# Rate Cuts的所有文章

"New Fed News Agency": Regardless of Whether a Ceasefire Agreement is Reached, the Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts Remains Bleak

Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Whisperer," argues that a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran would not brighten the Federal Reserve’s dimming prospects for interest rate cuts. Instead, it would replace one economic challenge with another: an energy shock that could prolong inflationary pressures without severely damaging demand, thereby keeping rates higher for longer. The Fed’s March meeting minutes revealed that officials were already cautious about cutting rates even before the conflict, as progress on inflation had stalled while the labor market remained stable. While a ceasefire might reduce the risk of a worst-case recession scenario, it could also leave underlying inflation pressures intact. Energy and commodity prices that rose during the conflict may not fully retreat, and financial conditions could loosen amid post-ceasefire optimism. The Fed is weighing dual risks: a sudden labor market downturn that would warrant rate cuts, and persistent above-target inflation that might require hikes. Although most officials still expect at least one cut this year, some have grown more hesitant. Even if the conflict ends quickly, supply chain "echo effects" and geopolitical vulnerabilities may keep inflation elevated, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance.

marsbit04/09 02:27

2008-style crisis ahead? – How crypto investors are reacting to ‘zero rate cuts’

With expectations of zero rate cuts and persistent inflation risks, crypto market dynamics are shifting toward capital preservation. While the total crypto market cap remains stable near $2.4 trillion, defensive positioning is evident as stablecoin supply hits a new all-time high of $316 billion. USDT outflows and declining exchange reserves indicate investors are moving liquidity into on-chain stablecoins, preparing to redeploy when risk appetite improves. Analysts warn that sustained high yields and borrowing costs could heighten systemic risks, echoing pre-crisis conditions. This cautious stance suggests stablecoins are becoming a key hedging tool amid deteriorating macro conditions.

ambcrypto03/21 11:07

After 6 Quarters of Calling for Rate Cuts, Rate Expectations Are Instead Moving Upwards

In September 2024, the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle, projecting a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025—implying four additional cuts. However, six quarters later, the March SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) reveals a significant shift: the rate now stands at 3.50%-3.75%, 25 basis points higher than initially expected. The median projection for 2026 has also risen from 2.9% to 3.4%. The Fed’s internal consensus has fractured. Out of 19 FOMC participants, seven now expect no rate cuts in 2026, while seven anticipate only one cut. This 7:7 split reflects a fundamental disagreement over the direction of monetary policy, moving from debates over the magnitude of cuts to whether cuts should occur at all. Persistent inflation is the core issue. The Fed has consistently revised its PCE inflation forecasts upward over the past six quarters, with the 2026 projection now at 2.7%—up 0.6 percentage points from initial estimates. Core PCE, a key indicator of underlying inflation, was revised up sharply to 2.7%, signaling entrenched price pressures. Despite slightly raising its GDP growth forecast to 2.4% and holding unemployment steady at 4.4%, the Fed’s unchanged median rate projection conflicts with its own rising inflation outlook. Market expectations remain more dovish, pricing in around 50 basis points of cuts, but the Fed’s internal division and consistent underestimation of inflation suggest continued uncertainty. The central bank is effectively chasing reality, with no clear consensus on the path ahead.

marsbit03/19 02:30

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has Forecasted More Rate Cuts

TheNewsCrypto02/27 12:46

Rate Cuts Watch: FOMC Minutes, PCE Inflation and Jobs Data To Move Crypto

This week's crypto market focus is on key U.S. economic data that could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, due Wednesday, may reveal the Fed's internal debate on inflation and growth, potentially shifting rate-cut expectations without a policy change. Thursday's jobless claims will test whether the labor market is cooling, a crucial factor for the Fed's timing. Friday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—and the Q4 GDP report, which will provide insights into economic resilience. Markets have recently increased odds of a June rate cut, making any surprises in these releases highly impactful. Crypto, particularly Bitcoin, is sensitive to changes in rate expectations, as they affect Treasury yields, the dollar, and overall risk appetite.

ccn.com02/16 10:13

CEA Chair Stephen Miran Resigns, Expresses Support for Rate Cuts as Crypto Prices Plunge

Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), has resigned from his White House position. His departure, described as non-political, follows his earlier commitment to a short tenure. Miran expressed support for interest rate cuts in 2026, aligning with President Trump's stance, citing current monetary policy as "too tight" despite inflation being above the 2% target. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency prices have significantly declined, with the total market cap dropping nearly 2% to $2.59 trillion. Bitcoin fell 2.79%, and other major tokens like ETH and BNB also saw losses. This downturn coincides with market uncertainty from conflicting signals on future rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve appears less inclined to reduce rates. Billionaire investor Ken Griffin attributed the US dollar's recent loss in value to volatile fiscal policy and rate cut expectations. He welcomed the appointment of the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, who supports rate cuts, which could potentially boost investor appetite for risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

TheNewsCrypto02/04 07:05

Interest Rate Cuts? Trump's 'Perfect Candidate' Might Be Even Tougher to Handle Than Powell!

President Trump has nominated Kevin M. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor with strong Wall Street ties, to be the next Fed chair, praising him as potentially "one of the greatest" in history. However, Trump’s strong desire for significant interest rate cuts—potentially to around 1%—faces major obstacles. The current rate stands at 3.5%-3.75%, and the economy shows steady growth with no clear need for aggressive cuts. Warsh, often labeled an inflation hawk, has shown flexibility in the past and recently argued there is room for rate reductions if productivity gains from AI offset inflation risks. Still, he would need to persuade a skeptical Federal Open Market Committee, where several regional bank presidents are hesitant about further cuts. Colleagues and observers describe Warsh as a pragmatic operator who understands markets and values Fed independence. He is expected to base decisions on economic data rather than political pressure, despite Trump’s expectations. If confirmed, Warsh would face intense scrutiny over every policy move amid concerns about the Fed’s independence.

比推01/30 22:21

DXY posts worst run in 8 years – So why isn’t Bitcoin rocketing?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) posted its worst performance in eight years, declining 9.4% in 2025 and continuing to weaken in 2026. Historically, such dollar weakness has been a strong catalyst for Bitcoin rallies, as seen in 2017 and 2020. However, despite this favorable backdrop, Bitcoin has not surged as expected. While former President Trump supports a weaker dollar to boost exports and economic growth, and continues pushing for rate cuts, the Fed has maintained rates, emphasizing data-driven policy. Additionally, Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have been offloading BTC at the fastest pace in four months, indicating skepticism toward the DXY-Bitcoin correlation. Rising inflation risks may further undermine the rate-cut narrative, leading investors to seek safer assets instead of Bitcoin.

ambcrypto01/29 11:01

Gold tops $4.6K as crypto enters macro week: Coincidence or early warning?

The crypto market enters a critical macro week dominated by debates over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, with significant implications for digital assets. While some institutions like BlackRock project rate cuts as a bullish catalyst, others like JPMorgan hold a hawkish view. Against this backdrop, traditional safe-haven assets like Gold and Silver are hitting all-time highs, with Gold surpassing $4,630. This surge coincides with growing macroeconomic uncertainty, causing the Bitcoin/Gold ratio to drop to 20 from 35 earlier in the year, indicating underperformance in BTC. With rate cut odds falling to just 5%, mounting economic stress threatens to tighten liquidity for crypto assets. Gold’s breakout may serve as an early warning sign for risk assets like cryptocurrency as volatility increases.

ambcrypto01/13 19:02

Gold Rushes Ahead of Quantitative Easing, Bitcoin Awaits Liquidity (Part 2)

The article analyzes why Bitcoin has remained stagnant around $80,000 despite the U.S. entering a rate-cut cycle, while gold continues to rise. It attributes this divergence to two structural factors: high real interest rates due to persistent inflation and a "middle-layer blockage" where monetary easing isn't translating into looser financial conditions. Additionally, this is a defensive rate-cut cycle driven by recession risks and rising debt burdens, not growth, causing capital to prioritize safety over risk-taking assets like Bitcoin. The U.S. faces a debt trilemma: rolling over debt, shifting to short-term issuance, or allowing currency devaluation. Gold's surge reflects hedging against dollar devaluation. Bitcoin awaits confirmed liquidity expansion. The outlook involves two phases: an initial recession shock where gold may peak while Bitcoin faces a sell-off, followed by Fed-led liquidity expansion (QE) where Bitcoin absorbs excess liquidity and surges. Silver's role is noted, with its price action tied to industrial demand and the gold-silver ratio. Long-term, both gold and Bitcoin are expected to appreciate against fiat currencies due to persistent monetary debasement, with leadership shifting from gold to Bitcoin once liquidity floodgates open.

marsbit01/09 06:43