2026-08-06 Quinta

Notícias de cripto - Página 260

Mantenha-se a par do mercado de cripto. Notícias em tempo real, análises, preços, histórias em alta e análise de especialistas — tudo num só lugar.

Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears End, Opportunities Emerge in HYPE Support Zone | Invited Analysis

**Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears End, HYPE Support Zone Presents Opportunity | Guest Analysis** This week, Bitcoin (BTC) is in the final stage of a five-wave corrective structure. The formation of 'Endpoint 44' is key: a level above $58,110 suggests a high probability of a technical rebound, leading likely to wide-range consolidation. A break below $58,110 without bullish divergence warrants caution for further downside. Mid-term bearish positions are maintained at 20%, with 30% of capital reserved for short-term scalping opportunities based on predefined support/resistance levels and three scenario-based plans (A/B/C). Simultaneously, HYPE has entered the 55-56 segment of its own five-wave correction from its $76.94 high. If 'Endpoint 56' forms above the prior low (Endpoint 54), creating a double-bottom pattern, a rebound is significantly likely. A light long position (under 30% allocation) can be considered upon stabilization in the support zone. Last week's BTC short-term strategy, guided by proprietary quantitative models, successfully executed two short trades (1x leverage), yielding a total return of approximately 6.21%. The market move validated the prior weekly forecast of a retest towards the $59,100 support. **Core Trading Views Summary:** * **BTC:** Focus on the formation of 'Endpoint 44'. A scenario above $58,110 allows for tentative longs. Key resistances: $60,900-$62,300, ~$65,500, $67,300-$69,500. Key supports: ~$58,100, ~$55,000. * **HYPE:** Monitor the final position of 'Endpoint 56'. Key resistances: ~$65.5, ~$71.5. Key supports: ~$58.5, $52-$54 zone. Strategy favors buying on dips upon stabilization in support areas with confirmed model signals, with strict position control. **Risk Disclaimer:** Financial markets are volatile. All analysis, models, and strategies herein are based on personal technical analysis for journaling purposes only, not investment advice. Trade at your own risk.

Odaily星球日报06/29 06:57

Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears End, Opportunities Emerge in HYPE Support Zone | Invited Analysis

Odaily星球日报06/29 06:57

AI Sweeps the Globe, So Why Is Crypto + AI Facing Gloom?

The article "AI Sweeps the Globe, But Why Is Crypto + AI So Bleak?" analyzes the disconnect between the booming AI industry and the struggling crypto+AI sector. It argues the issue is not flawed logic but severe demand-supply mismatch across four key sub-sectors. Decentralized compute and storage projects offer theoretical benefits like cost savings and data sovereignty but lack a decisive technical edge over entrenched cloud providers (AWS, GCP). Enterprises are unwilling to risk migration for unproven infrastructure that can't guarantee the performance and reliability needed for critical AI workloads. ZKML and privacy solutions address important issues like model verification but solve non-urgent, long-term concerns for most businesses currently focused on core performance and ROI. Demand here is likely to be regulation-driven (e.g., EU AI Act) rather than organic. AI agent infrastructure is developing foundational tech for a future multi-agent economy. However, the current market phase is dominated by internal process automation within single companies, making this technology premature. AI agent payments is highlighted as the only sub-sector where blockchain competes on a level playing field with traditional finance, as neither has adequately solved the challenges of machine-to-machine micropayments and real-time settlement. Overall, crypto+AI projects are building for future needs (data ownership, decentralization, transparency) that don't align with the industry's immediate priorities (performance, cost, stability). The absence of a flagship, large-scale use case further hinders mainstream adoption and capital inflow. The path forward requires either adapting to current market demands or patiently building the foundational infrastructure for the next phase of AI.

marsbit06/29 06:45

AI Sweeps the Globe, So Why Is Crypto + AI Facing Gloom?

marsbit06/29 06:45

"King of Pump Calls" Arthur Hayes Strikes Again, This Time Targeting Deribit

On June 29, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes purchased approximately 6.16 million SYN tokens via OTC platform Flowdesk for around $2.2 million. Hayes subsequently declared on X that SYN represents one of the most asymmetric investments he has seen since HYPE, stating it's time for an options DEX to challenge the dominant platform Deribit, and identifying Hypercall as that challenger. SYN's price surged over 40% following his comments, with a tenfold increase in June 2026 alone, bringing its FDV to roughly $110 million. The article details Synapse Protocol's evolution from a cross-chain messaging and liquidity network into the chain-based options trading protocol Hypercall. Hypercall, built on the Hyperliquid ecosystem's HyperEVM, aims to be a universal options exchange supporting any asset size with capped loss (limited to premium paid) and no forced liquidations. Deribit, established in 2016, remains the centralized leader in crypto options with an estimated 85% market share in BTC and ETH options and $3.588 billion in assets. Its strengths include deep liquidity and professional tools, but it faces criticisms over custody risk, KYC requirements, and regulatory uncertainty. The analysis positions Hypercall not as an immediate replacement for Deribit's entrenched network effects, but as a potential complementary and differentiated competitor, particularly for DeFi-native assets and new asset classes like RWA. The article concludes by noting Hayes's recent mixed "call" record, including fully exiting and later re-buying HYPE, and the controversial price target for CARDS from his family office Maelstrom, which was followed by a significant price drop.

marsbit06/29 06:25

"King of Pump Calls" Arthur Hayes Strikes Again, This Time Targeting Deribit

marsbit06/29 06:25

AI is Sweeping the Globe, So Why is Crypto + AI in a Slump?

AI Booms, But Crypto + AI Remains Sluggish: A Demand-Side Analysis Despite the AI industry's explosive growth and massive investment, the convergence of blockchain and AI (Crypto + AI) has seen limited traction. The core issue is a severe supply-demand mismatch, not a flawed premise. Analyzing four key sub-sectors reveals specific gaps: 1. **Decentralized Compute/Storage:** Offer logical benefits like data sovereignty and cost savings but lack a decisive technical advantage over entrenched cloud giants (AWS, GCP). Enterprises prioritize performance and stability and are unwilling to bear the switching risk and uncertainty of decentralized networks. 2. **Model Verification/Privacy (e.g., ZKML):** Address important long-term issues like auditability and data privacy, but these are not urgent operational pain points for most businesses today. Widespread demand will likely follow regulatory mandates (like the EU AI Act), not precede them. 3. **AI Agent Infrastructure:** Projects are building infrastructure for a future of autonomous, interacting agents. However, the current market focus is on internal process automation within corporate firewalls. The technology is ahead of market readiness. 4. **AI Agent Payments:** This is the only sub-sector where blockchain is on a level playing field with traditional finance. Both are trying to solve the unsolved problem of real-time, micro-transactions for machines, making it the most immediately competitive area. The overarching problem is that the AI industry invests heavily in solutions that solve immediate bottlenecks (e.g., faster memory, more power). Most Crypto + AI solutions target secondary, longer-term concerns (decentralization, transparency) and often come with performance trade-offs. The lack of a flagship, large-scale commercial success case further hinders mainstream capital inflow. The path forward requires either aligning more closely with the current industry's performance demands or patiently building the foundational infrastructure for the next phase of AI.

Foresight News06/29 06:15

AI is Sweeping the Globe, So Why is Crypto + AI in a Slump?

Foresight News06/29 06:15

Continuous Net Outflows from ETFs, Are Institutions Exiting?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced approximately $6 billion in net outflows over the past six weeks, marking the longest consecutive weekly withdrawal streak since their launch in 2024. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock has been particularly affected, accounting for over 70% of recent outflows. On-chain analysis indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders (holding for over 155 days), who control about 83% of the circulating supply, remain steadfast. The selling pressure is primarily coming from allocators who entered through ETF brokerage accounts. This represents the first major collective capitulation since Bitcoin gained mainstream Wall Street recognition, driven more by risk-off portfolio adjustments than a fundamental rejection of the asset. Factors such as rising inflation, a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, massive capital inflows into AI infrastructure, and attractive IPO opportunities have redirected speculative funds. Bitcoin, treated as a high-beta risk asset, was among the first to be sold. While the pace of outflows has slowed significantly—from $1.72 billion in early June to $226.8 million mid-month—the structural issue remains. IBIT's large size means its outflows alone exert substantial market pressure. With spot market volume thin, new capital inflows absent, and ETF buying muted, the market lacks sufficient buying support to absorb this selling. The coming sessions are critical. If IBIT outflows decelerate and Bitcoin reclaims $60,000, this phase could be seen as a healthy reset. However, if heavy IBIT redemptions resume and the price falls below $58,000, it would signal a more sustained institutional exit, requiring non-ETF buyers to shoulder the entire selling pressure alone. The ETF, while lowering entry barriers, has not removed Bitcoin's inherent volatility.

marsbit06/29 05:34

Continuous Net Outflows from ETFs, Are Institutions Exiting?

marsbit06/29 05:34

Introduction to the Concept of World Models: A Story from Psychology to the Main Battlefield of AI

**World Models: From Psychology to AI's Core Concept** "World model" is a trending but often confusing term in AI, describing a system that allows machines to internally simulate, predict, and rehearse potential outcomes before taking real-world action—like a mental "sandbox." While definitions vary—Yann LeCun emphasizes physical understanding, OpenAI's Sora is a video-based "world simulator," Google DeepMind's Genie 3 creates interactive 3D environments, and companies like Alibaba and Tesla focus on practical applications—the core goal is consistent: reduce reliance on vast real-world data by creating an internal, predictive model for safer and more efficient AI. The concept has deep roots, tracing back to psychologist Kenneth Craik (1943). In AI, it was revitalized by researchers like David Ha and Jürgen Schmidhuber (2018). Major technical approaches include: 1) generative video models (e.g., Sora) for visual realism; 2) abstract predictive models (e.g., LeCun's JEPA) for efficiency and physical reasoning; and 3) explicit 3D simulators (e.g., NVIDIA Omniverse) for precision. Fei-Fei Li proposes a classification based on the AI action loop: renderers (output observations), simulators (output world states), and planners (output actions). The emerging "World Action Model" (WAM) paradigm aims to unify future prediction and action generation. An industry framework is forming: upstream (data, compute, sensors), midstream (general and vertical platforms), and downstream applications (autonomous driving, robotics, gaming, etc.). Autonomous driving is currently the most mature use case. The current lack of a unified definition reflects the field's early, dynamic stage, similar to past tech revolutions. Different approaches—focusing on pixels, physics, or behavior—represent parallel explorations of how best to compress and understand the world. This diversity, while seemingly chaotic, signals that world models have moved from an academic idea to a critical industrial battleground, ultimately aiming to give machines the ability to understand, imagine, and reason about the world.

marsbit06/29 05:09

Introduction to the Concept of World Models: A Story from Psychology to the Main Battlefield of AI

marsbit06/29 05:09

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

The title "Building the Plank Road Openly While Secretly Crossing at Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September 'Rate Cut'?" suggests Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's hawkish stance may be a deliberate smokescreen. Academy Securities analyst Peter Tchir argues in a report that markets, currently pricing a 75% chance of a September hike, are missing a potential path to a September rate cut that Walsh himself might be quietly preparing. Tchir posits that Walsh's hawkish rhetoric aims to suppress long-term yield risks (with the 10-year Treasury yield falling recently) while creating room for a narrative shift based on upcoming data. The potential political endgame, according to this view, could be rate cuts in September and October, ahead of the midterm elections. This hinges on a political logic where the Trump administration's preference for lower rates remains unchanged. A core part of Tchir's argument involves redefining inflation metrics. He contends the Fed under Walsh may deprioritize the PCE index, criticizing its lagging components like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER). Instead, he points to alternative, more real-time indicators like the New Tenant Repeat Rent Index (NTRR) and the Truflation daily index, which shows core inflation around 1.45%. He suggests the Fed could shift its data narrative to justify policy easing. Furthermore, Tchir downplays AI-driven inflation fears. He argues that consumer price sensitivity, evidenced by negative market reactions to price hikes (e.g., Apple), contradicts persistent inflation narratives. He also separates AI/data center spending—which he sees as relatively rate-insensitive—from broader consumer affordability issues, implying rate hikes are misdirected. Based on this analysis, Tchir sees a re-pricing of rate cut expectations as likely, creating opportunities in short-duration Treasuries. He maintains a neutral-to-slightly-bullish view on the long end of the yield curve. For equities, he recommends a significant overweight in energy (especially global nuclear assets) and, within defense/security themes, an overweight in biotech/pharma versus an underweight in semiconductors, expressing caution on AI/data center valuations.

marsbit06/29 04:42

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

marsbit06/29 04:42

IBIT Records $1.3 Billion Outflow in a Single Week, Bitcoin's Largest ETF Becomes a Wall of Selling Pressure That Bulls Must Break Through

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest U.S. spot bitcoin ETF, saw $1.3 billion in net outflows for the week ending June 26, accounting for roughly 73% of total ETF outflows ($1.79B). This significant, concentrated selling pressure from the primary vehicle that previously funneled institutional demand into bitcoin is now testing the market at a key support level near $60,000. The article notes a narrative shift: the same ETF that served as a major entry ramp for compliant investment is now operating in reverse as a potential exit lane. While ETF outflows represent a transmission risk rather than direct spot selling, they create a new structural headwind. Bitcoin's next move hinges on whether non-ETF buyers can absorb this pressure. Two scenarios are presented: if IBIT outflows slow and bitcoin reclaims the $59,000-$62,000 range, the event could be seen as a clearing of weak hands. However, if IBIT continues to lead significant redemptions while bitcoin struggles to hold $60k, the ETF complex itself may become a persistent source of selling pressure, challenging the long-held "institutional demand" thesis. The coming trading sessions will determine if this is a one-time purge or the start of sustained outflows.

marsbit06/29 04:04

IBIT Records $1.3 Billion Outflow in a Single Week, Bitcoin's Largest ETF Becomes a Wall of Selling Pressure That Bulls Must Break Through

marsbit06/29 04:04

Pump.fun surges 12% as holder count hits record high – 2 metrics could cap gains

The token of memecoin launch platform Pump.fun (PUMP) surged 12% as sentiment improved alongside renewed interest in memecoins. On-chain data showed strong investor participation, with the holder count reaching a record high of 122,440. Total Value Locked (TVL) also saw a significant increase of roughly $15.7 million, rising to $217.7 million and indicating fresh capital inflows. However, key protocol performance metrics contrasted with this positive price action and investor growth. Data revealed substantial declines in launchpad volume (down 86.7% to $5.8M), generated fees (down 35.6% to $587,200), and protocol revenue (down 23% to $147.8M). These drops suggest underlying user activity and platform utility remain weak. While the recent surge is supported by growing holder numbers and TVL, the sustainability of the rally is uncertain. For gains to be firmly supported, a recovery in fundamental protocol usage metrics is likely needed.

ambcrypto06/29 04:02

Pump.fun surges 12% as holder count hits record high – 2 metrics could cap gains

ambcrypto06/29 04:02

"King of Shilling" Hayes Strikes Again, This Time Setting His Sights on Deribit

On June 29, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes acquired approximately 6.16 million SYN tokens via OTC platform Flowdesk, valued at around $2.2 million. Subsequently, Hayes publicly endorsed SYN on X, calling it one of the most asymmetric investments he's seen since HYPE and declaring it time for an on-chain options DEX to challenge industry leader Deribit, naming Hypercall as that challenger. The article details the evolution of the Synapse Protocol, originally launched in 2021 as a cross-chain messaging and liquidity network. While its TVL peaked above $1 billion during the last bull market, it has since declined. The protocol's team has since built Hypercall, an on-chain options trading platform on Hyperliquid's HyperEVM, which supports trading options on "any asset" with features like 24/7 trading and defined risk limited to the premium paid. Deribit, founded in 2016, is highlighted as the dominant centralized crypto options exchange, commanding roughly 85% market share in BTC and ETH options. Its strengths include deep liquidity and professional tools, though it faces critiques over custody risk, KYC requirements, and regulatory uncertainty. The analysis suggests Hypercall's potential lies in decentralization, permissionless access, and transparency, potentially carving a niche in DeFi-native and emerging asset options. However, it faces significant challenges competing with Deribit's established network effect and liquidity depth. The piece concludes by noting Hayes's recent and mixed "call" history, referencing his previous promotion and subsequent sale of HYPE, as well as a controversial price target report for CARDS from his family office, Maelstrom, which was followed by a significant price drop for the asset. This activity has drawn criticism, with some accusing Hayes of creating exit liquidity for his followers.

Foresight News06/29 03:53

"King of Shilling" Hayes Strikes Again, This Time Setting His Sights on Deribit

Foresight News06/29 03:53

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