新美联储通讯社:美联储对6月不加息持开放态度,但否认加息已经结束

华尔街见闻Опубликовано 2023-05-22Обновлено 2023-05-22

Введение

明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari表示,可能支持央行在下次会议上不加息,美联储主席鲍威尔等其他高官暗示,美联储可能会跳过加息,以更好地研究快速加息的潜在滞后效应。达拉斯联储主席Lorie Logan提出,6月跳过加息行动,7月恢复加息。

美联储主席鲍威尔放鸽的同一天,素来被视为“美联储喉舌”、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos采访了今年有FOMC投票权的明尼阿波利斯联储主席Neel Kashkari。

上周五,Kashkari在接受Timiraos采访时表示,他可能支持央行在下次会议上不加息,以便给予官员更多时间评估过去加息的影响和通胀前景。他表示:

我愿意接受这样的想法,即我们可以从现在开始慢一点。

美联储内部对于6月加息幅度的分歧不断加大,少数官员支持继续加息,鲍威尔等其他高官暗示,美联储可能会跳过加息,以更好地研究快速加息的潜在滞后效应。达拉斯联储主席Lorie Logan提出,6月跳过加息行动,7月恢复加息。

Kashkari认为,加息并未结束:

我反对任何宣称(加息)已经结束的言论。如果委员会因为想获得更多信息而选择(6月)不加息,我可以理解。

在我看来,跳过(加息)来获取更多信息,与说“嘿,我们认为我们已经完成(加息)了”完全不同。

Kashkari表示,美联储加息影响滞后以及美国银行业危机导致银行融资成本上升,他对这两个因素可能造成的信贷紧缩非常敏感。

Kashkari还指出,虽然通胀没有像官员们预期的那样迅速下降,但它似乎确实在下降:

至少情况没有变得更糟。再加上银行业的不确定性,压力真的已经过去了吗?还会有更多的压力出现吗?我认为这确实给了我们一些理由说,“嘿,让我们开慢一点”。

疫情爆发前,Kashkari是最鸽派的FOMC成员之一,但去年美联储开启激进加息周期时,他迅速转鹰并倾向于快速收紧政策。Kashkari拥有今年FOMC的投票权。

Kashkari表示,他赞同继续加息,因为通胀高于官员预期的时间已经更长了。他说:

对普通民众来说,将通胀率控制在2%(以上)的成本要比控制在2%的成本高得多。

因此,我宁愿犯一个更鹰派一点的错误,也不愿后悔过去过于那样的鸽派。

银行业危机叠加美国债务上限的影响,近期美债收益率曲线倒挂加剧。对此,Kashkari表示:

毫无疑问,收益率曲线倒挂不利于银行。这违反了它们商业模式的基本面,而且倒挂的时间越长,银行面临的环境就越具挑战性。

Kashkari还说,这些压力的严重程度与通胀前景有关。如果通胀迅速放缓,美联储或许能够在明年初降低利率,这将缓解银行的压力。

然而,他表示,如果高通胀持续更久,导致美联储将利率维持在较高水平更长时间,或继续上调利率,那么银行业的压力“可能会变得更加严重”。

上周五,鲍威尔在一个小组讨论上表示,对6月暂停加息持开放态度,预警银行业压力波及更广泛经济。

有分析称,这说明银行业危机后,鲍威尔开始释放“保持耐心”的利率路径信号。Timiraos也称,鲍威尔点明银行业压力将影响货币决策。

Timiraos还说,美联储“三号人物”、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在鲍威尔讲话前发表演讲,表明疫情“并未改变对中性利率的模型估计”,即“没有证据表明极低的中性利率时代已经结束”。

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