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Bitcoin needs ‘significantly higher volatility’ to rally: Analyst warns

Bitcoin remains range-bound, trading between $86k and $93k, a sign of market accumulation that suppresses short-term volatility. According to Jeff Park of Bitwise Asset Management, this calm is problematic. He argues that significantly higher volatility is essential for Bitcoin to gain upward momentum, as current low institutional participation and "horrible" trading volumes are insufficient. Park points to silver's recent surge, driven by paper market dynamics, as a model for the kind of volatility Bitcoin needs. Signs of rising volatility are emerging, with a high long/short ratio indicating bullish sentiment but also elevated liquidation risk if prices don't rise. While Bitcoin is currently underperforming compared to metals, Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas views this as a pause after years of strong outperformance. The broader narrative of debt and debasement remains a long-term driver. For now, Bitcoin is caught between surface-level calm and building underlying tension, with volatility likely to determine its next major move.

ambcrypto01/28 12:02

Bitcoin needs ‘significantly higher volatility’ to rally: Analyst warns

ambcrypto01/28 12:02

Data Estimates Show Polymarket's Annual Revenue Could Easily Exceed 100 Million, Under the Assumption That...

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has begun charging fees on its "15-minute crypto up/down" markets since January 6, with a variable rate structure where fees are higher when odds are near 50% (up to 1.56%) and lower near 0% or 100%. After three weeks of implementation, data shows the platform has accumulated approximately $2.19 million in fee revenue, averaging about $730,000 per week. This translates to a projected annual revenue of around $38 million if current trading activity remains stable. The platform is expected to extend this fee model to other markets beyond crypto price movements. Analysis of the past week’s trading volume shows that the "15-minute crypto up/down" segment accounted for $159 million, or about 9.1% of Polymarket’s total weekly volume of $1.75 billion. If similar fees were applied across all markets, the platform revenue could theoretically reach around $418 million annually. It is important to note that these are estimates based on limited data and current trading behavior. Actual revenue may vary due to factors such as future growth, potential adjustments to fee structures, and differences in user activity across market types. Nevertheless, the move demonstrates Polymarket’s transition toward a sustainable revenue model, with significant growth potential ahead, especially with major events like the 2026 World Cup and U.S. midterm elections likely to drive further engagement.

marsbit01/28 11:43

Data Estimates Show Polymarket's Annual Revenue Could Easily Exceed 100 Million, Under the Assumption That...

marsbit01/28 11:43

The Eve of the Storm: Powell Holds Rates, Trump Announces New Fed Chair?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in its first policy decision of 2026, with markets pricing in a near-100% probability of no change. While this outcome is largely anticipated, the focus has shifted to future policy direction and the potential announcement of a new Fed Chair by former President Trump. Key uncertainties remain regarding the pace of potential rate cuts in 2026. Although the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in late 2025 due to a softening labor market, persistent inflation at 2.8%—above the 2% target—has led to a more cautious stance. The composition of the voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has also shifted, with two new "hawkish" regional bank presidents joining, which may influence future decisions. Chair Powell’s post-meeting remarks will be closely watched for signals on the duration of the pause and the likelihood of further easing. Simultaneously, Trump has indicated he may soon nominate a new Fed Chair, with candidates narrowed down to four individuals. Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income and a proponent of lower rates, is currently the betting favorite. Trump may choose to announce his nominee around the time of the FOMC meeting to shift market attention away from any potentially hawkish signals from Powell and instead emphasize a more dovish long-term outlook. The timing and choice of nominee could significantly influence market sentiment and expectations for monetary policy.

Odaily星球日报01/28 11:33

The Eve of the Storm: Powell Holds Rates, Trump Announces New Fed Chair?

Odaily星球日报01/28 11:33

Pressure Mounts on Solana (SOL): Is a Deeper Red Zone Taking Shape?

The crypto market saw a brief bullish spike, but overall sentiment remains fearful. Solana (SOL) rose 2.75%, trading around $127.32 with a market cap of $72.05 billion. If bullish momentum continues, SOL could test the $128 resistance. However, downside risks are growing. Technical indicators like the MACD suggest bearish pressure, while the Chaikin Money Flow indicates mild selling. The RSI at 56.07 shows neutral-to-bullish conditions, but stronger momentum would require a push toward 60–70. If SOL loses support at $126, it may trigger a deeper correction.

TheNewsCrypto01/28 11:27

Pressure Mounts on Solana (SOL): Is a Deeper Red Zone Taking Shape?

TheNewsCrypto01/28 11:27

Illicit Crypto Flows Shift Away From Centralized Exchanges

According to new research from Chainalysis, illicit crypto flows are increasingly shifting away from centralized exchanges due to improved compliance measures. Criminals are now fragmenting transactions and using decentralized tools such as DEXs, cross-chain bridges, and mixers to obscure fund movements. This complicates tracking and delays intervention. In response, analytics firms are enhancing behavioral analysis, focusing on wallet clusters and DeFi interactions. Law enforcement and regulators are also improving collaboration and standardization. Despite these challenges, the inherent transparency of blockchains continues to aid investigations. The ongoing evolution in both money laundering tactics and compliance technologies fuels a continuous arms race in the crypto industry.

TheNewsCrypto01/28 11:17

Illicit Crypto Flows Shift Away From Centralized Exchanges

TheNewsCrypto01/28 11:17

In-Depth Analysis of Web∣♦️Kvoucher ⟩: Not to Disrupt the Market, But to 'Falsify' the Present

A new project, Web∣♦️Kvoucher ⟩, challenges conventional crypto narratives by focusing on verification and real-value distribution rather than disruption or speculative tokenomics. It deliberately avoids common features like governance rights, ecosystem utility, and speculative promises. Instead, it retains only one core financial right: a claim to distributed revenue—not profit—ensuring transparency and real-time disclosure of earnings. The project positions its rigid, unchangeable rules as a strength, building trust through self-imposed constraints rather than flexibility. It appeals to those seeking long-term certainty over hype. Compliance is treated as a foundational feature, not an afterthought, with regulatory frameworks like Reg D/S integrated from the start to ensure clarity and reduce regulatory risk. Ultimately, Web∣♦️Kvoucher ⟩ serves as a critique of the crypto industry’s tendency toward valuation based on narrative rather than utility. It proposes a more transparent, accountable, and sustainable model for blockchain-based value distribution—aiming to prove that trust and verification can become core assets in a speculative market.

marsbit01/28 11:10

In-Depth Analysis of Web∣♦️Kvoucher ⟩: Not to Disrupt the Market, But to 'Falsify' the Present

marsbit01/28 11:10

Large Businesses Driving Crypto Payments Adoption, PayPal Survey Finds

A PayPal survey conducted with the National Cryptocurrency Association reveals that 40% of U.S. merchants now accept cryptocurrency at checkout, with adoption strongest among large enterprises. Half of businesses with over $500 million in annual revenue accept crypto, compared to 34% of small businesses. The report indicates crypto payments are transitioning from experimentation to routine commerce, with 84% of merchants expecting crypto to become common within five years. Key drivers include customer demand—88% of merchants have received crypto payment inquiries—and the potential to attract new customers. However, merchants emphasize the need for crypto payment setups to be as simple as card transactions, with 90% more likely to adopt if the user experience matches traditional methods. PayPal's "Pay with Crypto" feature aims to address this by offering instant settlement and lower costs through conversion to stablecoins or fiat.

ccn.com01/28 11:08

Large Businesses Driving Crypto Payments Adoption, PayPal Survey Finds

ccn.com01/28 11:08

Hyperliquid takes 60% perp market share: Can HYPE’s rally last?

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is gaining significant attention as its price surged to $33.8, rising 9% in 24 hours and over 50% from the previous week. The rally drivers include reduced sell pressure from major wallets linked to the Tornado Cash case and continued buying from data traders. Technical indicators like the RSI near 90 and a bullish MACD signal strong buying momentum. Additionally, Hyperliquid's perp market share has reached 60%, with founder Jeff Yan claiming its BTC liquidity now exceeds Binance. Exposure to gold and silver rallies via HIP-3, with over $1.1 billion in daily silver volume, further strengthens its position.

ambcrypto01/28 11:06

Hyperliquid takes 60% perp market share: Can HYPE’s rally last?

ambcrypto01/28 11:06

Russian Lawmakers Advance Bill For Crypto Seizures In New Regulatory Push

Russian lawmakers have advanced a bill to formally allow the seizure of crypto assets in criminal proceedings, addressing a legal vacuum that has complicated investigations. The legislation, recommended for adoption in its third reading, aims to recognize digital assets as property under the Criminal Code and Code of Criminal Procedure. It grants authorities the power to seize crypto by controlling physical devices or transferring assets to a secure address, and introduces mechanisms for freezing digital currency. The bill is designed to combat money laundering, corruption, and terrorist financing. This move complements Russia’s upcoming crypto regulatory framework, set to take effect by July, which will allow retail and qualified investors to purchase digital assets through licensed platforms.

bitcoinist01/28 11:02

Russian Lawmakers Advance Bill For Crypto Seizures In New Regulatory Push

bitcoinist01/28 11:02

The Era of Digital Cash Twins: Future Collaboration Prospects of National and Market Currencies

The future of money is not a binary choice between state-issued currency and private alternatives. Instead, a dual system is emerging where Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins coexist and collaborate. CBDCs, such as China’s e-CNY and the EU’s digital euro, are state-backed and prioritize monetary sovereignty, regulatory oversight, and public interest. Stablecoins, privately issued and blockchain-native, excel in cross-border payments and decentralized finance due to their speed and flexibility. Globally, CBDC deployment is advancing with varied approaches: The Bahamas’ "Sand Dollar" focuses on financial inclusion, China’s e-CNY has scaled rapidly, and the EU and UK emphasize privacy. Meanwhile, the U.S. is prioritizing stablecoin regulation over a digital dollar, while countries like India and Brazil are exploring programmable CBDCs for targeted policy implementation. Japan is taking a "wholesale-first" approach to upgrade financial infrastructure. Key initiatives like the BIS’s Agora project and Singapore’s Guardian Project are testing interoperability between CBDCs and stablecoins, aiming to prevent fragmentation in the digital monetary system. Rather than competing, state and market currencies are forming a collaborative framework—CBDCs providing stability and control, and stablecoins enabling innovation and global reach.

marsbit01/28 11:01

The Era of Digital Cash Twins: Future Collaboration Prospects of National and Market Currencies

marsbit01/28 11:01

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