Written by: Cointelegraph
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Both backtest data and forward-looking models indicate that using a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy to buy Bitcoin is the best way to invest in BTC. Will this method still work in the next bull market?
Bitcoin has experienced a 50% crash over the past 5 months, and savvy investors adjust their strategies during such bear markets and correction periods. This strategy is called dollar-cost averaging (DCA), which involves investing a fixed amount regularly, regardless of market conditions.
By examining historical market cycle data and forward-looking BTC price simulations, we can more clearly see how this steady investment approach performs across different entry times and investment horizons.
Five Years of DCA in Bitcoin Yields Substantial Net Gains
Starting from January 2021, investing $250 weekly in Bitcoin via DCA, the total investment over five years would be $67,500. According to DCA simulation data, this strategy would have accumulated 1.65097905 BTC, with an average purchase price of $40,884.
At Bitcoin's current price of nearly $71,000, this 1.65097905 BTC is worth approximately $120,500, resulting in a profit of $53,000 (a 76% increase). If Bitcoin rises to $100,000, the holdings would be worth about $165,000; and at the cycle peak of around $126,000 in October 2025, the holdings would reach a value of $208,000.
2021-2026 Bitcoin DCA Cycle Source: Newhedge
Now, consider a shorter investment period to see the impact of entry timing on early returns. Starting from January 2024, investing $250 weekly, the total investment would be $28,500, accumulating 0.36863166 BTC with an average purchase price of $77,312.
At the current price of $71,000, these bitcoins are worth approximately $26,909, representing a 6% paper loss. If the price reaches $100,000, the holdings would be worth $36,863; and at the cycle peak of $126,000, the holdings would be valued at $46,448.
In February of this year, Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston compared on platform X the returns of DCA into BTC versus the S&P 500 over the past five years. Investing $100 weekly, BTC yielded $42,508, while the S&P 500 yielded $37,470, with returns of 62.9% and 43.6% respectively.
Livingston noted that although Bitcoin is highly volatile, historical data shows that persisting with DCA during downturns leads to higher long-term gains.
Weekly $100 DCA: BTC vs. S&P 500 Source: Adam Livingston/X
Long-Term Model: Time is the Key Factor
Forward-looking simulation studies have also tested the effectiveness of DCA starting in 2026. From January 2026, investing $250 weekly until March 2030, the total investment would be approximately $54,250.
The price prediction is based on Bitcoin's long-term power law growth curve (which tracks the relationship between Bitcoin's historical price and time on a logarithmic scale). This model generates a rising support band and a median trendline, which aligns well with previous market cycles.
Bitcoin Power Law Growth Curve Source: Bitbo.io
Based on this model, analysts estimate that the long-term trend support level could break through $100,000 by 2028, which also serves as the foundational assumption for future DCA modeling. Bitcoin Well's simulation shows that by March 2030, the median price projection is approximately $430,000.
Considering potential price deviations, the model also accounts for the upper and lower bounds of the power law channel, providing a lower estimate (around $274,000) and a higher estimate (around $900,000).
Based on these assumptions, four years of DCA would accumulate roughly 0.30 BTC:
- If BTC price is $274,000, the holdings are worth approximately $82,200.
- If BTC price is $430,000 (median projection), the holdings are worth approximately $129,000.
- If BTC price is $900,000, the holdings are worth approximately $270,000.
DCA Investment Results as of March 2030 Source: Bitcoin Well
In November 2025, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With conducted a study using a similar predictive model to test the impact of entry time on long-term returns. The results found that even buying at a price 20% higher than the then price of $94,000 and selling at a price 20% lower than the projected 2035 median price, the remaining holdings after ten years would still yield a profit of nearly 300%.
In this simulation, the final total assets were 7.7 times the initial investment.
The study concluded: Entry timing affects the level of returns, but long-term holding is the key determinant of the magnitude of gains.
