superform, Veera, Tria - The Three Titans Compete, Who Will Become the Alipay of the Crypto World?

marsbit01/08 08:44

Dissecting 290,000 Data Points: We Uncovered 6 Secrets of Polymarket's Liquidity

Based on an analysis of 295,000 markets on Polymarket, this investigation uncovers six key truths about its liquidity. A significant finding is that 67.7% of markets have a lifespan of less than 7 days, with 63.16% of current short-term markets having zero trading volume, resembling the high failure rate of meme coins. These short-term markets, dominated by sports and crypto predictions, suffer from extremely low liquidity, often under $100. In contrast, long-term markets (over 30 days), though fewer in number, attract substantial capital, with an average liquidity of $450,000. U.S. politics is the most capitalized category. The platform exhibits a stark divide: sports markets are either ultra-short-term with high volume or long-term "season bets," with mid-term interest lacking. New, complex markets like U.S. real estate face a "cold start" problem due to high expertise requirements and low volatility, deterring participation. The market is highly polarized; a tiny fraction of high-value contracts (1,000+ with over $10M volume) capture 47% of all trading volume, while the vast majority of markets are illiquid. Finally, the "Geopolitics" category is the fastest-growing, indicating rising user interest. The core insight is that liquidity in prediction markets is not evenly distributed but concentrates around events that offer either instant gratification (sports/crypto) or deep macro bets (politics), transforming Polymarket into a specialized financial tool rather than a universal prediction platform.

比推01/08 08:17

Dissecting 290,000 Data Points: We Uncovered 6 Secrets of Polymarket's Liquidity

比推01/08 08:17

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