Hormuz Strait Sparks Oil War, Will the Fed Cut Rates in June First?
U.S. February CPI data showed inflation remained at 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.5%, indicating persistent price pressures. The report, collected before U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran, did not fully reflect potential energy price impacts from recent geopolitical tensions. Morgan Stanley maintains expectations for two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in June and September, though rising oil prices could delay this timeline. Market probabilities currently favor a 64% chance of a June cut.
Escalating military conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran has heightened risks of a major oil supply shock. Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments, has already driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel. A prolonged closure could push prices to $150 or higher, reminiscent of 1970s-style energy crises, potentially forcing the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer.
Bitcoin continues to trade between $54,000 and $78,400, showing relative resilience compared to traditional assets like stocks and bonds. While short-term holders are selling at a loss—a typical bearish signal—crypto market leverage has significantly reduced, decreasing forced selling pressure. The upcoming FOMC meeting remains a key catalyst for both traditional and crypto markets.
marsbit03/12 06:00
