Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

How Much Money Has Kalshi Actually Made? Deconstructing the Prediction Market Business Behind 200 Million Trades

In this analysis of Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, the author examines its business model, transaction data, and regulatory landscape. By accessing Kalshi’s public API, the study reveals that the platform has processed over 203 million transactions with a total volume exceeding $41.7 billion. More than 82% of this volume comes from sports betting, positioning Kalshi as a de facto sports gambling platform accessible to users as young as 18. The platform operates a central limit order book (CLOB) where users trade binary contracts that settle at either $1 (if the event occurs) or $0 (if it does not). Kalshi generates revenue through a variable fee structure: Takers pay a fee based on the formula 0.07 × C × P × (1-P), where C is the number of contracts and P is the price, while Makers pay a quarter of that rate. Total fee income amounts to $545.6 million. Kalshi ecosystem includes markets, events, and series, with major volumes driven by events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election and Super Bowl outcomes. The platform’s fee model is compared to traditional sportsbooks, highlighting how its variable structure adapts to implied probability. Regulatory oversight falls under the CFTC, though enforcement remains limited, creating a grey area that allows Kalshi to operate with fewer restrictions than conventional gambling platforms. The analysis also touches on market结算 practices, liquidity incentives, and the broader context of prediction markets, including competitors like Polymarket and regulatory cases such as PredictIt’s legal battle with the CFTC.

marsbit03/13 04:30

How Much Money Has Kalshi Actually Made? Deconstructing the Prediction Market Business Behind 200 Million Trades

marsbit03/13 04:30

a16z: To Crypto Founders, Enterprises Don't Buy the Best Technology

a16z addresses crypto founders building for enterprises, arguing that companies don't buy the "best" technology—they choose the least disruptive upgrade path. Enterprise adoption is often hindered not by a lack of vision or education, but by product misalignment with organizational realities. Decision-makers prioritize minimizing downside risk over maximizing gains, as failures carry severe personal and institutional consequences. The real "buyer" is often a coalition of stakeholders (legal, compliance, risk, finance) with veto power, not just technical teams. Third-party consultants and system integrators act as gatekeepers, legitimizing new tech through familiar frameworks. Founders must tailor pitches to specific enterprise constraints, avoid "rip-and-replace" narratives, and design products that integrate into existing workflows. Successful adoption requires professionalism, predictability, and incremental integration rather than ideological purity. Examples like Uniswap’s collaboration with BlackRock and LayerZero’s Zero blockchain illustrate strategies that minimize risk while extending existing systems. The key is to become the "hedge" option in enterprise experiments, focusing on secure, auditable, and governable solutions.

marsbit03/13 00:37

a16z: To Crypto Founders, Enterprises Don't Buy the Best Technology

marsbit03/13 00:37

The Fall of Crypto Actually Has Little to Do with Scamming Retail Investors

The decline of Crypto is not primarily due to "scamming retail investors," but stems from deeper structural issues, according to a seasoned Crypto OG. Key problems include: 1. **Misunderstanding of Bitcoin’s Whitepaper**: The core concept is not "decentralization" (a term absent in the whitepaper) but "distributed trust architecture" — eliminating the need for trusted third parties. Many projects fail to achieve even basic distributed systems while overusing decentralized rhetoric. 2. **Loss of Incremental Users**: Grand narratives (Web3, Metaverse, GameFi, etc.) have oversold the technology’s capabilities, leading to repeated user disappointment and eroded trust. The market now suffers from a lack of new participants. 3. **Erosion of Community Belief**: Many communities engage in "narrative engineering" — using complex jargon to attract new users while insiders anticipate selling at peaks. This creates a cycle of hype, pump, and dump, damaging overall market credibility. 4. **Premature Financialization**: Crypto prioritized token launches and financialization before establishing robust infrastructure or mature applications. This led to overvaluation and repeated failures when technology couldn’t support inflated prices. 5. **Shift in Attention**: Human attention is moving from social and community interactions (like Telegram and Discord) toward AI-driven engagement. As an attention-dependent market, Crypto is naturally declining as interest wanes. The OG concludes that while Crypto isn’t dead, its current narrative has ended. The real tragedy is exhausting two decades of storytelling in just three years, before the underlying technology was ready. Scams are inevitable in markets, but the absence of new believers is fatal.

比推03/12 18:31

The Fall of Crypto Actually Has Little to Do with Scamming Retail Investors

比推03/12 18:31

DeFi's Yield Winter: Liquidity Glut, Shrinking Leverage, and No Arbitrage Opportunities

The DeFi market is experiencing a "yield winter," with average stablecoin deposit rates on major lending protocols like Aave V3 falling below 2%—the lowest since mid-2023. This decline is driven by a structural imbalance: stablecoin supply has surged, with total market cap growing over 130% since early 2024, while on-chain demand has stagnated. Over 60% of deposited assets on Aave are idle, causing severe liquidity congestion and suppressed yields. Key factors include reduced leverage demand due to low perpetual funding rates, which disincentivizes arbitrage strategies, and diminished cyclical borrowing activity following the contraction of yield assets like sUSDe. Additionally, declining risk appetite in crypto has shifted capital toward safer, traditional alternatives like U.S. Treasuries (yielding ~4.24%), further draining DeFi liquidity. Amid the downturn, protocols like Sky (formerly MakerDAO) have differentiated themselves by integrating real-world assets (RWA), such as Treasuries and corporate debt, to offer stable yields above 3.75%. This shift highlights a broader trend: DeFi must evolve from speculative yield chasing to sustainable, diversified收益 models. The yield crunch may represent a necessary correction, setting the stage for future growth.

marsbit03/12 12:24

DeFi's Yield Winter: Liquidity Glut, Shrinking Leverage, and No Arbitrage Opportunities

marsbit03/12 12:24

Dialogue with Bitwise CIO: Quantum Computing and AI Threats Overhyped, Bullish on the 'Big Four' of Crypto

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, which manages $15 billion in crypto assets, shares his market outlook in a recent podcast. He believes the market peak will occur around December 2024, not when Bitcoin hits $125k, and expects a slower, more grinding recovery from the bear market. The next bull run will likely be less volatile and more gradual. Hougan attributes Bitcoin’s recent sharp decline to long-term holders selling in anticipation of the four-year cycle, not derivatives. While derivatives can amplify short-term volatility, he argues they eventually translate into physical demand. He also notes that Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold is due to central banks buying gold aggressively post-2022, not a failure of Bitcoin’s value proposition. He remains long-term bullish, citing Bitcoin’s greater upside potential. According to Hougan, retail investors are largely tapped out, and the current market is driven by slower, steadier institutional inflows via ETFs. This may lead to a more stable but less dramatic bull market. He sees stablecoins and tokenization as major growth drivers, bringing billions into the crypto ecosystem. He dismisses quantum computing as an overblown risk, noting Bitcoin can adapt, and views AI as ultimately beneficial—whether it boosts productivity or triggers inflationary monetary responses. Hougan is optimistic about Ethereum, Solana, and Chainlink, dubbing BTC, ETH, SOL, and LINK the “big four” of crypto. He advises young investors to avoid meme coins, diversify into crypto index products, and focus on long-term horizons rather than short-term noise.

marsbit03/12 11:51

Dialogue with Bitwise CIO: Quantum Computing and AI Threats Overhyped, Bullish on the 'Big Four' of Crypto

marsbit03/12 11:51

2025 Korean CEX Listing Review: Investing in New Tokens = 70% Loss?

The analysis examines the performance of new tokens listed on major Korean cryptocurrency exchanges (Upbit and Bithumb) in 2025, comparing them with Binance. The study finds that investing $100 in each new KRW trading pair on Upbit (59 tokens) and Bithumb (144 tokens) would have resulted in a portfolio value of only 31% of the original investment by March 11, 2026, equivalent to a 70% loss. Binance (92 tokens) performed similarly with a 29% return. Only two tokens on Upbit (KITE +232.8%, BARD +9.3%) and eight on Bithumb ended in profit. Median returns were -80.9% for Upbit and -82.1% for Bithumb, indicating worse typical performance than the average suggests. Tokens listed in the second half of the year performed better, likely due to shorter exposure to the bear market. Notably, tokens listed on both exchanges (50 tokens) showed nearly identical losses (-69.4%) to those listed only on Bithumb (-68.9%), indicating that multiple listings do not guarantee better performance. The study concludes that the loss is structural: initial buying pressure inflates prices on listing day, followed by a predictable decline. This pattern is global, not specific to Korea or any exchange.

marsbit03/12 11:07

2025 Korean CEX Listing Review: Investing in New Tokens = 70% Loss?

marsbit03/12 11:07

Power Succession, Military Structure, and Cross-Border Capital: The Iranian Political Network of Mojtaba Khamenei

The article examines Iran's political transition around 2026, focusing on Mojtaba Khamenei's rise as emblematic of structural shifts toward a securitized state. While religious institutions retain formal authority, the Revolutionary Guards have expanded their political and economic influence, controlling key industries and infrastructure. Power succession depends not just on religious legitimacy but also military support and elite networks. Economic resources are distributed through religious foundations and quasi-official entities, intertwining wealth and political power. International sanctions have prompted the use of digital assets for trade settlements and capital transfers, creating a multi-layered financial system combining traditional banking with crypto channels. Mojtaba Khamenei operates at the intersection of these networks—religious, military, economic, and financial—reflecting Iran’s evolution toward a centralized, security-driven governance model where formal institutions coexist with informal power structures.

marsbit03/12 08:03

Power Succession, Military Structure, and Cross-Border Capital: The Iranian Political Network of Mojtaba Khamenei

marsbit03/12 08:03

Trading Everything, Never Closing: RWA Perpetual Contracts — The Final Piece of DeFi Devouring Wall Street (Part 2)

This article explores the emergence and implications of Real World Asset (RWA) Perpetual Contracts (Perps) in DeFi, focusing on their potential to bridge traditional and decentralized finance. It analyzes key projects, contrasting two primary architectural models: the order book-based system, exemplified by Hyperliquid's HIP-3 ecosystem (e.g., Trade.xyz), and the oracle-priced liquidity pool model used by protocols like Ostium. The former prioritizes 24/7 market-driven pricing with oracles for risk management, while the latter favors accuracy and safety by pausing trading during market closures. A significant portion is dedicated to the regulatory landscape, particularly in the US. The analysis highlights the legal barrier of the "Shad-Johnson agreement," which subjects equity-based derivatives to dual SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, effectively blocking compliant retail single-stock perps. This creates a window of opportunity for offshore markets operating under Regulation S exemptions. The article proposes a symbiotic "CFD Broker + RWA Perps Dex" model for growth, where DeFi protocols act as back-end clearing engines for traditional brokers handling front-end compliance and user acquisition. Finally, it examines the external variable of traditional exchanges like NYSE planning their own 24/7 trading platforms. While this could erode DeFi's current monopoly on continuous trading and provide better underlying price feeds, it also forces DeFi to compete on different strengths like higher leverage, permissionless access, and superior capital efficiency. The conclusion posits that RWA Perps represent a fundamental restructuring of global leverage markets, evolving into a high-speed execution layer atop regulated traditional finance.

marsbit03/12 03:41

Trading Everything, Never Closing: RWA Perpetual Contracts — The Final Piece of DeFi Devouring Wall Street (Part 2)

marsbit03/12 03:41

A World Turned Casino Believes Not in Tears

The article "A World Turned Casino Doesn't Believe in Tears" critiques the pervasive "gamblification" of the modern economy, driven by decades of financialization—where capital shifts from productive activities to speculative financial engineering. It traces this trend back to historical policies like deregulation and quantitative easing, which incentivized companies to prioritize shareholder returns (via stock buybacks) over R&D and capital expenditure, leading to "hollow" firms and economic stagnation. This system exacerbates inequality, as wealth concentrates among capital owners while individuals turn to debt, gambling (e.g., meme stocks, crypto, sports betting), and lottery-like behaviors to seek escape, often exploited by cognitive biases like prospect theory. The author warns that this culture masks real economic weaknesses and calls for a return to "re-industrialization"—investing in hard tech and productive companies that solve tangible problems, build durable value, and foster long-term prosperity over speculative gains. The piece urges capital to support industrialists focused on real-world impact rather than financialized metrics.

marsbit03/12 02:31

A World Turned Casino Believes Not in Tears

marsbit03/12 02:31

Crypto Morning Brief: US Plans to Release 172 Million Barrels of Oil in 120 Days, Binance Files Lawsuit Against Wall Street Journal

US plans to release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over 120 days, as announced by the Energy Department. SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum to collaborate on crypto regulatory frameworks. Binance filed a defamation lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal over a report on Iran sanctions. Ethereum researchers demonstrated a "native Rollups" prototype to simplify Layer 2 validation. Across Protocol proposed transitioning from a DAO to a C-corporation, offering token holders equity or USDC redemption. Hong Kong is expected to issue stablecoin licenses to HSBC, Standard Chartered, and OSL. Mastercard's new blockchain payment project includes Binance, PayPal, and Ripple. VanEck integrated crypto ETFs into 401(k) plans via Basic Capital. Metaplanet announced two subsidiaries and a ¥4 billion investment in Japan's Bitcoin infrastructure. Ripple initiated a $750 million share buyback at a $50 billion valuation.

marsbit03/12 01:16

Crypto Morning Brief: US Plans to Release 172 Million Barrels of Oil in 120 Days, Binance Files Lawsuit Against Wall Street Journal