Regulatory Policy

Focuses on global regulatory developments, policy changes, and compliance requirements. It provides in-depth analysis of government regulations and their impact on the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries, helping businesses and investors proactively manage policy-related risks.

Crypto Market and General Reaction to US Tariff Incident

The US Supreme Court's decision to strike down tariffs imposed by Donald Trump has triggered notable reactions across financial markets, including cryptocurrency. Bitcoin led a market decline, dropping 2.52% to around $66,315, with volatility surging to 11.03%. Total crypto liquidations reached $508 million in 24 hours, with BTC alone at $232.94 million. The US Dollar also weakened slightly, falling 0.14% against a basket of currencies. Broader concerns include potential litigation risks, unclear refund processes for over $175 billion in previously collected tariffs, and rising Treasury yields at 4.1%, which may fuel inflation and interest rate worries. Attention now turns to lower court rulings on refunds and potential rate decisions by the Bank of Japan, which could further impact global markets, including crypto.

TheNewsCrypto02/23 11:08

Crypto Market and General Reaction to US Tariff Incident

TheNewsCrypto02/23 11:08

US Supreme Court Has Clipped Trump’s Wings, But Uncertainty Remains for the Crypto Market

The US Supreme Court has reduced President Trump's tariff authority, lowering rates from 15% to 10%, but global uncertainty persists. This has negatively impacted the crypto market, with Bitcoin to fall below $65k and the total market cap nearing $2 trillion after a 4.43% drop. Market volatility remains high, and a correction is anticipated. In contrast, Gold and Silver have gained positive momentum as alternative investments. Experts warn that uncertainty continues to influence economic forecasts and investment decisions.

TheNewsCrypto02/23 07:18

US Supreme Court Has Clipped Trump’s Wings, But Uncertainty Remains for the Crypto Market

TheNewsCrypto02/23 07:18

The 'Abnormal' Business of U Merchants? Defense Points and Boundaries of Determination for Three Major Charges

In a case involving a U merchant trading USDT (Tether) with transactions worth billions, the defendant was accused of illegal foreign exchange operations using virtual currency. Despite the large scale and use of multiple bank accounts, which authorities viewed as suspicious, the author argues that the defendant’s actions do not constitute crimes such as illegal business operations, concealing criminal proceeds, or assisting information network crimes. The article explains that OTC trading of virtual currencies like USDT is not illegal in China, and many platforms and individuals engage in it legally. The key is whether the trader knowingly facilitated illegal activities, such money laundering or illegal forex transactions. For illegal business operations, conviction requires proof that the defendant knowingly assisted in illegal forex exchanges, as in a cited case where the defendant helped convert foreign currency to RMB via USDT. For concealing criminal proceeds, the author emphasizes that the funds involved are often the principal amounts from transactions, not criminal profits, so merely handling these funds does not meet the legal definition. For assisting information network crimes, the crime must involve online illegal activities; if forex transactions occur offline despite online communication, it doesn’t qualify. The conclusion stresses the need for strict legal scrutiny and avoiding presumption of guilt based solely on transaction scale or methods.

marsbit02/23 01:53

The 'Abnormal' Business of U Merchants? Defense Points and Boundaries of Determination for Three Major Charges

marsbit02/23 01:53

Bitcoin Undeterred: Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Hike Fails To Rattle Crypto

Bitcoin remained stable despite former President Trump's announcement of increasing a global tariff from 10% to 15%, effective immediately. The cryptocurrency market showed minimal reaction, with Bitcoin holding around $68,000 and Ether largely unchanged. The tariff hike, implemented under temporary trade laws, is capped at 15% and limited to 150 days, potentially preventing it from becoming a permanent measure. Traders treated the news as a short-term event rather than a sustained economic shock, with no significant sell pressure observed. While the move raises concerns about consumer costs and trade tensions, its immediate market impact appears limited. Crypto investors are monitoring whether the policy expands beyond current legal constraints.

bitcoinist02/22 21:02

Bitcoin Undeterred: Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Hike Fails To Rattle Crypto

bitcoinist02/22 21:02

Bitcoin slips as Trump raises tariffs to 15%, but recovery is still possible

Bitcoin's price declined following former U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of an immediate 15% global tariff hike on February 21st. Although BTC briefly approached $68,000 around the time of the news, it soon retreated, along with Ethereum and broader altcoin markets. Analysts attribute the drop to a stronger U.S. dollar and shifting interest rate expectations, with crypto acting as a high-beta liquidity indicator. Market sentiment worsened, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to "extreme fear" levels. However, historical analysis suggests a potential recovery. Economist Timothy Peterson noted that in similar past conditions, Bitcoin traded higher 88% of the time ten months later, with average returns of 82%. He projects a long-term price target of around $122,000, indicating that the current downturn may be a temporary panic rather than a lasting decline.

ambcrypto02/22 15:01

Bitcoin slips as Trump raises tariffs to 15%, but recovery is still possible

ambcrypto02/22 15:01

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

Several major ETF issuers, including Bitwise Asset Management, GraniteShares, and Roundhill Investments, have recently filed applications with the U.S. SEC to launch prediction market ETFs. These ETFs are designed to track the outcomes of U.S. political events, such as the 2028 presidential election and the 2026 midterms, allowing investors to trade election probabilities through traditional brokerage accounts like Robinhood or Fidelity. Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced forecasts using real-money contracts, where prices reflect the market’s consensus probability of an event occurring. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have demonstrated strong predictive accuracy in events like the 2024 U.S. election, often outperforming traditional polls due to their incentive-based structure. The proposed ETFs would track the price movements of these prediction market contracts, with share values fluctuating between $0 and $1. If the predicted event occurs, the corresponding “Yes” ETF would settle near $1; otherwise, it would approach $0. Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which track asset prices, these are binary outcome products, more akin to options or insurance. If approved, these ETFs could bring prediction markets into mainstream finance, offering new tools for hedging and macro risk management. However, concerns remain about potential market manipulation, public perception influence, and regulatory approval, as the SEC may view them as gambling-like instruments. The move represents a significant test of how “probability as an asset” is accepted in traditional markets.

marsbit02/22 12:46

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

marsbit02/22 12:46

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

A new wave of ETF applications has been submitted to the SEC by asset managers including Bitwise, GraniteShares, and Roundhill Investments. These ETFs aim to track the outcomes of U.S. political elections—such as the 2028 presidential race and 2026 midterm control of Congress—by packaging prediction market contracts into tradable securities. This would allow mainstream investors to use traditional brokerage accounts to bet on electoral results, similar to platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, but within the regulated financial system. Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced probabilities through financial incentives, often demonstrating stronger predictive accuracy than traditional polls, as seen during the 2024 U.S. election. The proposed ETFs would reflect binary event probabilities, with share prices fluctuating between $0 and $1. If the predicted outcome occurs, the ETF value approaches $1; otherwise, it nears zero. Most funds would liquidate after the event settles. This move could significantly broaden participation and liquidity, potentially making prediction markets a tool for hedging policy risks or macro strategies. However, it also raises regulatory and ethical concerns, including potential market influence on public perception and the risk of manipulation. The SEC’s approval remains uncertain, as it may view these products as blurring the line between investing and gambling. The outcome of these applications could signal a major shift in how probabilistic events are traded and perceived in mainstream finance.

Odaily星球日报02/22 12:43

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

Odaily星球日报02/22 12:43

Polymarket Faces New Roadblock As Dutch Regulator Bans Prediction Activity — Details

Polymarket's Dutch operations, under the entity Adventure One, have been ordered to cease all activities by the Netherlands Gambling Authority (Ksa) for offering unlicensed prediction markets, which the regulator classifies as illegal gambling. The platform faces potential fines of up to $840,000 per week for non-compliance. This action is the latest regulatory challenge for Polymarket, creating a conflict between US federal approval and state-level scrutiny. The news coincides with a recent parliamentary proposal in the Netherlands to introduce a controversial 36% tax on unrealized gains from cryptocurrencies and other investments, a move critics warn could drive investors out of the country.

bitcoinist02/22 10:41

Polymarket Faces New Roadblock As Dutch Regulator Bans Prediction Activity — Details

bitcoinist02/22 10:41

Venezuela, Sanctioned and Kicked Out of the Dollar System by the U.S., Turns to USDT

Venezuela, heavily sanctioned by the US and cut off from the dollar system, has turned to USDT (Tether) to manage a significant portion of its national revenue, particularly from oil sales. An estimated 80% of the country's oil transactions are now conducted using the stablecoin. This shift was not a voluntary adoption of cryptocurrency but a necessity due to the inability to legally transact in USD. The Venezuelan government, which once banned stablecoins, now facilitates their use for both corporate and retail payments, including salaries and groceries. However, the use of cryptocurrencies like USDT remains limited in large-scale illicit activities, such as drug trafficking, where traditional cash-based and trade-based money laundering methods still dominate. US authorities have not emphasized crypto in recent indictments, suggesting that digital assets may not yet be practical for moving very large sums illicitly. Nonetheless, Venezuela’s embrace of a digital dollar sets a precedent for other nations under sanctions and may paradoxically reinforce the global dominance of the dollar.

marsbit02/22 06:06

Venezuela, Sanctioned and Kicked Out of the Dollar System by the U.S., Turns to USDT

marsbit02/22 06:06

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