Ethereum revenue drop to $600mln – Is BMNR’s ETH strategy at risk?

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-16Last updated on 2025-12-16

Abstract

Ethereum's revenue has sharply declined from $2.52 billion to around $604 million this year, largely due to the growing role of Layer-2 scaling solutions like Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon. While L2s improve scalability and reduce fees, they capture most transaction value, returning only a small portion to Ethereum as settlement fees. This revenue leakage weakens ETH’s on-chain fundamentals and keeps the network net inflationary, limiting upward price momentum. Amid this trend, BitMine (BMNR)—with a significant Ethereum-heavy treasury holding 3.66 million ETH—faces increased risk. Recent large ETH accumulations by BMNR-linked wallets failed to boost ETH’s price above $3,200, while BMNR’s token fell over 9% in a day, extending quarterly losses to 32%. The fund’s substantial ETH exposure appears more speculative than strategic, especially given declining fee burn and softer network activity. If these conditions persist, BMNR’s net asset value could deteriorate further.

As Layer-1 use cases grow, scalability becomes an unavoidable challenge.

Notably, Ethereum [ETH] has addressed this by leaning into Layer-2s, creating a network designed to preserve throughput, keep fees low, and scale transaction volume without persistent network congestion.

In essence, scalability has been a key pillar of ETH’s mainstream adoption.

However, that pillar now appears to be under pressure. According to a prominent analyst, Ethereum’s revenue this year has declined sharply, falling from $2.52 billion at the start of the year to around $604 million.

Base [BASE], an Ethereum Layer-2 scaling solution, highlights this shift.

As the chart showed, Base’s 365-day Cumulative Revenue was about $83 million, but only roughly 8% of that was paid back to Ethereum as settlement fees. That’s around $6.7 million, contributing to ETH’s revenue decline.

Notably, this revenue-leakage pattern is consistent across most L2s. Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon, for instance, all capture a similar share of value, which gradually weakens Ethereum’s direct fee capture over time.

Put simply, weaker revenue capture points to softer ETH activity.

In that context, what exactly is BitMine [BMNR] positioning for? Does this suggest its treasury accumulation is more speculative than fundamentally driven?

BitMine’s Ethereum exposure turns speculative

BMNR’s portfolio is clearly Ethereum-heavy, holding 3.66 million ETH.

Recently, a wallet linked to BitMine added 38,596 ETH over just two days, a sizable accumulation that might have been expected to move markets. Yet, the impact was muted, with the coin staying capped below $3,200.

The effect on BMNR was more pronounced. On the daily chart, the token closed 9.17% down, deepening the quarterly losses. With a 32% decline so far, Q4 is shaping up to be BMNR’s worst quarter since Q3 2022.

Put simply, BMNR’s Ethereum-heavy bets aren’t delivering.

On top of that, weak on-chain fundamentals (underperforming L2s) mean there aren’t enough transactions burning fees to curb supply. Ethereum stays net inflationary, keeping upward price pressure muted.

In this context, BMNR’s ETH accumulation looks less like a strategic position and more like a speculative move. If this continues, BMNR’s mNAV could drop further, highlighting the risks of its heavy Ethereum exposure.

Final Thoughts

  • Ethereum’s Layer-2s (Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon) capture most transaction value, leaving ETH fee revenue down.
  • BitMine’s MNAV is under pressure. Weak L2 fundamentals and muted ETH price response make the fund’s ETH-heavy treasury accumulation look increasingly speculative.

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