2026-04-17 Sexta

Centro de Notícias - Página 261

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Bitcoin Funding Rate Hits Three-Month Low: What Did the Shorts Already Know?

Bitcoin's derivatives market signaled significant downside pressure ahead of key macro data, as funding rates turned deeply negative — hitting around -6% on February 28, a three-month low — while open interest (in BTC terms) continued to rise. This combination indicated that traders were aggressively shorting or hedging, using high leverage, even before the U.S. employment report was released. When the jobs data came in softer than expected, it triggered a macro repricing event. The negative funding rates reflected a crowded speculative position favoring shorts, meaning sellers were paying buyers to maintain their bearish bets. Such conditions can persist if hedging demand is genuine or if trend-following behavior continues, rather than simply indicating an imminent reversal. The real signal occurs when negative funding rates coincide with stable or rising open interest — suggesting new short positions are still entering — while price fails to make new lows. Liquidations then act as a scoreboard: cascading long or short squeezes confirm whether volatility has forced positions to unwind. In summary, derivatives metrics — funding rates, open interest, and liquidations — provided a clear, early warning of building risk and leveraged positioning prior to the macro catalyst. The market’s reaction was ultimately a function of crowded positions meeting a macroeconomic trigger.

marsbit03/09 08:23

Bitcoin Funding Rate Hits Three-Month Low: What Did the Shorts Already Know?

marsbit03/09 08:23

Got Ripped Off by Polymarket, This Time the Bug is a "Time Warp"

Title: Polymarket's "Time Warp" Bug During Daylight Saving Transition Causes User Losses On March 8, 2024, Polymarket, a prediction market platform, encountered a significant timing error due to the transition from Eastern Standard Time (EST) to Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) in the US. This annual clock adjustment, which skips the hour from 2:00 AM to 3:00 AM, disrupted the platform's automated event creation and settlement system. The issue affected Polymarket's "Crypto Up or Down" hourly prediction markets for assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. Events scheduled to run from 1:00 AM to 2:00 AM ET were impacted. Due to the time change, the platform's front-end and API incorrectly displayed the event duration as "March 8, 1-1 AM ET"—a logically impossible interval—instead of the correct "1:00 AM to 3:00 AM ET" (which still represents one actual hour). This bug caused substantial problems for automated trading systems that rely on precise timing data from the API. One user, "@richrichardoz," reported losses exceeding $100,000 because their trading bot malfunctioned upon receiving identical start and end times. The user and others have called for Polymarket to switch its time standard to UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) to avoid such issues and to compensate affected users. The incident highlights a critical design flaw in using local time (which is subject to bi-annual changes) instead of UTC, the global standard for financial systems. This ensures time remains consistent, monotonic, and unambiguous for automated processes. While the impact was limited, it underscores the need for prediction markets to adopt the rigorous engineering standards of traditional financial infrastructure as they scale. Polymarket had not issued an official response at the time of writing.

Odaily星球日报03/09 08:10

Got Ripped Off by Polymarket, This Time the Bug is a "Time Warp"

Odaily星球日报03/09 08:10

A $20 Billion Valuation: Kalshi and Polymarket in an Arms Race?

A potential "arms race" is brewing in the prediction market sector, with industry leaders Polymarket and Kalshi each reportedly in funding talks at valuations around $20 billion. This represents a near doubling of their respective $12 billion and $11 billion valuations from late 2025. As of February 2026, the global prediction market has reached a cumulative notional trading volume of $127.5 billion. Polymarket leads with $56.07 billion, followed closely by Kalshi at $44.71 billion, together commanding 79% market share. Their growth trajectories differ: Kalshi has experienced explosive user growth, with monthly active users surging from 600,000 to over 5.1 million in 2025, while Polymarket's user growth has been steadier, peaking around 700,000 monthly active users. Kalshi's trading volume skyrocketed over 1100% in 2025, largely driven by sports contracts which account for 81% of its volume. It has secured key partnerships with platforms like Robinhood, which contributed over 50% of its volume in late 2025, and media outlets like CNBC and CNN. Polymarket maintains a stronghold in political and crypto event markets. It has formed significant partnerships with X (formerly Twitter), ICE (for a strategic investment up to $2 billion), and the UFC for exclusive prediction market data. Both platforms are also official partners of the NHL, and their data is integrated into Google's search and finance products. Their divergent strategies—Kalshi's focus on USD-compliant trading and Polymarket's crypto-native, global event coverage—are collectively pushing prediction markets into the mainstream as vital information and risk-management platforms. With potential new funding and major upcoming events like the World Cup and the US elections, both platforms are poised for a record-breaking year in 2026.

marsbit03/09 07:06

A $20 Billion Valuation: Kalshi and Polymarket in an Arms Race?

marsbit03/09 07:06

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