Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have endured weeks of prolonged unrest, with macro pressures driving prices into a sideways grind. The Total Crypto Market Capitalization sat roughly at $2.4 trillion, at press time.
Heightened war tensions across West Asia have added another layer of uncertainty, placing the market in an increasingly precarious position.
Yet eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert, speaking to CoinHeadlines, argued that the market could still weather the storm.
Oil shock, market chaos
Gilbert described the current environment as a headline-driven market where oil prices have become the central source of uncertainty, pushing investors to de-risk their crypto holdings.
Key pressure points, including the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure across the region, have been directly affected.
The main sort of headline here is obviously oil and oil prices, and that then infects everything through to rates and inflation,” he said.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has already hiked rates for the second consecutive meeting in response. The US Federal Reserve held rates steady on the 25th of March, keeping sentiment calm for now, but Gilbert warned that may not last.
If we see the oil-driven inflation is forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, or worse, even sort of ultimately raise them again, I do think that we will see Bitcoin and crypto under pressure.
Crypto market and Bitcoin’s quiet stand
Despite the headwinds, Bitcoin [BTC] has not suffered a significant decline since the conflict escalated.
Much of the prior sell pressure stemmed from the liquidation cascade following the market event crash on the 10th of October, 2025, and since then, Bitcoin has held a range of roughly $65,000 to $76,000.
Gilbert added
I actually think the downside risk was much higher than what we’ve actually seen. Since this conflict started, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, it’s outperformed the S&P 500, the NASDAQ.
He credited the market’s maturation for the resilience.
Back then, it was a very different period. We had no spot ETFs, no corporate treasury buying billion-dollar positions, no sovereign wealth funds putting capital to work. Whereas today, we’ve got all three of those.
ETF inflows recovering after heavy February outflows reinforced his view. “It tells us that institutional demand is still there.”
What the numbers are telling us
Bitcoin’s Spot activity gives a clear view of the broader market, and right now, it shows a holding pattern.
Spot holders form Bitcoin’s long-term base and do not use leverage. Their activity has stayed quiet. Over the past 60 days, Spot Net Inflows have remained low compared to stronger market phases.
Total accumulation during this period stands at just $4.99 billion. Without stronger buying, Bitcoin may stay range-bound. The next move depends on how key factors play out.
Final Summary
- West Asia war’s impact on inflation could be the key factor deterring crypto’s next rally, despite the market holding up decently so far.
- $4.99 billion in Bitcoin accumulation signals tepid demand, insufficient to drive a sustained market rally.
