- Bitcoin bounced from the 4H FVG around $64,000.
- Ethereum approached $2000 and maintains a stronger structure.
- DXY is trading near 101,271 ahead of the Fed decision.
- US PCE, GDP, and Powell's rhetoric will be the main triggers of the week.
Disclaimer: The material is not financial advice or a call to action. The presented analysis is the private opinion of its author. Incrypted is not responsible for readers' investment decisions.
Bitcoin and Ethereum — Fed Expectations, Liquidity Shortage, and Assault on Highs
The past trading week passed without high volatility and pronounced price action. The geopolitical background cooled noticeably by the weekend — despite Trump's loud threats of heavy bombing, the escalation temperature decreased. Consequently, the Bitcoin chart executed a technical bounce from the first zone of interest in the form of a four-hour fair value gap (4H FVG) around $64,000. Entering trades before the weekend against such an unpredictable news background was an unjustified risk, so we decided to preserve capital.
The current structure of a rally without a pullback raises questions, but the market continues to look upward. We analyze the current scenarios for the main assets this week.
Bitcoin — Plan for the Week
Scenario A — Taking Out Key Targets
The current uptrend looks heavy because the market maker barely tests liquidity from below. At the same time, the primary goal of buyers remains the removal of the pool at $67,255 and the complete filling of the upper inefficiency zone.
It is from there that it will be technically justified to look for short positions with the aim of returning to the round $60,000. We are watching the lower timeframes to find a quick speculative long.
Scenario B — A Light Pullback for Local Refueling
Before the week's close, the chart left a small liquidity pool with retail stops. An ideal maneuver is a quick squeeze down to collect them and then continue the rally. Only the mechanics of recent weeks are concerning: corrections usually happen quickly and sharply, while the rally is drawn-out and slow.
Scenario C — A Reversal into Correction from Current Levels
The least likely but possible scenario. The idea involves a deep pullback without first taking out the upper targets, potentially down to interacting with the $60,800 zone. Powerful macroeconomic surprises this week could activate this route, so it cannot be completely ruled out.
What Determines the Balance of Power This Week
- MicroStrategy report. We await data on Michael Saylor's operations. Yesterday's rumors already heated up the public. The main intrigue — was he buying, selling, or simply redistributing reserves for issuing new shares for future Bitcoin purchases?
- US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The base rate will almost certainly remain unchanged with 99% probability. The key trigger is Powell's rhetoric: any hints of a possible rate hike in September will become a harsh signal for risk-off.
- The Middle East and the Trump factor. Delaying tactics historically precede drastic steps. Congress's decision to block unilateral US military action in Iran adds absurdity and unpredictability. Order books may react nervously.
- Corporate earnings season. Major US companies publish financial results. Decorrelation with stock indices and local impulsive liquidations are possible.
Ethereum — Leading Momentum and Test of $2000
The main altcoin executed the initial scenario from last week strictly by the book. The $1800 level not only held — the price didn't even test it, instantly producing a strong upward reaction.
At one point, we took liquidity from last week's high (PWH) at $1946 and are currently trading around $1964, closely approaching last month's high (PMH) at $2020.
The Ethereum Dominance Index remains on the buyers' side. It is precisely the strength of dominance that allowed Ethereum to capture moves more aggressively than the major. As long as this indicator does not start breaking structure downward, the priority remains on searching for longs. Technically, the chart has entered the final stretch before the PMH. If the $2020 mark is passed on real volume and not just an emotional spike, the direct path to $2100 will open.
At the same time, it's important to remember the unfilled 4H FVG at $1640-$1700 and the level of last week's low (PWL) $1841 below. They remain our hedges in case of a trend change.
Scenario A — Breakout of PMH and Impulse to $2100
The price successfully accumulates volume near the round $2000, breaks the PMH $2020, and continues the rally without a pullback into the $2100 area. This option is valid as long as Ethereum dominance maintains an upward structure and the buyer retains initiative.
Scenario B — Correction Before the Final Push
A small pullback into the zone of nested 4H FVG $1880-$1920 to collect local liquidity. After unloading indicators — a reversal and a renewed attempt to storm the PMH $2020. This is a good working option for refueling.
Scenario C — Rejection of Growth and Deep Sync with Bitcoin
If the overall macro backdrop worsens, we get an aggressive structure break. The asset goes into a deep correction, dipping into the $1640-$1700 range and potentially testing the PWL $1841. Currently, this is the least likely scenario, but it requires strict stop orders when trading from the long side.
Trading Tactics
Rushing now makes no sense. You can always give your stops to the market later, but waiting for a quality setup and taking a clear, grounded take is the number one task. We plan to work precisely, exclusively intraday on lower timeframes, constantly checking against Ethereum dominance and the charts' reaction to the Fed meeting.
Dollar Index — Bounce from Local Lows, Assault on the Upper Imbalance, and Moment of Truth at the Fed Meeting
Retrospective and Current Position
The past trading week made its adjustments to the dollar's dynamics. Despite deflationary signals from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), the Dollar Index (DXY) found strong limit support near the 100.353 mark and transitioned to a confident recovery.
DXY absorbed local selling volume, rose above key medium-term marks, and formed a new weekly high (PWH) at 101.544.
At the moment, DXY is trading around 101.271, squeezed right under the upper four-hour imbalance zone. The market is in a state of extreme tension: this five-day period will be the culmination of the entire month.
The Fed meeting, Powell's press conference, as well as US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) data will determine whether the dollar can develop a full-fledged medium-term rally or return to a downtrend.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour timeframe, price boundaries have shifted significantly higher. The index shows signs of a bullish impulse but has hit a key resistance block.
Key structural levels:
- PWH 101.544 and PMH 101.800 — the fresh weekly high and global monthly resistance, which act as the main barrier for continued growth;
- PWL 100.650 — the new weekly low, nearest engineering support, and a fixed liquidity pool below;
- PML 98.919 — the strategic monthly low, which remains the strategic target for bears in case of a global structure break;
- 4H FVG zones: directly above the current price, around 101.35-101.45, the upper inefficiency zone is being traded. Below, right above the PWL, a fresh bullish 4H FVG 100.55-100.70 has formed, and even deeper lies an unfilled block 100.10-100.25.
Current Trading Scenarios
Scenario A — Local Pullback to the 4H FVG/PWL Zone with Subsequent Bounce
The index cannot find strength for an immediate breakout of the upper boundary and gives a moderate correction to the support area around PWL 100.650 and the lower 4H FVG. New long volume accumulates there, after which DXY reverses and resumes upward movement towards the upper targets.
Scenario B — Aggressive Breakout of PWH and Move Towards Monthly Highs
Against a backdrop of hawkish Powell rhetoric or strong GDP and PCE data, the dollar impulsively breaks through PWH 101.544, consolidates above, and heads for a full test of PMH 101.800, moving into the 102.00+ area.
For the crypto market, such a turn would signal a deep correction and the unwinding of risk positions.
Scenario C — Sharp Rejection from the Upper Imbalance and Dump Through PWL
The index gets rejected in the current upper 4H FVG zone, breaks the local bullish structure, and goes into an impulsive drop, taking out PWL 100.650 and deeply plunging into the lower inefficiency blocks 100.10-100.25.
Such a dollar sell-off would free the hands of Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to assault their key resistance levels.
Weekly News Triggers
- Tuesday, July 28, 17:00 — CB Consumer Confidence Index for July;
- Wednesday, July 29, 17:30 — US Crude Oil Inventories;
- Wednesday, July 29, 21:00 — Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Statement;
- Wednesday, July 29, 21:30 — FOMC Press Conference and Powell's Speech;
- Thursday, July 30, 15:30 — Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for June, US Q2 GDP, and Weekly Jobless Claims.
Sentiment and Tactics
Until Wednesday evening, DXY will likely be squeezed in a consolidation corridor. The real impulse and determination of the medium-term trend will occur during the Fed announcement and the reaction to PCE data on Thursday.
Action plan: Avoid medium-term entries on thin order books until the main fundamental events are resolved.
Trade exclusively on lower timeframes intraday, strictly control stop orders, and make strategic decisions on risk assets only after the DXY daily candles close.
