Author: Metrics Ventures
Metrics Ventures December Market Observation Guide
1/ As 2025 is almost settled, first and foremost, we wish all MVC friends a happy holidays! Looking back, 2025 has been a cold year for crypto investments, with crypto assets ranking at the bottom in terms of annual returns in the dollar market, which is mainly due to the Q4 collapse. At the year's end, we hope everyone can take advantage of the dull market to rest more and recharge for the coming year.
2/ The market over the past month actually hasn't been particularly noteworthy for analysis. The market is in a lifeless, chaotic state, with trading volumes continuously shrinking on both CEXs and the NYSE, volatility sharply converging, and the exchange of chips within the current narrow range approaching its end. What makes high-frequency traders even more uncomfortable is that this contraction shows no sign of a near-term turning point. So-called "painting the door" and "flash crashes" are expected to be the main themes in the near future. This period might be more suitable for resting and organizing thoughts, engaging in more systematic thinking about the market.
Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Conditions and Trends
Compared to the crypto market, the recent protagonist in the capital markets has been precious metals. The Q4行情 (market trend/action) anticipated within the circle did happen, but it was usurped by silver—the monthly trading volume of silver on the Shanghai Silver Exchange alone has now exceeded 7,500 billion RMB, and the open interest in options on COMEX is several times the actual market inventory. This frenzy is reminiscent of the crypto market in 2020-2021, and in contrast, Bitcoin's lethargic state is lamentable. Specifically, since October, the relative price strength of gold versus Bitcoin has also broken through the long-term downward trend channel since the 2020 easing, making this high-level capital rotation even more直观 (intuitive/visually clear).
Chart: Gold to Bitcoin Price Exchange Rate Pair
Of course, there are still some positive signals in the market. MSTR retaining its NASDAQ100 index status, the clearer direction indicated by the Fed Chair, and the potential crisis of the AI bubble all provide support for the 2026 market outlook. Standing at the end of 2025, we still believe this is a continuation of the year-long consolidation that began at the end of 2024. In the midst of price fluctuations with wide ranges, there will always be times of ebb and flow. Now is the time to conserve energy and build up strength.
This month's report is relatively brief, which also aligns more with our theme that it's a suitable time for rest. Once again, we wish everyone a happy holidays! See you in 2026!
