SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

Odaily星球日报Опубликовано 2024-10-14Обновлено 2024-10-14

Введение

上周美国经济数据相对坚挺,CPI和PPI均走强。对于数据的影响,市场起初有些游移不定,但最终仍认定”核心“通胀的趋势保持不变,收益率曲线走陡的趋势也仍在继续...

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

上周美国经济数据相对坚挺,CPI 和 PPI 均走强。对于数据的影响,市场起初有些游移不定,但最终仍认定”核心“通胀的趋势保持不变,收益率曲线走陡的趋势也仍在继续。美国股市创下历史新高,高 beta 股和外汇进一步突破,市场仍预计 12 月降息 25 个基点的可能性超过 85% ,花旗宏观策略分析师表示“极度看好股票”,同时高盛在过去几周一直在上调美国和中国股票的目标价格。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

中国方面,周末备受期待的财政部新闻发布会好坏参半,没有明确提及具体的刺激政策规模,总体上缺乏实施细节,也没有宣布刺激零售消费的举措。尽管铁矿石、原油和 A 股在周一早盘下跌,但价格在午休前已经强劲反弹,短期内中国散户资金仍可能会保持“逢低买入”的强劲动能。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

美国股市方面,JPM 以非常强劲的表现拉开了第三季度财报季的序幕,这家银行业巨头在公布利息收入意外增长,并上调收入预测后,股价上涨了 5% 。整体 KBW 银行指数也升至 2022 年 4 月以来的最高水平,预计收益率曲线走陡的趋势也将在未来几个季度进一步推动银行业的收入增长。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

在加密货币方面,尽管 SPX 一直创下新高,但加密货币的表现却恰恰相反,价格仍在区间内难以突破。美国股市正在尽最大努力推高加密货币价格,但我们仍然认为,在更令人兴奋的叙事出现之前,价格上涨的道路将会很漫长。 在价格长时间陷入区间的同时,交易员仍然倾向卖出波动率以及创造收益。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

随著中国股市从周末的失望情绪中反弹,今天上午 BTC 价格确实跃升至 6.4 万美元以上,风险情绪可能仍会保持“买入一切”模式,直到情况出现变化。随著我们进入竞选活动的最后几周,上周五强劲的 BTC ETF 资金流入或许是一个正面的信号,不过在价格创下新高之前,可能仍需要耐心等待。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:Record#45

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