Solana metrics turn bullish – But is cooling volume a red flag?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-20Last updated on 2026-01-20

Abstract

Solana's on-chain metrics showed strong bullish signals, with active addresses surging 56% in a week and weekly transactions reaching 515 million. Derivatives and spot market data indicated buyer dominance, reinforcing a positive longer-term trend. However, spot trading volume has been cooling since late November, resembling patterns from the 2022 bear market more than the current cycle, suggesting a potential continuation of bearish conditions. Despite this, HODLers have been accumulating SOL, and exchange outflows signal holder confidence. While the network activity surge is positive, failure to reclaim the $150 level points to a cautious longer-term outlook.

Solana [SOL] on-chain metrics signaled strong demand and network usage. Active Addresses surged by 56% in a week, and the weekly transactions climbed to 515 million, AMBCrypto reported.

The surge in activity coincided with a breakout from the regression channel. Derivatives positioning further signaled that the market was anticipating additional upside.

CryptoQuant data agreed with these findings. The spot taker CVD showed a taker-buy dominant phase, and the futures CVD was also buyer dominant. The metrics measure the cumulative difference between market buy and sell volumes over 90 days.

Together, they were potent bullish longer-term signals. In the short-term, Bitcoin [BTC] has fallen below the $94.5k local support, but it was able to bounce back above $93k.

Solana had fallen to the $130-$133 local demand zone, which the buyers were defending at the time of writing.

Spot Volume cools, what does it mean for SOL trends

The spot volume bubble map illustrates both the size of spot trading volumes and their rate of change. Decreased volume, or cooling, is indicated in green, while overheating is red.

Since the final week of November, the spot volume has been falling. A cooling phase can mark consolidation and local market bottoms during a strong uptrend. However, market conditions might have shifted.

The extended cooling phase in recent weeks was more similar to that of 2022 than to 2024-25. Following the end of the previous cycle, reduced trading volume signaled a continuation of the bearish market.

The same scenario is likely repeating now.

On the other hand, bulls will be thrilled to note that the HODLer net position change has been positive since the final week of December. In other words, holders were accumulating SOL. The exchange position change metric agreed with this finding.

The red bars on the metric since mid-December showed that SOL was flowing out of exchanges. While it was another signal of accumulation, bulls should be careful.

Neither metric guarantees an explosive price rally. Rather, it might be a good time for long-term investors to consider dollar-cost averaging into a position.


Final Thoughts

  • The uptick in Solana network activity despite the price dip and market-wide volatility was a positive sign.
  • The inability to reclaim $150 revealed a bearish longer-term outlook, even though some metrics showed accumulation.

Related Questions

QWhat on-chain metrics signaled strong demand and network usage for Solana according to the article?

AActive Addresses surged by 56% in a week, and weekly transactions climbed to 515 million. Additionally, the spot taker CVD and futures CVD were both buyer-dominant, indicating strong demand.

QWhat does the cooling spot volume (shown in green on the bubble map) potentially indicate for the market?

AA cooling phase can mark consolidation and local market bottoms during a strong uptrend. However, the extended cooling in recent weeks is more similar to the 2022 bear market, where reduced volume signaled a continuation of the downtrend, suggesting the same scenario might be repeating now.

QWhat bullish signals were observed regarding Solana holder behavior since late December?

AThe HODLer net position change has been positive, indicating accumulation, and the exchange position change metric showed SOL flowing out of exchanges (red bars), which is another signal of accumulation.

QWhat key resistance level did Solana fail to reclaim, indicating a bearish longer-term outlook?

ASolana was unable to reclaim the $150 level, which revealed a bearish longer-term outlook despite some positive on-chain metrics.

QWhat was the significance of the local demand zone for Solana's price mentioned in the article?

ASolana had fallen to the $130-$133 local demand zone, which the buyers were actively defending at the time of writing, indicating a critical support level.

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