# Insider Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Insider", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

War Won or Lost? Trump: Profited

Former President Trump claimed on Truth Social that productive U.S.-Iran talks had led to a 5-day delay in military strikes, causing immediate market reactions: gold rebounded over $200, oil dropped 14%, and S&P 500 futures rose nearly 4%. However, Iranian media denied any talks occurred, calling it a "psychological operation." Just before Trump’s post, large trades were detected—a $1.5 billion S&P 500 buy order and a $580 million crude oil sell-off—suggesting possible insider trading or sophisticated market anticipation of Trump’s pattern. This isn’t the first time Trump’s statements have moved markets; similar tactics were used during tariff policy shifts in 2025, where rumors and official posts created multiple market swings. Trump’s market influence may serve dual purposes: creating trading opportunities and using stock market gains as a proxy for economic success to bolster political support. Despite accusations, lack of direct evidence shields him from legal consequences. His actions highlight the intersection of financial markets, media, and political strategy.

Odaily星球日报03/24 11:21

Odaily星球日报03/24 11:21

Trump, the World's Largest Oil Trader

Donald Trump, described as the world's largest oil trader, used a post on Truth Social to claim "very good, productive" talks with Iran and announce a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy facilities. Minutes after the March 23 post, S&P 500 futures surged 2.7%, and Brent crude plummeted 13% to below $100, boosting U.S. stock market value by an estimated $1.7 trillion. Iran denied any talks, suggesting Trump manipulates oil prices weekly. Suspicious trading spikes occurred 15 minutes before the post, raising insider trading concerns, though regulators declined to comment. This mirrors a pattern: in 2020, Trump brokered OPEC+ cuts to raise prices, benefiting oil executives who funded his campaigns. Academic research confirms his social media moves oil markets. Now, his sons profit from military contracts: Donald Jr. invested in drone firms like Unusual Machines, which secured Army deals after his father’s election. With the Iran war boosting drone demand, the family benefits whether oil rises (more contracts) or falls (political wins). Trump’s power over oil—using policy, not money—makes him a unique market force.

marsbit03/24 04:05

marsbit03/24 04:05

How to Systematically Track High-Win-Rate Addresses on Polymarket?

This article explores methods to systematically identify and track high-success-rate addresses on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market where all transactions are publicly recorded on-chain. It highlights that while data is transparent, the key challenge lies in extracting meaningful signals from vast datasets to detect addresses with potential informational advantages. The piece outlines common characteristics of such addresses: new wallets making large, concentrated bets; specialization in specific verticals; abnormal changes in position size; and exceptionally precise timing, repeatedly entering positions hours before major news breaks. A three-step systematic approach is recommended: First, filter addresses based on sustained profitability (e.g., 30-day positive returns, >55% win rate) using leaderboards like Polymarket Analytics. Second, analyze their holdings in specific event markets, focusing on addresses that are consistently among the top holders before full market pricing. Third, scrutinize their on-chain behavior: entry timing relative to news, position-building patterns (e.g., rapid, concentrated entries), holding periods, and trading focus. Advanced strategies include monitoring exit behavior (e.g., large, unexplained sell-offs), conducting wallet clustering analysis to find linked addresses, tracking unusual volume spikes in low-liquidity markets, and cross-referencing on-chain activity with external real-world data for validation. The goal is to move beyond luck and identify addresses exhibiting repeatable, information-driven advantages.

marsbit03/02 11:35

How to Systematically Track High-Win-Rate Addresses on Polymarket?

marsbit03/02 11:35

How to Systematically Track High-Winning-Rate Addresses on Polymarket?

How to Systematically Track High-Win-Rate Wallets on Polymarket This article explores methods to identify and track high-performing wallets on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market where all transactions are publicly recorded on-chain. While the platform's data is transparent, the key challenge lies in interpreting this data to find wallets that consistently demonstrate an informational edge. The piece outlines common characteristics of potentially "insider" wallets, which are not necessarily illegal but show patterns of highly informed trading. These include: new addresses making large, concentrated bets; wallets specializing in a single niche topic; sudden, significant increases in position size; and extremely precise timing, repeatedly entering positions hours before major public news breaks. A three-step methodology for systematically identifying these wallets is provided: 1. Analyze Polymarket's leaderboard to filter for addresses with sustained profitability over 30 days, a high win rate (>55%), and significant profits in liquid markets. 2. Drill down into specific event markets to examine the top holders, looking for wallets that consistently hold large positions before the market has fully priced in an outcome. 3. Conduct a detailed analysis of the candidate wallets' on-chain history, focusing on their entry timing (pre-news vs. post-news), position-building strategy (rapid vs. gradual), holding period, and trading focus (specialized vs. generalized). The article concludes with advanced tracking strategies, emphasizing the importance of monitoring exit behavior (e.g., large sell-offs before bad news), performing cluster analysis to find linked addresses, watching for unusual volume in niche markets, and cross-referencing on-chain activity with real-world signals for stronger validation. The ultimate goal is to move beyond simple betting and use public on-chain data to find and learn from the most successful traders.

Odaily星球日报03/02 08:56

How to Systematically Track High-Winning-Rate Addresses on Polymarket?

Odaily星球日报03/02 08:56

US Government’s Bitcoin At Risk? The Insider Theft That Shocked The Community

On-chain investigator ZachXBT has identified John Daghita (aka Lick) as the threat actor who stole over $40 million from U.S. government crypto seizure addresses. His father’s company, Command Services & Support (CMDSS), held a government contract to assist the U.S. Marshals in managing seized crypto assets. ZachXBT traced the stolen funds to wallets linked to government seizures, including assets from the Bitfinex hack. The White House confirmed it is investigating the theft but has not disclosed whether its Bitcoin holdings were affected. The U.S. government currently holds 198,012 BTC, part of which was reportedly stolen after former President Trump signed an order allocating all government Bitcoin to a Strategic BTC Reserve.

bitcoinist01/27 22:02

US Government’s Bitcoin At Risk? The Insider Theft That Shocked The Community

bitcoinist01/27 22:02

Over 300K US Government Bitcoin at Risk After Alleged Insider Theft Exposes Custody Failures

A contractor's son allegedly stole over $40 million from U.S. government-seized cryptocurrency wallets, according to blockchain investigator ZachXBT. The theft is linked to insider access at Command Services & Support (CMDSS), a firm contracted by the U.S. Marshals Service to manage seized digital assets. The incident raises serious concerns about the security of billions in confiscated Bitcoin from cases like Silk Road and the Bitfinex hack. Evidence emerged from a leaked Telegram recording showing the suspect moving funds from government-linked wallets. While some funds were returned, approximately $700,000 remains missing. The breach highlights vulnerabilities in the government's custody systems, including reliance on basic tracking methods and potential insider threats. This incident may undermine confidence in the U.S. government's ability to safeguard and manage seized crypto assets.

ccn.com01/26 10:54

Over 300K US Government Bitcoin at Risk After Alleged Insider Theft Exposes Custody Failures

ccn.com01/26 10:54

Strategy stock jumps 6% as insider buys $780K – Will MSTR rally now?

MicroStrategy's (MSTR) stock surged 6.34% to $179.33, driven by a significant insider purchase and a rally in Bitcoin above $95,000. Director Carl Rickertsen bought 5,000 shares worth $780,000, marking his first open-market purchase since 2022. This signals leadership confidence after a 68% pullback from 2024 highs. Wall Street analysts project a bullish average 12-month price target of $448.18, implying nearly 150% upside. The company also expanded its Bitcoin holdings to 687,410 BTC. A major liquidity overhang was removed after MSCI postponed a decision that could have triggered $8.8 billion in forced selling, allowing MSTR to remain in key indexes.

ambcrypto01/15 19:02

Strategy stock jumps 6% as insider buys $780K – Will MSTR rally now?

ambcrypto01/15 19:02

‘Yes’ shares surged before the news – Polymarket’s Maduro warning decoded

Hours before the public announcement of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's arrest, three digital wallets on the prediction market Polymarket placed high-risk bets on his removal from power, collectively profiting $630,484. One wallet turned $34,000 into $410,000—a 1,100% return. The suspicious timing, with trades executed just before a U.S. military operation, has raised concerns in Washington about insider information leaks via prediction markets. This prompted U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres to introduce a bill banning federal officials from betting on events they might influence. Meanwhile, crypto markets showed resilience, with Bitcoin briefly dipping before recovering above $91,000. The incident underscores how decentralized platforms could be exploited for informed, high-stakes trading.

ambcrypto01/05 07:01

‘Yes’ shares surged before the news – Polymarket’s Maduro warning decoded

ambcrypto01/05 07:01

The Pentagon's Pizza, Polymarket's Money

Summary: During the Cold War, Soviet agents monitored late-night pizza deliveries to the Pentagon as an indicator of imminent military action, a pattern later dubbed the "Pentagon Pizza Index." In 2024, a Twitter account @PenPizzaReport automated this surveillance using Google Maps data to track foot traffic at pizzerias near the Pentagon, accurately predicting events like Israel's airstrike on Iran and the U.S. raid in Venezuela. Concurrently, on the prediction market Polymarket, three newly created wallets placed large, well-timed bets on Venezuelan leader Maduro's ousting, netting $630,000 just hours before the operation. This highlights a shift in how information is accessed and monetized: once a secret intelligence tool, predictive signals are now public, blurring lines between open data, insider knowledge, and speculative profit.

marsbit01/04 06:43

The Pentagon's Pizza, Polymarket's Money