Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

The Beacon Has Arrived: ETHB Illuminates the Path to Ethereum's Institutionalization

BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Staking ETF (ETHB) launched on Nasdaq on March 12, marking a pivotal moment in Ethereum's institutional adoption. Unlike existing Ethereum spot products, ETHB integrates staking rewards, allowing investors to gain exposure to both ETH’s price and its yield-generating capabilities—addressing a critical gap in earlier offerings. Prior to ETHB, Ethereum spot ETFs failed to capture the asset’s core value proposition as a productive” asset with an annual yield of 3-5%. This structural mismatch contributed to sluggish institutional inflows compared to Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s underlying infrastructure adoption surged, with RWA supply growing 7x and stablecoin supply doubling since mid-2024, as institutions increasingly used Ethereum for tokenized assets and settlements. ETHB also challenges alternative structured products like digital asset trusts, potentially redirecting capital back to native ETH. The launch comes as Ethereum shows deeply undervalued signals—with MVRV below 1 and prices still below all-time highs—while maintaining low issuance (0.8% annually) and strong network utility. Ultimately, ETHB serves as a litmus test for institutional acceptance of Ethereum’s dual role as a yield-bearing asset and foundational layer for tokenized finance.

marsbit03/13 11:58

The Beacon Has Arrived: ETHB Illuminates the Path to Ethereum's Institutionalization

marsbit03/13 11:58

Matrixport Research: After Five Consecutive Months of Bitcoin Decline, Conditions for a Market Rebound Are Gradually Forming

Matrixport Research: Conditions for a Market Rebound Gradually Forming After Bitcoin's Consecutive Five-Month Decline Amid low trading volumes and weak market sentiment, with many investors shifting focus to traditional assets like gold and oil, underlying market conditions are quietly improving. Bitcoin has declined for five consecutive months—a historically rare occurrence—which has often preceded阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebounds) in the past. Similarly, the total market cap of altcoins has fallen to a range that has historically triggered multiple rebound initiations. Although the overall altcoin model has not yet turned bullish, the number of altcoins reclaiming their 30-day moving average and showing improved momentum through quantitative screening has significantly increased. With stablecoin funds flowing back into the market, overall liquidity conditions are also improving, pointing to a potential market inflection window. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin often experiences阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebounds) after three consecutive months of decline in a bear market. A sustained decline of four to six months with little recovery is relatively rare. The market is currently in such an extreme sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term counter-trend recovery. Simultaneously, the valuation of the altcoin sector has entered a range where周期性反弹 (cyclical rebounds) have historically been more likely. When the total altcoin market cap deviates approximately 30% from its 90-day moving average, the market is often in a bottom-building phase, followed by sustained recovery in Bitcoin and altcoins. Although trading volume remains low, the price structure of some altcoins has begun to improve, and Bitcoin is potentially building a阶段性底部 (stage-wise bottom) near $66,000. If prices hold the current support zone and gradually break through key resistance levels, the recovery process is expected to continue. Despite the overall weak performance of altcoins this cycle, some structural changes are emerging. More altcoins are reclaiming their 30-day moving average and beginning to outperform Bitcoin—often an early signal of improved market momentum. The number of altcoins selected through quantitative momentum screening has also increased significantly, with some tokens simultaneously exhibiting improved momentum and fundamental catalysts. More importantly, the market funding environment is changing. The previous dynamic dominated by liquidations and capital outflows is gradually shifting towards capital回流 (inflows). The re-expansion of stablecoin liquidity is a key signal; in the past month, Circle's USDC alone recorded approximately $8 billion in net inflows, indicating that capital is re-entering the crypto market. As liquidity gradually improves, the probability of capital being reallocated to Bitcoin and Ethereum is also rising, which will provide support for a broader market. Overall, while crypto market sentiment remains subdued, multiple key conditions are gradually forming. After a historically rare streak of monthly declines, Bitcoin appears to be building a potential bottom; stablecoin funds are回流 (flowing back), improving market liquidity. Simultaneously, the altcoin market breadth is expanding, with more tokens reclaiming their 30-day momentum threshold. Although the altcoin model has not yet officially turned bullish, trading setups meeting screening conditions have risen to their highest level in months. If Bitcoin confirms a trend breakout above key points, the probability of a broader阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebound) will further increase.

Matrixport03/13 10:14

Matrixport Research: After Five Consecutive Months of Bitcoin Decline, Conditions for a Market Rebound Are Gradually Forming

Matrixport03/13 10:14

From 5 Cents per kWh Chinese Electricity to $45 API Export Packages: Token is Becoming the New Currency Unit

The article explores the concept of "Token出海" (Token Outbound), arguing that tokens are evolving from a technical term into a new monetary unit in the machine-driven economy. It begins by drawing a parallel between historical control over information flow (like transatlantic cables) and today's control over AI API calls and value transfer. Tokens now serve a dual role: as a unit of computation in AI and a means of payment in crypto. A key driver is the rise of AI Agents, like OpenClaw, which shift tokens from being a simple "conversation cost" to a "production fuel" for executing complex tasks. This massive consumption creates a competitive advantage for Chinese AI models, which are often priced lower. The article posits that this isn't just about cheap models, but about China leveraging its vast domestic electricity and computing power to export value globally via token-denominated AI services. The convergence of AI and crypto is facilitated by protocols like x402, which enables machines to natively pay for API calls, and ERC-8183, which allows them to enter into complex escrow-based contracts. This creates a machine-native economic layer where tokens act as the fundamental unit of permission, settlement, and value measurement. The conclusion is that while traditional fiat won't disappear, tokens are becoming the foundational monetary unit for the new agentic economy. The future "power to mint currency" may belong to those who can most efficiently compress real-world resources (like electricity and compute) into tradable tokenized services.

Odaily星球日报03/13 04:41

From 5 Cents per kWh Chinese Electricity to $45 API Export Packages: Token is Becoming the New Currency Unit

Odaily星球日报03/13 04:41

a16z: AI Makes Everyone 10x More Efficient, But No Company Becomes 10x More Valuable

a16z investor George Sivulka argues that while AI has dramatically increased individual productivity by 10x, it hasn’t translated into a 10x increase in company value. The core issue is not the technology itself, but the failure to redesign organizations around it—much like factories in the 1890s initially replaced steam engines with electric motors but didn’t see real gains until they fully redesigned assembly lines decades later. Sivulka distinguishes between “Personal AI” (e.g., ChatGPT) and “Organizational AI,” outlining seven key dimensions where they differ: 1. **Coordination:** Personal AI creates chaos; Organizational AI coordinates teams and agents toward unified goals. 2. **Signal:** Personal AI generates noise and low-quality output; Organizational AI filters noise to find valuable signals. 3. **Bias:** Personal AI reinforces user bias; Organizational AI introduces objectivity and challenges assumptions. 4. **Edge Advantage:** Personal AI optimizes for general usage; Organizational AI leverages domain-specific expertise for competitive advantage. 5. **Outcome:** Personal AI saves time; Organizational AI drives revenue growth. 6. **Enablement:** Personal AI gives a tool; Organizational AI embeds processes and enables organizational change. 7. **Promptless:** Personal AI requires human prompts; Organizational AI acts autonomously without human intervention. True value, Sivulka concludes, will come from rebuilding organizations and processes around AI—not just adopting the technology. The future belongs to companies that build “Organizational AI” systems that integrate deeply with institutional workflows.

marsbit03/13 04:40

a16z: AI Makes Everyone 10x More Efficient, But No Company Becomes 10x More Valuable

marsbit03/13 04:40

How Much Money Has Kalshi Actually Made? Deconstructing the Prediction Market Business Behind 200 Million Trades

In this analysis of Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, the author examines its business model, transaction data, and regulatory landscape. By accessing Kalshi’s public API, the study reveals that the platform has processed over 203 million transactions with a total volume exceeding $41.7 billion. More than 82% of this volume comes from sports betting, positioning Kalshi as a de facto sports gambling platform accessible to users as young as 18. The platform operates a central limit order book (CLOB) where users trade binary contracts that settle at either $1 (if the event occurs) or $0 (if it does not). Kalshi generates revenue through a variable fee structure: Takers pay a fee based on the formula 0.07 × C × P × (1-P), where C is the number of contracts and P is the price, while Makers pay a quarter of that rate. Total fee income amounts to $545.6 million. Kalshi ecosystem includes markets, events, and series, with major volumes driven by events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election and Super Bowl outcomes. The platform’s fee model is compared to traditional sportsbooks, highlighting how its variable structure adapts to implied probability. Regulatory oversight falls under the CFTC, though enforcement remains limited, creating a grey area that allows Kalshi to operate with fewer restrictions than conventional gambling platforms. The analysis also touches on market结算 practices, liquidity incentives, and the broader context of prediction markets, including competitors like Polymarket and regulatory cases such as PredictIt’s legal battle with the CFTC.

marsbit03/13 04:30

How Much Money Has Kalshi Actually Made? Deconstructing the Prediction Market Business Behind 200 Million Trades

marsbit03/13 04:30

a16z: To Crypto Founders, Enterprises Don't Buy the Best Technology

a16z addresses crypto founders building for enterprises, arguing that companies don't buy the "best" technology—they choose the least disruptive upgrade path. Enterprise adoption is often hindered not by a lack of vision or education, but by product misalignment with organizational realities. Decision-makers prioritize minimizing downside risk over maximizing gains, as failures carry severe personal and institutional consequences. The real "buyer" is often a coalition of stakeholders (legal, compliance, risk, finance) with veto power, not just technical teams. Third-party consultants and system integrators act as gatekeepers, legitimizing new tech through familiar frameworks. Founders must tailor pitches to specific enterprise constraints, avoid "rip-and-replace" narratives, and design products that integrate into existing workflows. Successful adoption requires professionalism, predictability, and incremental integration rather than ideological purity. Examples like Uniswap’s collaboration with BlackRock and LayerZero’s Zero blockchain illustrate strategies that minimize risk while extending existing systems. The key is to become the "hedge" option in enterprise experiments, focusing on secure, auditable, and governable solutions.

marsbit03/13 00:37

a16z: To Crypto Founders, Enterprises Don't Buy the Best Technology

marsbit03/13 00:37

The Fall of Crypto Actually Has Little to Do with Scamming Retail Investors

The decline of Crypto is not primarily due to "scamming retail investors," but stems from deeper structural issues, according to a seasoned Crypto OG. Key problems include: 1. **Misunderstanding of Bitcoin’s Whitepaper**: The core concept is not "decentralization" (a term absent in the whitepaper) but "distributed trust architecture" — eliminating the need for trusted third parties. Many projects fail to achieve even basic distributed systems while overusing decentralized rhetoric. 2. **Loss of Incremental Users**: Grand narratives (Web3, Metaverse, GameFi, etc.) have oversold the technology’s capabilities, leading to repeated user disappointment and eroded trust. The market now suffers from a lack of new participants. 3. **Erosion of Community Belief**: Many communities engage in "narrative engineering" — using complex jargon to attract new users while insiders anticipate selling at peaks. This creates a cycle of hype, pump, and dump, damaging overall market credibility. 4. **Premature Financialization**: Crypto prioritized token launches and financialization before establishing robust infrastructure or mature applications. This led to overvaluation and repeated failures when technology couldn’t support inflated prices. 5. **Shift in Attention**: Human attention is moving from social and community interactions (like Telegram and Discord) toward AI-driven engagement. As an attention-dependent market, Crypto is naturally declining as interest wanes. The OG concludes that while Crypto isn’t dead, its current narrative has ended. The real tragedy is exhausting two decades of storytelling in just three years, before the underlying technology was ready. Scams are inevitable in markets, but the absence of new believers is fatal.

比推03/12 18:31

The Fall of Crypto Actually Has Little to Do with Scamming Retail Investors

比推03/12 18:31

DeFi's Yield Winter: Liquidity Glut, Shrinking Leverage, and No Arbitrage Opportunities

The DeFi market is experiencing a "yield winter," with average stablecoin deposit rates on major lending protocols like Aave V3 falling below 2%—the lowest since mid-2023. This decline is driven by a structural imbalance: stablecoin supply has surged, with total market cap growing over 130% since early 2024, while on-chain demand has stagnated. Over 60% of deposited assets on Aave are idle, causing severe liquidity congestion and suppressed yields. Key factors include reduced leverage demand due to low perpetual funding rates, which disincentivizes arbitrage strategies, and diminished cyclical borrowing activity following the contraction of yield assets like sUSDe. Additionally, declining risk appetite in crypto has shifted capital toward safer, traditional alternatives like U.S. Treasuries (yielding ~4.24%), further draining DeFi liquidity. Amid the downturn, protocols like Sky (formerly MakerDAO) have differentiated themselves by integrating real-world assets (RWA), such as Treasuries and corporate debt, to offer stable yields above 3.75%. This shift highlights a broader trend: DeFi must evolve from speculative yield chasing to sustainable, diversified收益 models. The yield crunch may represent a necessary correction, setting the stage for future growth.

marsbit03/12 12:24

DeFi's Yield Winter: Liquidity Glut, Shrinking Leverage, and No Arbitrage Opportunities

marsbit03/12 12:24

Dialogue with Bitwise CIO: Quantum Computing and AI Threats Overhyped, Bullish on the 'Big Four' of Crypto

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, which manages $15 billion in crypto assets, shares his market outlook in a recent podcast. He believes the market peak will occur around December 2024, not when Bitcoin hits $125k, and expects a slower, more grinding recovery from the bear market. The next bull run will likely be less volatile and more gradual. Hougan attributes Bitcoin’s recent sharp decline to long-term holders selling in anticipation of the four-year cycle, not derivatives. While derivatives can amplify short-term volatility, he argues they eventually translate into physical demand. He also notes that Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold is due to central banks buying gold aggressively post-2022, not a failure of Bitcoin’s value proposition. He remains long-term bullish, citing Bitcoin’s greater upside potential. According to Hougan, retail investors are largely tapped out, and the current market is driven by slower, steadier institutional inflows via ETFs. This may lead to a more stable but less dramatic bull market. He sees stablecoins and tokenization as major growth drivers, bringing billions into the crypto ecosystem. He dismisses quantum computing as an overblown risk, noting Bitcoin can adapt, and views AI as ultimately beneficial—whether it boosts productivity or triggers inflationary monetary responses. Hougan is optimistic about Ethereum, Solana, and Chainlink, dubbing BTC, ETH, SOL, and LINK the “big four” of crypto. He advises young investors to avoid meme coins, diversify into crypto index products, and focus on long-term horizons rather than short-term noise.

marsbit03/12 11:51

Dialogue with Bitwise CIO: Quantum Computing and AI Threats Overhyped, Bullish on the 'Big Four' of Crypto

marsbit03/12 11:51

2025 Korean CEX Listing Review: Investing in New Tokens = 70% Loss?

The analysis examines the performance of new tokens listed on major Korean cryptocurrency exchanges (Upbit and Bithumb) in 2025, comparing them with Binance. The study finds that investing $100 in each new KRW trading pair on Upbit (59 tokens) and Bithumb (144 tokens) would have resulted in a portfolio value of only 31% of the original investment by March 11, 2026, equivalent to a 70% loss. Binance (92 tokens) performed similarly with a 29% return. Only two tokens on Upbit (KITE +232.8%, BARD +9.3%) and eight on Bithumb ended in profit. Median returns were -80.9% for Upbit and -82.1% for Bithumb, indicating worse typical performance than the average suggests. Tokens listed in the second half of the year performed better, likely due to shorter exposure to the bear market. Notably, tokens listed on both exchanges (50 tokens) showed nearly identical losses (-69.4%) to those listed only on Bithumb (-68.9%), indicating that multiple listings do not guarantee better performance. The study concludes that the loss is structural: initial buying pressure inflates prices on listing day, followed by a predictable decline. This pattern is global, not specific to Korea or any exchange.

marsbit03/12 11:07

2025 Korean CEX Listing Review: Investing in New Tokens = 70% Loss?