# Loss Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Loss", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

MACD Real Backtest: Can Technical Indicators Lead You to Profit?

Based on a comprehensive 5-year backtest of the MACD trading strategy on BTC and ETH, this analysis delivers a sobering reality check for traders. The key finding is that 90% of short-term trading activity, particularly lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h), underperforms a simple "buy and hold" strategy due to transaction costs, noise, and psychological strain. The "benchmark" returns for simply holding the assets were +48.86% for BTC and +53.00% for ETH. The data reveals that MACD strategy performance is highly dependent on timeframe and leverage: * **Short Timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h):** Nearly all configurations resulted in significant losses or complete liquidation (-100%), severely underperforming the buy-and-hold benchmark. * **4-Hour Timeframe:** This was the only timeframe where the MACD strategy consistently generated alpha. * **BTC 4h (1x leverage):** ~+96% return, successfully outperforming buy-and-hold by avoiding major bear markets. * **ETH 4h (1x leverage):** ~+205% return, dramatically outperforming its buy-and-hold benchmark due to ETH's strong trend-following characteristics. * **Leverage Impact:** Leverage (2x, 3x) on the 4h timeframe amplified these gains effectively (e.g., ETH 4h 3x leverage yielded +552%). However, higher leverage (5x) often led to diminished returns due to funding fees and volatility decay, despite increased risk. The "Death Matrix" of results shows that short-term, high-leverage trading is akin to gambling" with a near-certain outcome of failure. The final recommendation is clear: for most investors, a buy-and-hold strategy is superior to active trading on low timeframes. For those seeking to outperform, the only viable approach is applying moderate leverage (2x-3x) exclusively on the 4-hour timeframe, with ETH presenting the best opportunity for significant excess returns.

marsbit01/17 08:45

MACD Real Backtest: Can Technical Indicators Lead You to Profit?

marsbit01/17 08:45

Fact Check: How Much Money Did the University of Chicago Really Lose in Cryptocurrency Trading?

Fact Check: Did the University of Chicago Lose Billions in Cryptocurrency Investments? A claim by Professor Zhao Dingxin suggested the University of Chicago lost over $6 billion in cryptocurrency investments, leading to budget cuts. However, the university’s official statement denies significant crypto losses, describing its crypto investments as "relatively small" and having doubled over five years. Financial reports show the university’s endowment ranged between $10.9–11.6 billion in recent years. A loss of $6 billion would require an implausibly large and risky allocation. More reliable sources, including the Stanford Daily, report actual crypto losses in the tens of millions—not billions. The university’s 2022 financial report indicated a drop in crypto holdings from $64 million to $45 million within a year, suggesting a loss of around $19 million. The university did experience a $1.5 billion total investment loss in FY2022, though it is unclear how much was related to crypto. Critics point to other major financial pressures, including $9.2 billion in debt from aggressive expansion and infrastructure projects. Administrative salaries also rose significantly during this period. In response to financial strain, the university is implementing budget cuts and plans to enroll more undergraduate students to increase revenue. The claim of a $6 billion crypto loss appears exaggerated and unsupported by official data.

marsbit01/15 04:52

Fact Check: How Much Money Did the University of Chicago Really Lose in Cryptocurrency Trading?

marsbit01/15 04:52

Telegram's 'Crypto Accounting': Surging Revenue Behind Net Losses and the $450 Million Token Sale Controversy

Telegram's recent unaudited financials reveal a paradox: soaring revenues accompanied by net losses. In H1 2025, revenue surged 65% year-over-year to $870 million, driven by an 88% jump in premium subscriptions ($223 million) and a key partnership with the TON blockchain, which contributed nearly $300 million. Despite an operating profit of nearly $400 million, the company reported a net loss of $222 million. This was primarily due to a significant write-down of its TON token holdings, whose value fell over 73% during the crypto market downturn. A major point of controversy was Telegram's sale of over $450 million worth of TON tokens, representing more than 10% of the token's circulating supply. Community concerns about a cash grab were addressed by TONStrategy Chairman Manuel Stotz, who clarified that the sales were to long-term investors like his NASDAQ-listed firm TONX. The tokens are subject to a four-year vesting period to prevent immediate selling pressure. Founder Pavel Durov framed this as part of a strategy to decentralization, aiming to keep Telegram's ownership of TON below 10% to avoid centralization concerns. Telegram's path to a potential IPO is being watched closely. The company has raised significant capital through bonds, including a recent $1.7 billion convertible note with terms favorable to investors if an IPO occurs before 2030. However, an ongoing legal investigation in France involving Durov presents a potential obstacle. With nearly 1 billion monthly active users, Telegram's deep integration with the volatile crypto ecosystem remains a double-edged sword—a major growth driver but also a source of financial risk—that investors must weigh.

链捕手01/10 14:46

Telegram's 'Crypto Accounting': Surging Revenue Behind Net Losses and the $450 Million Token Sale Controversy

链捕手01/10 14:46

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