Author: TVBee
The 3-4 Stages of a Bear Market Experience
Bear Market Stage 1: Reaction Phase (Faith Remains)
⬩Approx. Dec 16, 2017 ~ Oct 08, 2018
⬩Approx. Nov 07, 2021 ~ May 12, 2022
⬩Suspected Oct 06, 2025 ~ Jan 06, 2026
In this stage, BTC is falling, but the market cap of USDT is rising.
Funds flowing out of crypto are still accumulating partly in USDT; some people likely hold illusions about the market trend. This is the market's reaction phase to the bear market, the stage where faith still remains.
It is suspected that Oct 06, 2025 ~ Jan 06, 2026 completed this stage.
Bear Market Stage 2: Confirmation Phase (Faith Collapses)
⬩Approx. Oct 08, 2018 ~ Nov 14, 2018
⬩Approx. May 12, 2022 ~ Aug 04, 2022
⬩Suspected Jan 06, 2026 ~ ?
In this stage, BTC may be falling or moving sideways, but the market cap of USDT is decreasing.
Funds flowing out of crypto are now exiting USDT; the market confirms the bear market, and capital begins to exit as the main trend. This is also the stage where faith collapses.
2018 had no major negative events, so BTC moved mainly sideways, while 2022 had Luna + Three Arrows, so BTC fell primarily.
It is suspected that Jan 06, 2026 began entering this stage, with the USDT market cap starting to decrease, and the market beginning to question BTC, its digital gold properties, believing BTC will fall to the 30k range......
However, there are currently no signs that Stage 2 has ended.
Bear Market Stage 3: Accumulation Phase (Faith Sediments)
⬩Approx. Nov 14, 2018 ~ Dec 15, 2018
⬩Approx. Aug 04, 2022 ~ Nov 09, 2022
In this stage, BTC may be falling or moving sideways, but the market cap of USDT is increasing.
In 2018, because the previous phase was sideways, this phase was a decline. In 2022, the previous phase was primarily a decline, so this phase first fell and then moved mainly sideways.
Either funds from selling BTC are no longer primarily exiting, or capital is entering, causing the USDT market cap to increase. The weakest believers have already left, while the steadfast believers begin holding U or injecting capital, accumulating and waiting. Market faith also enters a sedimentation stage.
Bear Market Stage 4: Final Panic (Black Swan)
⬩Approx. Nov 09, 2022 ~ Nov 22, 2022
In this stage, BTC is falling, and the USDT market cap is also decreasing.
This is the final panic stage, mainly influenced by a black swan event. 2018 did not have this stage.
Recovery
After BTC bottoms out, it may gradually move upward or oscillate at the bottom. However, the USDT market cap increases. This is a stage of market recovery and faith rebuilding.
When to Buy the Dip
The earliest should be in Stage 3, when the USDT market cap is rising, using partial positions to buy the dip in batches.
The best buying opportunity, the phase where BTC crashes and the USDT market cap falls, may not necessarily occur; 2018 did not have this phase.
For retail investors, a more ideal buying range might be on the right side, i.e., the recovery stage. This stage features sustained growth in the USDT market cap, and BTC has experienced a bottom and shows signs of stabilization or even upward movement.
Final Thoughts
By comparison, it can be seen that each cycle's Stage 1 is getting shorter, because the market is reacting to the bear market faster and faster.
However, Stage 2 has not gotten shorter. Stage 2 may be related to the impact of negative events. The first half of 2018 had no negative events; it even had the mainnet launches of EOS and Tron. In 2022, the Luna crash followed by Three Arrows bankruptcy made this cycle's Stage 2 longer and the decline greater.
We are most likely already in Stage 2 now; the USDT market cap is decreasing, and the current negative is the Iran conflict. It is still uncertain when this negative will end.
Price-wise, Brother Bee believes the impact of the conflict on liquidity is relatively weak, but US stocks have a correction demand, so the current situation might be between the 2018 and 2022 Stage 2, possibly a downward. Of course, the certainty of this guess is not high; the uncertainties around Trump and Iran are quite significant.
In terms of cycles, Brother Bee's speculation is that around the time of Trump's visit to China, the geopolitical negatives might end. Because Trump's visit to China would mean that regarding countries like Iran, Trump already holds sufficient negotiation chips.
However, whether black swans will appear during the process of communication and coordination between the two sides is unknown. Furthermore, there are subsequent key events like Wash's inauguration and Japan's interest rate hike.
Therefore, when Stage 2 will end still requires continued observation. The first opportunity to buy the dip still requires patience, waiting for the USDT market cap to resume its rise after experiencing a decline. Since USDT's current use is not limited to crypto trading, the changes in its market cap this cycle might be less obvious. Thus, it's also necessary to consider factors like geopolitics and monetary policy.
