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Bitcoin: Why analysts warn BTC could drop to $38K in current cycle

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a recent brief positive shift in the Coinbase Premium, indicating a potential return of U.S. investor demand for the first time since December. However, analysts caution this may be a fakeout and that the premium must remain positive for several days to confirm a true recovery. Market volatility is elevated, with realized volatility reaching its highest level since 2022, signaling significant price swings. Options data from Glassnode shows high implied volatility, indicating the market is anticipating a potential 14% price move in the next month. The put skew in options further suggests traders are hedging against a possible downturn. Analyst projections, based on historical cycle drawdowns, warn that Bitcoin could drop to $38k in the current cycle, representing a 70%–75% decline from its all-time high. Current evidence suggests the market bottom has likely not yet been reached.

ambcrypto02/28 21:01

Bitcoin: Why analysts warn BTC could drop to $38K in current cycle

ambcrypto02/28 21:01

Hyperliquid defies altcoin weakness: What’s driving HYPE’s demand?

Despite unfavorable market conditions for most altcoins, with the Altcoin Season Index at only 34/100, Hyperliquid (HYPE) is showing notable resilience. While major peers like Ethereum and Solana weakened sharply, HYPE traded near $26.71, holding key support levels. This strength is driven by Hyperliquid's fundamentals: its TVL surged from near zero in early 2024 to over $6 billion by late 2025, and protocol fees frequently spike between $6 million and $12 million, reflecting sustained trading activity. The protocol's perpetual DEX generates strong real volume, and its Coinbase listing has expanded institutional access. Additionally, Hyperliquid Strategies ($PURR) holds roughly $356 million in unrealized gains, standing out as the only major strategy in positive territory. Whale accumulation via OTC desks, such as a recent $6.06 million purchase through Galaxy Digital, indicates deliberate institutional scaling, tightening circulating supply and strengthening demand-side pressure.

ambcrypto02/28 20:01

Hyperliquid defies altcoin weakness: What’s driving HYPE’s demand?

ambcrypto02/28 20:01

Mt. Gox Ex-CEO Wants Bitcoin’s Rules Rewritten To Claw Back $5B In Stolen Coins

Former Mt. Gox CEO Mark Karpelès has proposed a hard fork of the Bitcoin network to recover approximately 80,000 BTC (worth over $5 billion) stolen in the 2014 collapse of the exchange. The coins remain untouched in a single wallet for over 15 years. Karpelès argues this change is necessary to break a deadlock with the trustee overseeing creditor repayments, who refuses to act without community support for such a rule change. The proposal has faced swift criticism, with opponents warning it would undermine Bitcoin’s core principle of immutability and set a dangerous precedent for future interventions. The long-awaited recovery for thousands of creditors remains unresolved after more than a decade.

bitcoinist02/28 19:02

Mt. Gox Ex-CEO Wants Bitcoin’s Rules Rewritten To Claw Back $5B In Stolen Coins

bitcoinist02/28 19:02

Ethereum price prediction: What’s next as ETH loses $1,900 support?

The article analyzes Ethereum's (ETH) sharp price decline, which broke below the key $1,900 support level due to geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel that triggered a market-wide selloff. The next critical support is identified at $1,800; a break below this could lead to further declines toward $1,500, potentially damaging ETH's long-term bullish structure. However, the monthly chart shows ETH is testing a crucial ascending trendline—holding $1,800 could keep the macro bullish thesis intact and allow a rebound toward $2,100. On-chain data reveals a transaction surge similar to the 2017 cycle, which historically preceded a major bull market. Additionally, declining exchange reserves suggest accumulation and long-term conviction among some investors despite high volatility. In summary, ETH's price action at $1,800 is pivotal for its near-term direction.

ambcrypto02/28 18:02

Ethereum price prediction: What’s next as ETH loses $1,900 support?

ambcrypto02/28 18:02

Examining if Story can recover after IP’s 2-month price slump

Examining if Story (IP) can recover after a 2-month price slump. The crypto market fell over 3.5% amid fears from the Israel-Iran conflict, with IP dropping 12% and trading volume declining 16%. IP has lost over 90% of its value from its peak and is trading within a descending trend channel, now approaching the $0.80 support level. Technical indicators show the RSI is oversold at 17.29, suggesting potential bear exhaustion, but the MACD indicates growing seller momentum. On-chain data reveals a significant decline in active accounts and gas fees spent, indicating weaker network activity. The oversold RSI might attract buyers, but current market fear could push prices lower. The reaction around $0.80 will be critical for IP's next price direction.

ambcrypto02/28 17:01

Examining if Story can recover after IP’s 2-month price slump

ambcrypto02/28 17:01

Morgan Stanley Files For Bank Charter To Offer Crypto Custody And Staking Services — Report

Morgan Stanley has filed an application for a national bank charter to offer crypto custody, trading, and staking services through its subsidiary, Morgan Stanley Digital Trust. This move, reported on February 27th, follows the firm's recent strategic push into digital assets, including filing for Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana ETFs and appointing a head of digital asset strategy. The bank aims to provide these services across the U.S., with its main office in New York. This development reflects a broader trend of Wall Street firms expanding into crypto amid growing regulatory support. Meanwhile, the global crypto market cap has declined over 2% to $2.34 trillion.

bitcoinist02/28 17:01

Morgan Stanley Files For Bank Charter To Offer Crypto Custody And Staking Services — Report

bitcoinist02/28 17:01

Anthropic Ban Controversy, OpenAI's Hundred-Billion Financing Dispute: What Is the Overseas Crypto Circle Discussing Today?

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has witnessed a range of discussions from macro trends to ecosystem-specific developments. Key topics include the controversy over AI and national security boundaries, debates around OpenAI's record $110 billion private fundraising, and the potential impact of AI tools on tech employment. Anthropic refused a Pentagon request to remove safety restrictions on autonomous weapons and mass surveillance in its models, leading to a terminated $200M government contract and a divided public response. OpenAI secured massive funding from investors like NVIDIA and Amazon, though its significant losses sparked concerns about a potential tech bubble. Block's 70% engineering team layoffs, attributed to AI efficiency gains, intensified debates on AI's effect on jobs. In ecosystem news, Ethereum community showed optimism as Vitalik Buterin outlined a roadmap with specific timelines for ZK-EVM integration by 2026-2027. Morpho outperformed AAVE, with some attributing it to simpler governance. Solana integrated with SoFi bank, enabling 13.7M users to hold SOL directly. Base ecosystem saw experiments with AI Agents for trading and social interactions. Other notable events included Paradigm's planned $1.5B fund expansion into AI and robotics, Bitwise's XRP ETF application, and OpenAI firing an employee for insider trading on prediction markets. Hyperliquid emerged as the only profitable Digital Asset Treasury project, and regulatory discussions around prediction markets continued.

marsbit02/28 16:13

Anthropic Ban Controversy, OpenAI's Hundred-Billion Financing Dispute: What Is the Overseas Crypto Circle Discussing Today?

marsbit02/28 16:13

Here’s why OpenAI’s $110B raise is a major headwind for crypto

The race for AI dominance is accelerating, particularly among U.S. tech firms, as illustrated by recent FUD surrounding Anthropic. OpenAI’s $110 billion capital raise reinforces U.S. investment in AI infrastructure, which may indirectly pressure liquidity in the crypto market. This comes at an unfavorable time for crypto, as Bitcoin’s 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1.0, indicating that realized losses exceed gains—a sign of deteriorating investor profitability and tighter liquidity. Historically, such conditions reduce risk appetite and limit capital inflows into crypto. Meanwhile, capital continues flowing into tech equities, giving them a structural liquidity advantage over digital assets, a resilience currently absent in crypto markets.

ambcrypto02/28 16:02

Here’s why OpenAI’s $110B raise is a major headwind for crypto

ambcrypto02/28 16:02

$190 Million In Crypto Longs Caught Off Guard As Bitcoin Retraces Under $66,000

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced significant liquidations totaling $268 million as Bitcoin's price dropped below $66,000. Of these, $188.5 million were long positions, reflecting the impact of the market downturn. Ethereum led in liquidations with $88 million, slightly ahead of Bitcoin's $86 million, likely due to its higher volatility. Despite the sell-off, Bitcoin spot ETFs are on track to break a five-week outflow streak, with net inflows of $815 million this week. Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,600, down 3% over the day.

bitcoinist02/28 15:02

$190 Million In Crypto Longs Caught Off Guard As Bitcoin Retraces Under $66,000

bitcoinist02/28 15:02

Bitcoin volatility hits 2022 high as short-term holders yield – Will $65K hold?

Bitcoin has entered a period of heightened volatility, with its 30-day realized volatility on Binance reaching 0.83, the highest level since 2022. This shift follows a period of relative stability in late 2025. The increased volatility is driven by intense selling pressure from Short-Term Holders, who are realizing significant losses—averaging over $1.26 billion daily, with spikes above $2.4 billion. This selling is reminiscent of the stress seen during the 2022 FTX collapse. As BTC tests the key support zone between $65,000 and $70,000—a dense cost-basis area for recent buyers—the market reflects a struggle between sellers pushing for lower prices and buyers accumulating supply. The elevated volatility is interpreted as a sign of capitulation, potentially leading to seller exhaustion. For stability to return, a drop in volatility below 0.60 and a reduction in loss realization are needed; otherwise, the current range risks becoming a prolonged liquidity trap.

ambcrypto02/28 15:02

Bitcoin volatility hits 2022 high as short-term holders yield – Will $65K hold?

ambcrypto02/28 15:02

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