A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now
The article "A New Perspective on Crypto's Four-Year Cycle: Insights from Seven Industry Veterans" explores whether the traditional four-year market cycle, historically driven by Bitcoin halving events, still holds true in today's crypto market. Key points from seven experts include:
- The four-year cycle, once driven by Bitcoin's supply reduction from halving, is now increasingly influenced by macro liquidity, institutional adoption, and global financial policies (e.g., U.S. elections, Fed policies).
- ETF inflows and institutional capital have altered price action, flattening post-halving rallies and reducing volatility as Bitcoin matures into a trillion-dollar asset.
- Experts disagree on the current market phase: some see a bearish transition due to declining miner profitability and capital outflow to AI stocks, while others view it as a mid-to-late bull cycle correction with potential for slow, structural growth driven by macro liquidity.
- The "altcoin season" may not return in its traditional form; future outperformance will likely be selective, focused on utility-driven projects rather than broad speculative rallies.
- Most experts have reduced altcoin exposure, favoring BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, with cash reserves above 50% in some cases.
- Advice for investors: avoid leverage, consider gradual accumulation (e.g., below $60K for BTC), and prioritize discipline over timing.
Consensus: The four-year cycle is evolving from a rigid halving-driven model to a more complex, macro-dependent framework, with reduced returns and slower, institution-led growth defining the future.
Odaily星球日报12/23 09:34
