Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Myanmar Under Fire: The Dignity of the Dollar, Trapped Youth, and the Underground Financial Market

In 2026, a two-week field investigation in Myanmar revealed a nation fractured by war, economic collapse, and extreme social inequality. The country exists in multiple layers of reality: the official state versus the black market, internet stereotypes versus on-the-ground simplicity, and a brutal economic disparity where a server in Hong Kong earns 18,000 RMB monthly, compared to just 300 RMB in Bagan. The economy is defined by a shattered financial system. The official exchange rate is a fiction; the black market rate of 1:550 (USD to MMK) is the real one. This instability manifests in an absurd reverence for physical US dollars, which must be pristine to be accepted, while the local currency is treated with contempt. Hyperinflation has crippled daily life. Prices have surged 5x in a decade, while wages have only doubled. A day's wage for an adult in Bagan is less than 10 RMB, meaning five bottles of water cost a full day's pay. This pressure forces children into labor. It's common to see 9-year-olds working in restaurants or children begging in streets. For the youth, escape is nearly impossible. The government restricts passport issuance for those aged 18-60, making legal departure a privilege. The only options are dangerous illegal routes or being "bought" as a bride by foreigners. The report concludes with a guide's stark summary of his existence: "A lifetime. No happiness." Men live in fear of being forcibly conscripted, and the relentless struggle for survival leaves no room to ponder happiness.

marsbit02/26 09:39

Myanmar Under Fire: The Dignity of the Dollar, Trapped Youth, and the Underground Financial Market

marsbit02/26 09:39

L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks

The article "L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly: ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks" argues that Layer-1 blockchains face a structural, not cyclical, problem: their ability to capture value through transaction fees is systematically eroded by innovation. Historically, periods of high demand (e.g., Bitcoin congestion, Ethereum's DeFi Summer, Solana's memecoin frenzy) create fee revenue peaks. However, these peaks inevitably stimulate the creation of cheaper alternatives that siphon away this income. The core finding is that open, permissionless networks cannot sustain high fee revenues; profitability is consistently competed away. **Key Examples:** * **Bitcoin:** Fee spikes from congestion (2017, 2021) were quickly mitigated by innovations like SegWit, batching, the Lightning Network, and wrapped BTC. The 2024-2025 bull run saw minimal fee growth despite a 3x price increase, with ETFs providing massive BTC exposure without on-chain fees. * **Ethereum:** The 2020-2021 fee boom from DeFi and NFTs was dismantled by competing L1s and, crucially, its own L2 scaling solutions. The Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844) drastically reduced data costs for L2s, causing Ethereum's L1 fee revenue to collapse by over 95% from its peak. * **Solana:** Its revenue relies heavily on MEV/tips from volatile memecoin trading. This income is now being compressed by private AMMs (which hide liquidity to prevent MEV) and platforms like Hyperliquid, which are moving the most profitable price discovery activity off-chain. **Impact on Token Valuation:** The market is shifting from valuing L1s based on "on-chain profit" to "asset narratives" and "structural capital flows." The analysis suggests: * **ETH:** Now resembles a low-yield infrastructure asset. Its fee compression is structural and ongoing. * **SOL:** While network activity may hit new highs, its matured fee-capturing mechanisms mean MEV revenue is unlikely to return to previous peaks, making a new all-time high price difficult. * **HYPE (Hyperliquid):** Currently benefits from high fees on its perp DEX. However, its fee model is under immense pressure to compress towards traditional finance (TradFi) rates (e.g., CME), threatening its projected high earnings and potentially its token price. * **BTC:** Its security model is unique and inverted. It relies almost entirely on block subsidies, not fees. Miner survival post-halving depends entirely on the USD price of BTC doubling to offset the 50% reduction in BTC-denominated rewards, making long-term security precariously tied to perpetual price appreciation.

marsbit02/26 08:45

L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks

marsbit02/26 08:45

L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks

This analysis examines the structural decline in fee-based revenue capture by Layer 1 (L1) blockchains, arguing that high transaction fees are systematically eroded by innovation, making them unsustainable as a primary valuation driver. Bitcoin’s fee spikes during congestion periods (e.g., 2017 and 2021 rallies) were rapidly mitigated by scaling solutions like SegWit, batching, and the Lightning Network. By 2025, daily fees fell to just $300k, under 1% of miner revenue, despite higher USD transaction volumes. Ordinals and Runes provided brief fee surges but were short-lived. Ethereum’s DeFi and NFT booms drove quarterly fees to $4.3 billion in late 2021. However, competing L1s and L2 rollups (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism) diverted activity. The Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844) drastically reduced data costs for L2s, causing Ethereum’s L1 fee revenue to collapse by over 90% from its peak, falling below $15 million per quarter by late 2025. Solana’s revenue relies heavily on MEV and priority fees from memecoin trading, which peaked in early 2025. However, private AMMs (e.g., HumidiFi) and off-chain order flow (e.g., Hyperliquid’s HyperCore) have captured over 50% of DEX volume, reducing Solana’s MEV fees by more than 90% from their January 2025 highs. Hyperliquid currently dominates perps trading, earning $600 million in 2025, but its fee model (4.5 bps per trade) is vastly more expensive than traditional finance (e.g., CME). As institutional adoption grows, pressure to compress fees will intensify, challenging its token valuation. The report concludes that L1 tokens are increasingly weak as fee-capturing assets. Valuation drivers have shifted toward staking yields, ETF flows, RWA narratives, and macro liquidity—factors more tied to speculative demand than fundamental utility. Bitcoin remains an exception: its security depends not on fees but on continuous price appreciation to offset halvings, making its model uniquely fragile and narrative-dependent.

Odaily星球日报02/26 08:39

L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks

Odaily星球日报02/26 08:39

Nvidia Delivers: AI Anxiety Pauses, Fundamentals Still Soaring

NVIDIA delivered a blockbuster Q4 FY2026 earnings report, with revenue surging 73% year-over-year to a record $68.1 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. This performance, described as "explosive," served to temporarily alleviate market anxieties about an AI bubble, demonstrating that demand for computing power remains robust. Key highlights include Data Center revenue growing 75% to $62.3 billion, driven by strong demand for AI compute. Within this segment, Compute revenue rose 58%, while Networking revenue skyrocketed 263%, reflecting the success of NVLink technology. The company's non-GAAP gross margin climbed to 75.2%, a new high, attributed to improved product mix with the new Blackwell architecture and reduced inventory charges. For Q1 FY2027, NVIDIA provided a revenue guidance of $78 billion (±2%), which implies a nearly 77% year-over-year growth rate. This forecast notably excludes data center compute revenue from China. CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company is on track to surpass its $500 billion annual revenue target, with supply is expected to meet demand through next year. He emphasized that customer investment in AI computing is accelerating, and enterprise adoption of AI agents is soaring. Despite the strong results and guidance, the stock experienced volatility after the earnings call, with some analysts noting that high operating expenses and a change in accounting—where stock-based compensation (SBC) will no longer be excluded from non-GAAP metrics starting in Q1—could impact short-term investor perception of profit growth.

比推02/26 06:40

Nvidia Delivers: AI Anxiety Pauses, Fundamentals Still Soaring

比推02/26 06:40

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the King of Prediction Markets?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the two dominant players in the prediction market industry, collectively holding 79% market share. Polymarket, crypto-native and globally focused, leads in notional volume ($56.07B) and excels in political and macro markets. Kalshi, CFTC-licensed and US-centric, follows closely ($44.71B) and dominates sports betting, which drives 89% of its revenue. Their competition spans capital raises, marketing, user acquisition, and regulatory strategy. Kalshi leverages traditional channels like Robinhood and TV ads, while Polymarket builds a developer ecosystem and uses crypto-style referral programs. Key challenges remain: Kalshi faces potential competition from its own partners (e.g., Robinhood building its own exchange) and state-level lawsuits. Polymarket, after operating fee-free, has begun charging fees—a critical test for its revenue model. The battle reflects a broader conflict: whether the future of information markets belongs to crypto or traditional finance. Both are expanding into each other’s strengths—Polymarket into US sports, Kalshi into political media integration. The industry is still young, and the ultimate winner is yet to be determined.

marsbit02/26 05:11

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the King of Prediction Markets?

marsbit02/26 05:11

Silicon Valley Billionaire's 30-Year Business Experience Review: All the Goals I Pursued in the Past Were Stupid

Silicon Valley billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya reflects on 30 years of business experience, concluding that the goals he once valued—promotions, titles, wealth, and status—were ultimately "stupid." He argues that goal-oriented living creates a trap: achieving targets leads to stagnation, while process-focused living fosters continuous growth. He advises setting boundary conditions instead of goals: avoid debt (it limits freedom), practice humility (to see reality clearly), and surround yourself with younger people (to stay updated). He emphasizes maintaining "optionality"—keeping choices open—and warns against optimizing for salary or social validation. True success comes from embracing learning, taking risks, and ignoring externally defined status. Palihapitiya shares personal lessons: complete honesty in relationships is crucial, and geographic mobility (e.g., moving to industry hubs) accelerates growth. He uses the metaphor of a rat surviving 60 hours in water (vs. 4 minutes) when saved once—highlighting how hope and resilience unlock potential. Ultimately, he urges focusing on meaningful processes over arbitrary milestones.

marsbit02/26 00:19

Silicon Valley Billionaire's 30-Year Business Experience Review: All the Goals I Pursued in the Past Were Stupid

marsbit02/26 00:19

Staking Tokens for Equity: How Does Backpack's 'Users Become Shareholders' Work?

Backpack, a Solana-based wallet and exchange platform founded by ex-FTX member Armani Ferrante, has announced a novel staking-to-equity conversion plan. Users who stake the platform’s native token for at least one year can exchange it for real company equity at a fixed ratio, with 20% of equity reserved for this purpose. The platform emerged after FTX’s collapse, having lost 80% of its initial funding from FTX Ventures. It gradually built a user base through its Mad Lads NFT collection and later expanded into exchange services, securing regulatory licenses in Dubai and Europe. Backpack tokenomics includes a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with 62.5% pre-IPO allocation. The TGE will release 250 million tokens, entirely distributed to users. The project is also negotiating a $50 million funding round at a $1 billion valuation. This dual-token-and-equity model presents regulatory challenges, particularly from the SEC, which may view tokens as securities. The structure risks conflicts between token holders and equity investors. While unprecedented in crypto, Backpack’s team includes former Coinbase advisors who had previously explored similar token-equity hybrid models. This approach aims to transform users into legal co-owners, offering an alternative to the typical “peak at launch” token model. It remains a high-stakes experiment in regulatory and economic design.

比推02/25 14:46

Staking Tokens for Equity: How Does Backpack's 'Users Become Shareholders' Work?

比推02/25 14:46

Will AI Really Cause an Economic Collapse in 2028? New Metrics Reveal Another Possibility

A response to Citrini Research's "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" paper argues against its prediction of an AI-induced economic collapse. The author posits that while AI will destroy the income side of the economy (wages, jobs), it will simultaneously and more rapidly destroy the cost side, leading to a "deflationary prosperity." Traditional economic metrics like GDP and unemployment rates are becoming obsolete in this new "post-human economy." The key measure of future prosperity will be "intelligence output per unit energy," which is exponentially increasing. This transition, though potentially turbulent, is not a crisis but a radical evolution. AI and automation are also seen as necessary to fill a looming demographic gap from a declining global workforce. The new economy will shift value creation towards uniquely human traits like empathy, creativity, and connection, which are not captured by traditional indicators.

比推02/25 12:37

Will AI Really Cause an Economic Collapse in 2028? New Metrics Reveal Another Possibility

比推02/25 12:37

Deciphering the Top Ten Bearish Factors in the Crypto Market: How Severe Is This 'Siege of Bright Summit'?

Title: Decoding the Top 10 Bearish Factors in the Crypto Market: How Severe is This "Siege of Bright Summit"? The crypto market is experiencing a severe downturn, driven by multiple simultaneous pressures: tightening global regulations, escalating geopolitical conflicts, industry leaders exiting, and collapsing retail confidence. This "siege" consists of four major forces. 1. Regulatory Crackdown: The U.S. banking lobby is pushing to ban interest payments on stablecoins, which may reduce short-term appeal but could lead to a compromised solution. The OECD’s Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) has taken effect in 48 jurisdictions, increasing compliance costs but potentially paving the way for institutional adoption. X (formerly Twitter) has tightened ad policies for crypto projects, raising user acquisition costs. 2. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating Middle East conflicts and Trump’s tariff hikes have strengthened the U.S. dollar and traditional safe-haven assets, draining liquidity from crypto. Market uncertainty may persist until potential U.S.-China summit talks in late March. 3. Internal Selling Pressure: Bitmain’s Jihan Wu sold over 1,100 BTC to fund AI data center ventures, while Vitalik Buterin sold ETH to support ecosystem development. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) are also reducing exposure, amplifying panic selling. 4. Emotional Meltdown: Searches for "Bitcoin is dead" hit a post-FTX peak, and stablecoin FUD caused brief depegging. An upcoming expose by ZachXBT could reveal insider trading, triggering further sell-offs. Technically, several indicators show extreme oversold conditions, historically suggesting a potential rebound within months. However, if geopolitical talks fail or major scandals emerge, the downturn could worsen. In summary, while 60% of the bearish factors stem from regulations and geopolitics—and 70% may turn bullish long-term—the immediate focus should be on risk management. The market may remain volatile until late March, but surviving the downturn is crucial for participating in a potential recovery.

marsbit02/25 10:45

Deciphering the Top Ten Bearish Factors in the Crypto Market: How Severe Is This 'Siege of Bright Summit'?

marsbit02/25 10:45

Dialogue with Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb: AI Apocalypse Is Still Far Away, Smart Contracts Are Laws Born for Machines

Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi reflects on the crypto industry's evolution, the intersection of AI and crypto, and surviving market cycles. He discusses the departure of peers like Multicoin Capital’s Kyle Samani as symbolic of the industry’s maturation, noting that crypto space has shifted from rebellion to becoming part of the establishment. Haseeb argues that AI and crypto are complementary: AI agents will require cryptocurrencies for fast, predictable, cross-border transactions, with smart contracts serving as "law for machines." He cautions against overestimating the near-term impact of AGI, drawing parallels to the decades-long adoption of industrial revolution technologies. Reflecting on the recent crypto bear market, including the October 2021 flash crash, he emphasizes the importance of survival—staying at the table to participate in future cycles. His key insight: "The biggest alpha in crypto is survival. As long as you’re not knocked out, you have a seat at the feast."

marsbit02/25 08:51

Dialogue with Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb: AI Apocalypse Is Still Far Away, Smart Contracts Are Laws Born for Machines

marsbit02/25 08:51

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