Monero [XMR] could offer late bulls a buying opportunity if its Q4 2025 trend repeats itself. Like the rest of the altcoin market, the Santa rally lifted it by 7% from $432 to over $460. This followed a slight easing in Bitcoin dominance that offered a relief rally for altcoins.
However, XMR’s bounce also came with thin liquidity and low trading volumes, and could be quickly reversed if the conditions persist into the new year.
Still, such a scenario could be a juicy entry point for near-term bulls.
Will XMR drop to $400-$420 support?
The $400-$420 area (white) was a May price peak and a resistance zone in H2 2025 that was only cleared in mid-December.
As such, defending the level as support could set XMR for the next leg of its rally. Additionally, the price zone converged with the 50-day Moving Average (MA).
Throughout Q4, the price bounced off the 50-day MA (white line). So, if the trend repeats itself and the price tag hits the level again, this could be a new buying opportunity.
That being said, the MACD was on the verge of a Death Cross at press time. This could drag XMR lower, likely to the Moving Average. In fact, the previous Death Cross signals in October, November, and December all eased at the Moving Average.
This further supported the aforementioned thesis and calls for patience for late bulls. The immediate target would be $470, alluding to potential gains of 15% from the support level.
However, a sustained drop below the 50-day Moving Average would invalidate the thesis.
No overheated market yet...
A broader weak market sentiment could send XMR lower in early 2026. However, such a risk was not evident on the Futures market at the time of writing.
In fact, there haven’t been many retail investors jumping on the asset with leverage – A lack of euphoria that underlined a healthy market for XMR.
In the past, ‘too many retail’ signals were followed by a retracement.
Still, XMR’s market sentiment has not been fully into the positive territory for another upswing. In fact, the sentiment has been predominantly negative during the Christmas week. If it resets to positive, it could further bolster recovery odds.
Final Thoughts
- XMR saw a modest rally during Christmas week, but late bulls could still get a new buying opportunity.
- The Futures market was healthy, but market sentiment has remained weak for a sustainable recovery.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion
