Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Behind the Gold's Pullback Lies a More Significant Issue: The Loosening of the Old System

Gold's recent pullback has drawn superficial comparisons to the 1979 cycle, but the underlying global dynamics have fundamentally shifted. In 1979, gold fell due to extreme Fed rate hikes under Volcker and a renewed belief in U.S. credit stability, which attracted capital back to dollar assets. Today, the situation is inverted. The U.S. faces massive debt, uncontrolled deficits, and a financial system hypersensitive to interest rates. The critical change is the structural challenge to the dollar-centric system itself, particularly the petrodollar cycle. The ongoing Middle East conflict is not an isolated event but a self-reinforcing crisis that disrupts energy flows, elevates costs, and strains fiscal capacities—undermining the dollar’s role in global energy trade. This suggests that the recent gold sell-off is a short-term profit-taking move after a strong rally, rather than a loss of long-term value. The broader narrative is one of a deteriorating monetary order: the U.S. can no longer easily suppress inflation with high rates or assert global dominance as before. As the world reassesses the entire credit system, gold is poised to assume a new role as a hedge against systemic fragility.

Odaily星球日报03/23 12:13

Behind the Gold's Pullback Lies a More Significant Issue: The Loosening of the Old System

Odaily星球日报03/23 12:13

Bitcoin: As supply shock meets demand gap, who drives the market now?

Bitcoin miner-to-exchange flows surged above 8,000 BTC in late January due to operational disruptions and liquidity constraints, but have since declined to around 4,300 BTC, reducing sell-side pressure. Despite this, the Coinbase Premium remains negative at -0.02, indicating weak U.S. institutional demand. Price stability near $68,600 is largely driven by offshore liquidity and derivatives markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped significantly from 1,200 EH/s to 800 EH/s, reflecting reduced mining activity and a shift of resources toward AI compute for higher returns. Miners sold over 15,000 BTC to fund this transition, adding short-term supply pressure. The market now depends heavily on external demand, making it vulnerable to shifts in global liquidity.

ambcrypto03/23 10:10

Bitcoin: As supply shock meets demand gap, who drives the market now?

ambcrypto03/23 10:10

The Self-Destruction of the Startup Bible: The More You Know, the Sooner You Fail

The article "The Self-Defeating Nature of Startup Dogma: The More You Know, The Sooner You Fail" argues that popular startup methodologies—such as Lean Startup, Customer Development, and the Business Model Canvas—have not improved startup survival rates over the past 30 years, based on U.S. government data. The core paradox is that once a methodology becomes widely adopted, it loses its competitive advantage as all founders converge on the same strategies, leading to homogeneity and increased failure rates in competitive markets. The author compares this to the Red Queen effect in evolutionary biology, where continuous adaptation is necessary just to maintain position. Despite the intuitive appeal and scientific claims of these frameworks, empirical data shows no improvement in the survival rates of either general U.S. businesses or venture-backed startups. In fact, the success rate for seed-funded startups securing subsequent funding has declined. The article explores three possible explanations: the theories might be fundamentally flawed; they might be too obvious to require formalization; or they might be self-defeating when universally applied. The author calls for a truly scientific approach to entrepreneurship, one that embraces experimentation, paradigm development, and differentiation rather than dogma. The conclusion is that to succeed, founders must often do the opposite of what popular playbooks advise.

marsbit03/23 08:13

The Self-Destruction of the Startup Bible: The More You Know, the Sooner You Fail

marsbit03/23 08:13

Thousands of people around the world are selling their identities to train AI, but at what cost?

A global investigation reveals a growing gray market where thousands of people worldwide are selling their biometric data—voices, faces, call logs, and daily videos—to train AI models for small payments. Examples include individuals in South Africa, India, and the U.S. earning modest sums through apps like Kled AI, Silencio, and Neon Mobile. While this provides crucial income, especially in economically strained regions, it raises serious concerns about privacy, exploitation, and long-term risks. Contributors often grant broad, irreversible rights to their data, potentially exposing them to deepfakes, identity theft, and unauthorized commercial use. Experts warn that this practice is unstable, offers no career progression, and primarily benefits tech companies in wealthier nations, leaving workers vulnerable with little recourse. Cases like an actor discovering his AI likeness promoting medical products without consent highlight the ethical and personal consequences of this emerging data-for-cash economy.

marsbit03/23 05:56

Thousands of people around the world are selling their identities to train AI, but at what cost?

marsbit03/23 05:56

Goldman Sachs Interprets "How Long Will the Iran War Last": Markets Have Only Priced in "Inflation," Not Yet "Recession"

Goldman Sachs warns that markets have only priced in the "inflation shock" from the Iran conflict but have completely ignored the severe risk of a global "recession." The key bottleneck is the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flow has dropped 97% to just 600,000 barrels per day. Military convoys can restore at most 20% of normal oil flow, and the conflict is likely to persist as Iran views it as an existential struggle. Oil prices could surpass 2008 highs if disruptions last 60 days, with Brent potentially reaching $110/bbl in an extreme scenario. Every 10 oil price increase drags global GDP down by 0.1% and raises inflation by 0.2pp. A 60-day disruption could reduce global GDP by 0.9% and increase inflation by 1.7%. Markets remain overly optimistic about a quick resolution. If prolonged, the focus will shift from inflation to recession: equities would sell off, cyclical assets like copper and the AUD would fall, front-end yields would reverse their hawkish repricing, and the JPY would emerge as the ultimate safe-haven currency. The crisis hinges on Hormuz reopening—not military outcomes—and the timeline is likely longer than priced in.

marsbit03/23 02:48

Goldman Sachs Interprets "How Long Will the Iran War Last": Markets Have Only Priced in "Inflation," Not Yet "Recession"

marsbit03/23 02:48

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

The article analyzes the divergence between gold and oil prices following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. While oil prices surged significantly, gold experienced a decline, contrary to expectations given its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Gold serves three primary hedging functions: against geopolitical risk, inflation risk, and U.S. dollar risk. Since late 2023, gold had been in a strong bull market, rising from $1,800 to over $5,000, driven by simultaneous geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts), inflationary pressures, and a weakening dollar due to the Fed's premature rate cuts. However, after the U.S. "decapitation" strike on Iran, gold prices fell sharply. This was attributed to two main factors: a shift of capital from gold to oil, as investors repositioned portfolios to capitalize on rising oil prices, and a liquidity crisis in U.S. financial markets that forced large-scale sell-offs of gold—a highly liquid asset—to meet redemption demands. More critically, growing pessimism about a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict raised fears of sustained high oil prices, potential global economic disruption, and a possible reversal of Fed monetary policy (delayed cuts or even renewed hikes). This expectation of tighter policy caused gold’s dollar-related hedging function to reverse, overwhelming its geopolitical and inflation hedging roles and leading to a severe correction. Oil prices also experienced volatility. They initially spiked to nearly $120 per barrel post-strike, then fell by 30% on Trump’s hints of a quick resolution, but rebounded as market expectations corrected when the conflict persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained threatened. The outlook for both commodities depends on the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. If it becomes a prolonged war like Ukraine, gold may lack short-term value as monetary fears prevail, while oil and energy assets may benefit. A critical factor will be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, which hinges on geopolitical decisions ahead.

marsbit03/23 02:20

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

marsbit03/23 02:20

Inside Ethereum network’s efforts to become settlement layer for all AI activities

Etherean is solidifying its position as the dominant DeFi hub, evidenced by massive and growing stablecoin volumes, including a $7 billion monthly increase. A strategic shift is underway with USDC supply growing 10% to over $52 billion, partly driven by Circle's AI-focused Nanopayments that enable near-free transactions. This growth, combined with entities like BitMine making massive ETH stakes and strategic investments in AI-linked assets, positions Ethereum to potentially become the primary settlement layer for the emerging AI-driven economy.

ambcrypto03/22 04:01

Inside Ethereum network’s efforts to become settlement layer for all AI activities

ambcrypto03/22 04:01

ZANO targets $17 after 73% surge – Should traders wait for a dip?

ZANO experienced a significant 73% price surge in a week after testing its long-term demand zone at $5.5-$6.0. While the weekly chart suggests a potential rally toward the range highs at $17.2 over the next few months, short-term indicators show signs of overextension. The 4-hour chart reveals a divergence in OBV and an overbought MFI, indicating a possible retracement. Traders may find a buying opportunity if the price dips to the $8.1-$9.2 support region, a high-volume node that could serve as a consolidation area. A drop below $8.1 wouldn't invalidate the bullish weekly structure but could offer a better entry point for long positions.

ambcrypto03/22 03:02

ZANO targets $17 after 73% surge – Should traders wait for a dip?

ambcrypto03/22 03:02

CertiK Test: How the Vulnerable OpenClaw Skill Bypassed Review and Took Over Computers Without Authorization

CertiK's latest research reveals critical security vulnerabilities in OpenClaw's third-party Skill ecosystem. Despite OpenClaw's three-layer review system—including VirusTotal scanning, static code analysis, and AI logic checks—malicious Skills can easily bypass these safeguards. CertiK demonstrated this by developing a seemingly benign "test-web-searcher" Skill that contained a hidden remote code execution vulnerability. It was approved without warnings, allowing unauthorized command execution on the host machine (e.g., launching system calculators via Telegram commands). The core issue is the industry’s overreliance on pre-release scans rather than runtime isolation and strict permission controls. Unlike iOS’s mandatory sandboxing, OpenClaw’s sandbox is optional and often disabled by users for functionality, leaving systems exposed. CertiK urges developers to enforce mandatory sandboxing and granular permissions for Skills, and advises users to deploy OpenClaw on isolated devices away from sensitive data or assets. The study underscores that scanning alone cannot secure high-permission AI agents; runtime isolation and damage containment are essential for safety.

marsbit03/22 02:03

CertiK Test: How the Vulnerable OpenClaw Skill Bypassed Review and Took Over Computers Without Authorization

marsbit03/22 02:03

The Migration of Settlement Power: B18 and the Institutional Starting Point of On-Chain Banking

The article "The Migration of Settlement Power: B18 and the Institutional Starting Point of On-Chain Banking" discusses how traditional finance relies on settlement—not just transactions—to determine ownership of funds. While transactions are instantaneous, settlement requires time, counterparties, and system confirmation, during which users do not fully control their funds. In contrast, early DeFi (decentralized finance) focused on trading and liquidity while avoiding the fundamental question of who defines settlement in the absence of banks. B18, built on Coinbase’s on-chain infrastructure and operating on Base, aims to address this gap by transforming blockchain into a system that handles time, accounting, clearing order, and finality—functions traditionally managed by banks. B18 is not a typical DeFi protocol but an attempt to decouple banking from institutions and encode it into executable rules. Its capital structure reflects this ambition, with support from Paradigm and Wintermute Ventures at the protocol level, GSR Capital for market liquidity, FuturePay for real-world payment integration, and Base Ecosystem Fund builders who design the rules for fund recording, profit recognition, and liquidation conditions. Together, these layers form a new on-chain financial order where code, not institutions, governs settlement—shifting the power dynamics of finance. B18 represents the starting point of this migration. (Note: This is a submitted article and does not represent the views of ChainCatcher or constitute investment advice.)

marsbit03/21 11:22

The Migration of Settlement Power: B18 and the Institutional Starting Point of On-Chain Banking

marsbit03/21 11:22

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