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Bitcoin network activity reached record highs in 2026, which historically has signaled price trend reversals, wrote K33 analysts. The experts note that the spike in coin movement over the seven days to August 3 resembles a pattern observed around local market peaks and troughs in past cycles.
During the reporting period, approximately 890,000 bitcoins or $57 billion (at the rate on August 5) were moved, while the price of the leading cryptocurrency remains in a narrow price range. Furthermore, the 30-day price volatility continues to be at its lowest levels since 2023.
Since February, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been predominantly in the $60,000–$70,000 range, with an attempt to consolidate above $80,000 in May. Since June, the cryptocurrency's price has been in an even narrower range of $60,000–$65,000. As of August 3, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $64,000.
K33 asserts that the spike in transactional activity was most likely caused by attacks on the Coldcard cryptocurrency wallet. As well as heightened concerns regarding other hardware wallets, including Ledger and Trezor, which prompted some owners to consider switching to centralized services for storage. However, this is precisely what happens on the Bitcoin network, according to analysts, during moments of market panic, followed by a reversal in the asset's price.
Coldcard, like Ledger and Trezor, are hardware wallets, meaning physical devices that store cryptocurrency assets offline. In late July, hackers found a vulnerability in the firmware of some device models, allowing them to crack access keys to the bitcoins stored in Coldcard.
Over a few days, the attackers stole over $100 million worth of Bitcoin from thousands of separate addresses. The overall situation led to mass transfers of Bitcoin to new addresses, including exchange addresses. Experts compared the scale of activity to the collapse of one of the largest crypto exchanges in 2022—FTX.
For clarity, K33 analysts use a chart showing spikes in Bitcoin network activity in 2026. It shows that the seven-day average of activity in terms of the sum of moved bitcoins coincided with local price lows and highs.
The experts added that such periods of panic often prompt holders to move coins to exchanges to avoid further losses or to lock in profits. K33 noted that the two biggest activity spikes this year coincided with sell-offs in February and June.
K33 highlighted periods where similar spikes coincided with local peaks and troughs during the 2022 bear market, the 2024 and 2025 bull markets, and the current 2026 bear market.
However, the situation in early August may differ from previous cycles in the nature of network activity. In past periods, an increase in transfers was accompanied by trading activity, whereas this time—by users' desire to move their funds to more secure storage places.
Will There Be a Reversal
Moreover, besides network activity on the Bitcoin blockchain, there are other factors that could influence the price of the leading cryptocurrency. By early August, apart from the hack and blockchain activity, most experts were predicting continued weakness in the crypto market against the backdrop of the macroeconomic situation. It was noted that August would not be a reversal period, but a month of "range testing."
The main restraining factors cited were high credit rates in the US, inflation, and the oil price, which also remain high: it was stated that, collectively, these factors exert the most pressure on the leading cryptocurrency's price.
In the context of crypto market weakness, historical data was also noted, according to which the average return in August for 2013–2025 was 1.12%, but the median was minus 7.49%. This indicates a predominance of negative periods.
Even earlier, many key players in the crypto market gave similar forecasts. Using historical or technical benchmarks, numerous experts pointed to this autumn as the point for a reversal from the bearish trend to growth.
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