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Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

Amid a surprisingly hawkish shift from the Fed and most of Wall Street capitulating on rate cut expectations, Citigroup stands as a notable outlier, holding firm to its forecast for monetary easing to restart this October. Following the June FOMC meeting, where the "dovish bias" was removed and the dot plot shifted dramatically, markets priced in nearly 37bps of tightening for 2026. Major banks like Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs revised their calls, predicting rate hikes as soon as September. Citigroup, however, maintains a baseline scenario for a 25bps rate cut in October, followed by two more cuts in December and January 2027. Its counter-consensus view rests on three key arguments: 1) Plunging oil prices are eliminating a major inflation upside risk. 2) Rising initial jobless claims are mirroring seasonal weakening patterns seen in 2024-2025, signaling a labor market cool-down. 3) The strong core PCE is an "outlier," heavily influenced by AI-related prices and equity market gains rather than broad consumer price pressures, with other inflation metrics showing more moderation. While Wall Street largely "surrenders" to the hawkish Fed narrative, with Deutsche Bank forecasting two hikes and Goldman Sachs warning of potential back-to-back moves, Citigroup remains the "last holdout," betting that disinflationary forces will pave the way for cuts before year-end.

marsbit06/22 10:39

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

marsbit06/22 10:39

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