2026-04-22 Quarta

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AI Prediction Record: Want to Make Money in Prediction Markets with AI? But It Might Not Even Have Read the Question Clearly

Based on an experiment comparing AI predictions against human "smart money" on Polymarket, this article investigates whether AI can reliably profit in prediction markets. The author tested Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro and xAI's Grok (via OpenRouter), both equipped with web search, on 21 resolved non-crypto market questions. The core finding is a divergence in performance: Grok achieved the highest win rate at 75%, outperforming humans (66.7%) and significantly beating Gemini (52.4%). However, a detailed analysis of the AI's reasoning revealed critical flaws. Gemini frequently misjudged the current date, leading to erroneous conclusions. Both models sometimes relied on superficial or commonsense assumptions instead of deep, evidence-based logic. A major failure mode was misinterpreting the specific settlement conditions of a market, such as confusing "any files" with "all files" being released. While Grok's results are promising, the experiment concludes that AI often fails to fully comprehend the question's nuances, highlighting a significant gap between raw information retrieval and true contextual understanding needed for reliable prediction.

marsbit01/04 08:59

AI Prediction Record: Want to Make Money in Prediction Markets with AI? But It Might Not Even Have Read the Question Clearly

marsbit01/04 08:59

2025 Year in Review Special: OKX's Public Chain Friends

"OKX Chain Friends 2025: A Year in Review" highlights the key achievements and collaborations between OKX and major public blockchains throughout the year. The focus shifted from grand narratives to tangible metrics like real user growth, on-chain capital, and developer retention. Key partnerships and their milestones include: - **Optimism**: Became a core enterprise infrastructure, supporting 62.1% of Ethereum L2 activity and $6.1B in stablecoins. OKX migrated XLayer to the OP Stack. - **Base**: Achieved 150 mgas/s throughput, sub-cent fees, and secured over $13B in assets with strong OKX wallet and DEX integration. - **Unichain**: Surpassed $750M in daily DEX volume and $9B TVL, with OKX integrating its Trading API. - **Aptos**: Rebuilt its foundation and launched industry-shaping products like Shelby, supported by OKX's global reach. - **Sei**: Surpassed 13.67M unique active wallets and 4B transactions, with enhanced visibility in Asia via OKX Japan. - **Sonic**: Processed over 100M transactions with zero downtime, raised $10M, and deepened DeFi integrations with OKX's support. - **ZetaChain**: Scaled to 11.5M users and 223M transactions, aligning with MiCAR and expanding integrations with OKX from its testnet phase. The overarching theme is a maturation towards practical infrastructure, shared liquidity, developer tools, and real-world adoption, with OKX serving as a critical partner for growth and global expansion.

marsbit01/04 08:50

2025 Year in Review Special: OKX's Public Chain Friends

marsbit01/04 08:50

Solana 2025 Report Card: Annual Revenue of $1.5 Billion, Surpassing the Combined Total of 'Hyperliquid + Ethereum'

Solana's 2025 Performance: $1.5B in Annual Revenue, Outpacing Ethereum and Hyperliquid Combined In 2025, Solana emerged as the top-performing blockchain by key financial and usage metrics. According to Nansen, Solana's on-chain fee revenue reached $603 million, surpassing Tron ($581M) and Ethereum ($514M). The network also recorded over 10.5 billion active addresses and 230.1 billion transactions. Blockworks Research data shows Solana's total annual revenue exceeded $1.5 billion, outperforming Hyperliquid ($780M) and Ethereum ($690M) combined, while maintaining a median transaction cost below $0.01. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko attributed this success to capacity growth and cost efficiency. Additionally, Solana's spot trading volume hit $1.6 trillion, exceeding all centralized exchanges except Binance. JupiterExchange data indicates Solana's share of total crypto trading volume grew from 1% in 2022 to 12% in 2025. Solana's revenue structure includes base fees (burned for deflation), priority fees (for validators), MEV income, and minor sources like storage fees. Approximately 50% of fees are burned, benefiting all SOL holders through deflation, while the rest rewards validators. The report highlights that public blockchains, perpetual DEXs (like Hyperliquid with $908M revenue), and launchpads (like Pump.fun with $549M revenue) remain among crypto's most profitable sectors, second only to stablecoins.

marsbit01/04 08:43

Solana 2025 Report Card: Annual Revenue of $1.5 Billion, Surpassing the Combined Total of 'Hyperliquid + Ethereum'

marsbit01/04 08:43

They Missed $2 Million Because Maduro Wasn't Supposed to Be Home for the New Year

On the early morning of January 3, 2026, US special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at his residence and extradited him to the United States. Prior to the raid, several anonymous accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket placed large bets on the highly unlikely outcome that Maduro would lose power before January 31, 2026, turning a significant profit once the operation succeeded. Three new wallets, with no prior history, collectively gained over $600,000, suggesting possible insider trading based on confidential intelligence. Further analysis revealed that the operation was originally scheduled for December 29, 2025, but was delayed due to severe weather. Two other traders who had placed early large bets on Maduro’s removal in 2025 suffered major losses when the operation was postponed. However, after learning the raid was rescheduled for January 3, they placed new bets and managed to recover some profits. One trader, Chiwawas, missed out on potential earnings of $750,000 due to the delay. The incident highlights how Polymarket has become a platform where individuals with privileged information can exploit timing and knowledge gaps for financial gain.

marsbit01/04 08:40

They Missed $2 Million Because Maduro Wasn't Supposed to Be Home for the New Year

marsbit01/04 08:40

Solana 2025 Report Card: Annual Revenue of $1.5 Billion, Surpassing the Combined Total of 'Hyperliquid + Ethereum'

Solana's 2025 Performance: A Record-Breaking Year with $1.5B in Revenue In 2025, Solana emerged as the top-performing blockchain network, generating a total revenue of $1.5 billion, surpassing the combined revenue of Hyperliquid and Ethereum. According to Nansen, its on-chain fee income alone reached $603 million, exceeding that of Tron and Ethereum and securing its position as the leader in public blockchain earnings. Key metrics underscored Solana's dominance: it recorded over 10.5 billion active addresses and approximately 23.01 billion transactions, both figures leading all major blockchains. Its on-chain spot trading volume hit $1.6 trillion, surpassing all centralized exchanges except Binance, indicating a significant shift of crypto activity to on-chain platforms. Solana's revenue structure is composed of four main components: base fees (burned for deflation), priority fees (paid to validators), MEV-related income, and minor sources like storage fees. This efficient model supports high transaction volumes while maintaining a median fee below $0.01. The report highlights that public chains, Perp DEXs (like Hyperliquid with $908M revenue), and launchpads (like Pump.fun with $549M revenue) remain the most profitable crypto sectors, second only to stablecoins. Solana's growth is attributed to its scalability, low costs, and vibrant ecosystem, including meme coin trends and DeFi innovations.

Odaily星球日报01/04 08:21

Solana 2025 Report Card: Annual Revenue of $1.5 Billion, Surpassing the Combined Total of 'Hyperliquid + Ethereum'

Odaily星球日报01/04 08:21

DTCC Is Not Tokenizing Stocks: What's Really Changing?

The article clarifies a key distinction in securities tokenization: DTCC's recent SEC approval tokenizes *security entitlements* within the existing indirect holding system, not the underlying shares themselves. This "digital twin" model modernizes the current infrastructure (e.g., enabling 24/7 settlement, reducing collateral needs) but preserves its core structure, including netting efficiency and intermediary layers. In contrast, a separate "direct ownership" model tokenizes the actual shares on a blockchain, enabling true self-custody, peer-to-peer transfers, and DeFi composability, but sacrifices the liquidity and efficiency of the centralized system. The author argues these are complementary, not competing, paths: DTCC's upgrade optimizes the existing market for institutions, while direct ownership enables new functionality for investors seeking autonomy. The real winner is investor choice, as both models will coexist, driving competition and innovation.

marsbit01/04 08:09

DTCC Is Not Tokenizing Stocks: What's Really Changing?

marsbit01/04 08:09

Matrixport Research: 2026 May Be the Year of High Volatility Pricing, Event Windows Determine Outcomes

Matrixport Research: 2026 is projected to be a year of high volatility pricing, driven by a convergence of macro and crypto-specific catalysts. Key factors include the U.S. Federal Reserve leadership transition, weakening employment trends, election-year policy uncertainty, and recurring government shutdown risks. These will amplify cross-asset volatility, particularly around monthly CPI and jobs data, FOMC meetings with updated economic projections (SEP), and fiscal deadlines. Concurrently, the crypto market will face its own high-impact events: the full implementation of the EU’s MiCA regulatory framework, major protocol upgrades (such as Ethereum’s “Glamsterdam”), the Mt. Gox repayment deadline (October 31, 2026), and the approaching Bitcoin halving (approx. 15 months later). These events may trigger significant short-term price movements. The market is expected to experience range-bound, event-driven dynamics rather than sustained directional trends. Success will depend on active risk and exposure management around critical event windows rather than passive positioning. Structural opportunities may emerge, especially late in the year, as multiple variables converge, creating potential repricing opportunities.

marsbit01/04 07:59

Matrixport Research: 2026 May Be the Year of High Volatility Pricing, Event Windows Determine Outcomes

marsbit01/04 07:59

When War Is Settled Before the News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' Maduro's Capture Six Days in Advance

"Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, demonstrated their ability to forecast major geopolitical events ahead of official announcements, as illustrated by the fictional yet plausible account of insider trading prior to the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Maduro in early January 2026. According to the article, several anonymous accounts on Polymarket placed large bets days before the actual event, with one address initiating trades as early as December 27, 2025—six days before the operation occurred. These insiders, likely individuals with access to classified U.S. government or military intelligence, collectively profited over $630,000. The piece highlights how Polymarket’s structure—anonymous, non-KYC, and crypto-settled—enables such trades with minimal risk of exposure. While prediction markets can serve as decentralized early-warning systems for the public, they also raise serious concerns about national security and insider trading. The incident may prompt stricter U.S. regulatory measures, such as the proposed 'Predictive Markets Integrity Act,' aimed at preventing officials from trading on non-public information. The tension between market transparency and state secrecy underscores a growing challenge: when prediction markets outpace official narratives, they risk disrupting traditional information control and operational security."

Odaily星球日报01/04 07:44

When War Is Settled Before the News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' Maduro's Capture Six Days in Advance

Odaily星球日报01/04 07:44

Decoding SUI’s price action – Why a $1.68 breakout could extend toward…

The price of SUI has surged nearly 19% in three days following news that Bitwise included it in a recent ETF filing. With Bitcoin challenging the $90k resistance and altcoins showing relative strength, SUI is showing bullish potential. A weekly close above $1.79 could signal further upside toward $2.95 and even $3.40. On the daily chart, a breakout above the $1.68 range high would confirm bullish momentum, supported by rising demand and positive market sentiment. Traders are advised to consider buying the breakout, targeting $3.40, though failure to break out may indicate a rejection. The rally is attributed to ETF news and Bitcoin's upward movement.

ambcrypto01/04 07:18

Decoding SUI’s price action – Why a $1.68 breakout could extend toward…

ambcrypto01/04 07:18

Analyzed all transaction data of x402 in December: Nearly 60% used for practical purposes rather than speculation

Analysis of all x402 transaction data from December reveals a new era of practical micro-payments powered by stablecoins. With 63 million transactions totaling $7.5M USDC, the ecosystem demonstrates AI agents can efficiently pay for services at scale. The average transaction was just $0.12—far below Visa's viable threshold—enabled by low-fee stablecoins. Over 1,100 projects participated, with 76% of services costing ≤$0.10. Key use cases are data services (31%), AI/LLMs (25%), and blockchain infrastructure (15%), indicating real utility over speculation. While 47% of transactions were for leaderboard farming, they represented only 14% of total value. Base (53%) and Solana (37%) lead as primary developer and production environments, respectively. Critical unsolved challenges include agent authentication (KYA), reputation systems, and dispute resolution. The protocol is proven; the infrastructure is growing. The question remains: what will you build?

marsbit01/04 07:05

Analyzed all transaction data of x402 in December: Nearly 60% used for practical purposes rather than speculation

marsbit01/04 07:05

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