Original|Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser(@wenser 2010)
Time is running out for traditional betting companies. This might be the latest consensus in the prediction market sector.
At the recently concluded Oscars event, the total funds wagered on Kalshi and Polymarket surpassed $100 million for the first time, a figure that was still under ten million dollars last year. On another front, Kalshi partnered with Cash APP to streamline user payment channels; after launching its AI Agent CLI application, Polymarket now supports 24/7 trading by AI Agents through the AgentCard launched by Alchemy. In this "big year for predictions" full of historic moments in 2026, the two giants of the prediction market are finding their own ways to attract new users from traditional betting companies, internet platforms, and even traditional media and finance industries. This time, they have first targeted real users from payment channels and tireless AI Agents.
New Victories for Prediction Market Giants: Payment Channels and AI Agent Users
Last week, renowned investment firm Paradigm released its first public opinion survey report of the year, also the firm's first survey report on prediction market platforms.
The survey results show that over one-third (approximately 36%) of American voters have already used prediction markets, either to place bets or to browse the markets for information.
In terms of user demographics, the prediction market user base under 50 years old accounts for a high 66%, with 18-34 year olds making up 20% and 35-49 year olds making up 27%; the usage rate among non-white voters is slightly higher than that of white voters, and the usage rate among men is significantly higher than that of women (46% vs. 31%).
From this perspective, in the US market, prediction markets are no longer a "niche sector" but have become an "information source," "trading desk," and "information pool" closely related to millions of households.
Of course, as the lead investor in Kalshi's last $1 billion funding round, Paradigm's move is undoubtedly "shouting out for his bag" (promoting his investment), which is understandable. However, a new question is reflected behind this survey—how will the prediction market duopoly, Kalshi and Polymarket, penetrate the remaining 64% of American voters and even the entire US citizenry?
The answer is naturally: either wage war against the old forces; or find new growth avenues.
Kalshi's New Growth Method: Opening Payment Channels, Encouraging User Deposits
During the week of March 2nd to March 8th, the number of transactions on Kalshi exceeded 20 million for the first time, setting a new weekly transaction record since the platform's inception. With trading volume and transaction numbers continuously hitting new highs, tapping into existing user pools would be an efficient strategy to reach even further.
This is likely the reason Kalshi announced a partnership with Block's payment application, Cash APP, last week. Kalshi's official statement was even more direct—"Make funding your Kalshi account easier with Cash App Pay." The wording almost spells out "Quick, use Cash App Pay to deposit money and start betting" on its face.
After all, even a one percent conversion rate from Cash App's 59 million monthly active transacting users would bring Kalshi close to 600,000 new users, equivalent to the user base it might gain from two or three years of hard work. More importantly, these are all "incremental gains."
Polymarket's Market Expansion Method: Targeting AI Agents as Well as Humans
On the other side of the prediction market, the other duopoly, Polymarket, is also performing impressively.
Since resuming operations in the US last November, as of March 14th, the nominal trading volume on Polymarket's US platform has exceeded $750 million, with over 5 million transactions. The platform's open interest once reached as high as $2.6 million and has recently settled around $1 million.
Furthermore, according to Dune data, since it began charging transaction fees on certain markets (including NCAA and crypto price movement markets) starting January 6th, Polymarket has accumulated over $11.2 million in fee revenue. In other words, Polymarket has fully validated its ability to generate revenue.
Therefore, the ambitious Polymarket is no longer satisfied with just the existing market of human users and has instead begun betting on enabling 24/7 trading by AI Agents.
Last weekend, the crypto payment platform Alchemy officially launched the AI agent payment platform AgentCard. In addition to conventional functions like food delivery ordering and AI application subscriptions, it specifically emphasized that "users' AI Agents can now trade on Polymarket 24/7"; this announcement was subsequently confirmed by a repost from Polymarket's official account.
Against the backdrop of OpenClaw "Lobster" going viral, and the emergence of standards like x402, ERC8004, and ERC8183 supporting AI Agent payments, combined with Polymarket's previously designed Polymarket CLI for AI Agents—a tool for querying prediction market data, executing orders, managing positions, and interacting with on-chain contracts—a prediction market platform tailored for AI Agents is gradually taking shape.
Much like Circle, which transformed from a "stablecoin issuer" into an "infrastructure builder for the AI era finance," Polymarket has抢先 seized the crucial position of being a "prediction market platform for AI Agents." As Nvidia founder Jensen Huang stated at last year's CES, the AI Agent industry will become a trillion-dollar market, much like the robotics industry, and the 24/7 tireless AI Agents might first shine brightly in prediction markets.
Conclusion: The New War in Prediction Markets Has Begun
Undoubtedly, a new war for prediction market platforms has quietly begun. This includes deeply activating existing users, continuously incentivizing active users, and constantly converting new users; it also involves expanding the boundaries of event types, engaging in dialogue with regulatory forces, and even future-oriented development targeting "potential active users" like AI Agents.
Previously, Dingaling, founder of the BSC ecosystem prediction market platform Predict.fun, also planned to launch products combining prediction markets with DeFi, intending to provide users with interest-bearing收益型 products related to account fund management, which can be considered a form of "PayFi yield product" and is also quite值得期待.
Regardless of how the prediction market develops, on the path to seeking $20 billion or more in funding, Kalshi and Polymarket have already activated new growth levers.
