Last Week's Recap: The U.S. military's latest strikes on Iran rapidly escalated tensions in the Middle East, driving oil prices significantly higher and pushing U.S. Treasury yields up. Asian risk assets came under widespread pressure—the Seoul Composite Index plunged by as much as 4%. Against a backdrop of weakening gold and a strong U.S. dollar, risk appetite in the crypto market faced clear external headwinds in the short term. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has shrunk by $10 billion since May, with a net outflow of $7.7 billion in June alone. The weekly trading volume on South Korea's top five crypto exchanges fell below 10 trillion won, hitting a new low in nearly 2 years and 9 months. Although the broader market faced pressure, Robinhood L2 achieved over $70 million in ETH bridging in its first week after launch, boosting optimism around the Ethereum ecosystem. Additionally, Circle gaining approval to establish a U.S. national trust bank injected confidence into the industry's long-term compliant funding channels. The correction signals in the AI sector also warrant attention; last week, U.S. AI stocks saw an average pullback of over 30% from recent highs—Micron fell 30%, Sandisk dropped 37%, and SK Hynix declined 35%. A sharp rise in macro-geopolitical risks combined with shrinking on-chain liquidity suggests the crypto market may be in a "risk-aversion driven" defensive phase in the short term, with Bitcoin currently trading in a "high-value range."
Outlook Analysis: On July 20th, the U.S. Senate will deliberate on the CLARITY Act. The core disputes of the bill currently center on three aspects: ethical restrictions on government officials participating in the crypto industry, liability exemptions for software developers, and the incentive mechanisms for stablecoins. The direction of this bill could reshape the future regulatory framework for the industry. The ripple effects of the escalating Middle East tensions extend beyond energy prices—they also raise concerns about a potential rebound in inflation, which could impact expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in July, potentially providing temporary relief from liquidity shocks caused by yen carry trades. Going forward, close attention must be paid to oil price movements and the transmission effects of a strong dollar on risk assets. Notably, Hyundai Motor became the first major South Korean corporation to introduce internal stablecoin transfers—a sign that the trend of traditional giants embracing Web3 technology is accelerating.
Market View: The market is currently in a state of "macro risk aversion versus price action contention." Hammered by the dual impact of Middle East tensions and capital outflows, bullish momentum is temporarily constrained. Ahead of the important regulatory bill's outcome next week, off-exchange capital is adopting a wait-and-see stance. The market is highly likely to maintain a range-bound, liquidity-seeking pattern.
