a16z Charts of the Week: AI Costs Halved and Usage Doubled This Year, Major Life Milestones for 30-Year-Olds in the US Delayed Across the Board
a16z's Charts of the Week explores four key trends. First, while a "DExit" (Delaware Exodus) narrative exists due to high-profile companies leaving over legal concerns, data shows a more complex reality. Delaware's overall share of U.S. businesses has actually grown, though Wyoming has seen a surge in LLC registrations.
Second, AI demonstrates the Jevons Paradox: as the cost to process AI tokens halved this year, usage doubled. Demand for older GPU rentals (H100, A100) is also rising, contradicting predictions of a compute glut. Historical parallels suggest the full economic impact of AI may take time to materialize.
Third, AI capital expenditure is massive, comparable to annual U.S. bank lending and significantly larger than U.S. corporate tax income or the military budget of any non-U.S. G7 nation.
Fourth, the prediction market Kalshi is outperforming professional forecasters and futures markets in predicting the Federal Funds Rate, providing a valuable high-frequency, probabilistic benchmark.
Finally, data shows a stark delay in life milestones for 30-year-olds in the U.S. Since the 1980s, far fewer are living independently, married, living with children, or owning a home. The only exception is college attainment, which has nearly doubled since 1995, though the value of a degree is increasingly questioned.
marsbit03/01 02:49
