Author: Omnitools
On June 12, SpaceX issued 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, raising $75 billion. This shattered the previous IPO record of $29.4 billion set by Saudi Aramco in 2019 by two and a half times, locking in the company's total valuation at $1.77 trillion.
One figure immediately stood out: founder Elon Musk's net worth broke through $1 trillion. The first trillionaire in human history had emerged.
However, the S-1 filing also exposed another set of numbers: the company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, with cumulative losses exceeding $37 billion; the xAI division, while losing $6.4 billion, was pulling in $26 billion annually in compute leasing fees from Anthropic and Google. Only 4.2% of the shares were actually trading in the secondary market. How much upward price movement can each dollar of net buying drive? When will those holding locked-up shares—including 4,400 employees poised to become millionaires—lose their patience?
This is a math problem.
How the Trillion-Dollar Fortune Was "Calculated"
The core driver behind Musk becoming the first trillionaire is SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation. But the specific composition of the "trillion" figure hinges on a question the S-1 does not directly answer: what is his exact economic interest?
Citing the S-1 filing, TechCrunch reported that Musk holds approximately 85.1% of the voting power and will retain over 50% post-IPO. Voting power does not equal economic interest. Musk likely controls the company through super-voting Class B or C shares, which typically carry 10 or even 20 times the voting rights of common stock, while his actual economic stake may be far lower than 85.1%.
Since Musk's precise economic interest percentage is not disclosed in public reports based on the S-1, we can only model different scenarios. Assuming his economic stake falls between 35% and 55%, the value of his SpaceX equity based on the $1.77 trillion valuation is as follows:
At 35% economic interest, SpaceX equity value is approximately $619.5 billion. Adding his roughly 13% stake in Tesla (worth hundreds of billions at Tesla's current market cap) and other private assets (xAI, Neuralink, The Boring Company), his total net worth easily crosses the $1 trillion threshold.
At 45% economic interest, SpaceX equity value is about $796.5 billion, placing total net worth in the $1.2 to $1.3 trillion range.
At 55% economic interest, SpaceX equity value is roughly $973.5 billion, pushing total net worth close to $1.5 trillion.
In all three scenarios, the $1 trillion barrier is breached. Musk's status as the "first trillionaire" is established on paper.
But a paper trillion is not the same as a spendable trillion. The 85.1% voting power likely means Musk holds super-voting shares, which are extremely illiquid. Three factors combine to lock up his ability to cash out: lock-up provisions prohibit immediate sale post-IPO; large-scale sales would directly threaten his absolute control; and if the founder dumps shares en masse, the resulting collapse in market confidence could crater the stock price far more than the sale percentage itself.
Consider a comparison. Jeff Bezos cashed out about $8.5 billion in 2025 through gradual sales of Amazon stock, controlling his selling pace to no more than 2% to 3% of his holdings annually. If Musk sold SpaceX shares at the same pace, under the 45% economic interest scenario, his maximum annual cash-out would be approximately $16 to $24 billion. While a massive number, it represents only 1.6% to 2.4% of his trillion-dollar fortune. Of Musk's trillion-dollar wealth, perhaps less than 2% can actually turn into cash each year.
This is the core paradox of the "trillionaire" title: the number is real, but the liquidity is an illusion.
4,400 Millionaires, and a Conditional Equity Plan
Citing the S-1, TechCrunch reported that about 4,400 employees are poised to become millionaires through the equity plan. Using the lowest estimate of $1 million per person, the total employee equity value is at least $4.4 billion. If using a likely median range implied by the S-1 ($1.5 million to $3 million), the total value could be between $6.6 billion and $13.2 billion.
The scale of 4,400 sets a record for wealth creation from a tech company IPO. Facebook's 2012 IPO created about 1,000 millionaires; Snowflake's 2020 IPO involved about 3,000 employees at a $70 billion valuation. SpaceX's wealth distribution is broader, tied to its structure: software companies often support similar valuations with hundreds of employees, while SpaceX requires multiples more manpower for hardware manufacturing, launch operations, and satellite internet services. Per-capita wealth may be lower than in pure software firms, but coverage aligns more with manufacturing's wealth distribution logic.
But "millionaire" does not equal "$1 million in cash." Employee equity is typically granted as restricted stock units or stock options, requiring passage through three hurdles from paper wealth to bank account.
First is the lock-up period. The standard US IPO practice locks up employee shares for 180 days, prohibiting sales. After Facebook's 2012 IPO, some early employees couldn't sell when the stock briefly dipped below the IPO price due to the lock-up. Second is the strike price. If equity is in option form, employees must pay out of pocket to purchase shares at the strike price; the difference between strike price and offering price is the actual gain. Third are tax obligations. Exercising options triggers a taxable event; combined federal, state, and even Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) can leave net proceeds far below the paper amount.
After Snowflake's 2020 IPO, its stock doubled on the first day, but employees could only start selling in batches after 180 days, during which the price fluctuated over 30%. SpaceX's 4,400 millionaires face the same temporal mismatch: the IPO pricing day marks the peak of paper wealth, but real cash must wait until the lock-up ends, by which time the stock price will depend on market dynamics over the next six months.
Specifics of the employee equity forms, strike price levels, and lock-up details are not fully disclosed in public reports based on the S-1. The earliest cash-out window and actual post-tax proceeds for the 4,400 remain a pending calculation.
Total Shares Outstanding: 13.11 Billion, Only 4.2% Trades in Secondary Market
SpaceX's share structure is key to understanding its potential stock price volatility.
The IPO issued 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion, for a company valuation of $1.77 trillion. Back-calculating from the valuation, total shares outstanding are approximately 13.11 billion ($1.77 trillion divided by $135). The 555.6 million newly issued shares represent about 4.2% of the 13.11 billion total shares outstanding.
What does a 4.2% float mean? Ultimately, any stock price is determined by buy and sell orders in the secondary market. When the available trading pool is only 4.2% of total shares, even modest net buying can drive significant price increases. Conversely, when the lock-up ends and the remaining 96% of shares gradually become eligible for sale, selling pressure will be similarly amplified.
Consider a magnitude comparison. Apple's average daily trading volume is about $12 billion, representing roughly 0.36% turnover of its ~$3.3 trillion market cap. If SpaceX, with its $75 billion float, experienced the same 0.36% daily turnover rate, its daily trading volume would be about $2.7 billion. At this 0.36% daily turnover level, a single day's net buying pressure of $2.7 billion could theoretically move the price, but in practice, the involvement of market makers, high-frequency traders, and arbitrage funds complicates this relationship.
One cannot directly assert "$7.5 billion in net buying will make the price rise 10%." But it can be confirmed: SpaceX's share structure gives its stock price inherent high elasticity, while simultaneously exposing its vulnerability to massive selling pressure post-lockup.
Here's an illustration of float market cap increase under different price rise scenarios. If the stock rises 10% to $148.5, the float market cap increases from $75 billion to $82.5 billion, a $7.5 billion increase. A 20% rise to $162 grows the float cap to $90 billion, a $15 billion increase. A 30% rise to $175.5 pushes the float cap to $97.5 billion, a $22.5 billion increase.
These increment figures are just changes in float market cap, not the required net buying capital. Actual stock prices are determined by order matching between buyers and sellers; market makers' inventory adjustments, high-frequency trading arbitrage strategies, and institutional investors' order-splitting tactics all affect capital efficiency. But the 4.2% float provides a clear sense of magnitude: SpaceX's stock price sensitivity to capital flow is far higher than that of ordinary large-cap stocks.
The real test comes after the lock-up period ends. When 96% of the 13.11 billion shares gradually become unlocked—including employee equity plans, early investors, and Musk's own large holdings—can the secondary market's pool absorb such a deluge? The S-1 warns investors of potential further equity dilution post-listing, a risk that will be concentrated upon lock-up expiration.
If Anthropic and OpenAI IPO, How Many Millionaires Could They Create?
SpaceX's 4,400 millionaires provide a benchmark. For a horizontal comparison, if Anthropic and OpenAI IPO at their current private valuations, what would the magnitude of total employee equity value be?
Reports from CNBC and Morningstar confirm Anthropic completed a Series H funding round at a $96.5 billion valuation, with ARR reaching $30 billion. Forbes and Sacra reports show OpenAI is valued at $85.2 billion, with annualized revenue around $25 billion. Both companies are private; their employee option pool percentages and exact headcounts are not public.
Setting a core assumption: If the companies IPO at current private valuations, assume employee option pools constitute 10% to 15% of total shares outstanding (a Silicon Valley unicorn IPO norm). Under this assumption:
For Anthropic, at a 10% option pool, total employee equity value is ~$9.65 billion; at 15%, ~$14.48 billion.
For OpenAI, at a 10% option pool, total employee equity value is ~$8.52 billion; at 15%, ~$12.78 billion.
Even under the most conservative 10% assumption, Anthropic's and OpenAI's total employee equity values are 22x and 19x SpaceX's known minimum ($4.4 billion), respectively. This gap stems from a structural reason: within SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation, Musk's personal share is extremely high (85.1% voting power implies a dominant personal slice even with a lower economic interest), naturally limiting the portion of the pie for employees. As AI-native companies, Anthropic and OpenAI have smaller workforces (OpenAI ~1,200, Anthropic ~1,500-2,000, based on public estimates) and higher equity dispersion.
But this is a paper comparison. Anthropic's $96.5 billion valuation against ~$30 billion ARR implies a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of about 32x; OpenAI's $85.2 billion against $25 billion implies a P/S of about 34x. These multiples far exceed SpaceX's ~9.8x (1.77 trillion / 180 billion revenue).
Whether the public market is willing to pay similar, or even higher, P/S multiples for AI companies remains unproven. CoreWeave's IPO served as a caution: when it went public in 2025, its valuation was compressed to the $23-30 billion range, far below some investor expectations. The reason was public scrutiny of the contradiction between high capital expenditure and low profitability in AI compute leasing.
And the xAI financial data exposed in SpaceX's S-1 shows the same contradiction exists within SpaceX's AI compute business. As previously reported by OmniTools, xAI generated $3.2 billion revenue in 2025 with a $6.4 billion loss, implying annualized capex of ~$30.8 billion. This data means the $26 billion annualized compute leasing revenue SpaceX collects from Anthropic and Google comes from a business unit that is still hemorrhaging money, with capex far exceeding revenue.
If Anthropic and OpenAI stand at the IPO threshold, employees will see large numbers when multiplying valuation by their share percentages. But whether this translates to cash in the public market depends on whether post-listing P/S multiples can hold. The story of SpaceX's 4.2% float will replay with these AI companies, only the protagonist will have switched from rockets to large language models.
The Other Side of Compute Revenue
The long-term support for SpaceX's stock price ultimately comes down to one question: can AI compute leasing revenue cover xAI's losses and capital expenditures?
The S-1 discloses that xAI has locked in compute leasing contracts with Anthropic for $1.25 billion per month and Google for $920 million per month, implying annualized revenue of ~$26.04 billion. The xAI division itself reported $3.2 billion revenue and a $6.4 billion loss in 2025. Viewed alone, $26 billion annualized revenue more than covers the $6.4 billion loss; the operational loss is not the primary issue.
The problem is capex. The implied annualized capex of ~$30.8 billion, as estimated by OmniTools, far exceeds the $26 billion annualized revenue, leaving a ~$4.8 billion shortfall requiring external financing or subsidies from the SpaceX parent. More critically, the $26 billion figure is a static calculation based on "$1.25B + $0.92B per month," while contract terms, renewal clauses, and early termination conditions with Anthropic and Google are not public in the S-1.
SpaceX lists water resources alongside chips and electricity as a core risk in the S-1. $30.8 billion in capex means xAI must continuously purchase GPUs, build data centers, and consume electricity and water. If the compute contracts with Anthropic and Google have short cycles or are terminable early, the $26 billion annualized revenue is not a guaranteed figure.
For public market investors, this is a knot that must be untied. The narrative driving SpaceX's stock price relies on the high growth of AI compute leasing, but the capex scale supporting this growth implies ongoing cash burn. When 96% of locked shares become eligible for sale, if xAI remains in a financial state of "$26B annual revenue, $6.4B annual loss, $30.8B annual spend," will institutional investors continue to buy into this cycle?
SpaceX's IPO is a math problem. The answer isn't on pricing day, but in the first quarter after the lock-up expires.
