Source | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Azuma(@azuma_eth)
Original Title | The Day CZ Missed the Best Investment of His Life, Crypto Missed AI
In 2014, CZ, who had only been exposed to the concept of cryptocurrency for a year, made the most daring investment of his life—he sold his apartment in Shanghai and "all-in" bought approximately 1,500 BTC at a three-digit price. 12 years later, if CZ had never sold, this investment could have yielded hundreds of millions of dollars in profits (peak returns of approximately $189 million).
Compared to his subsequent achievements of founding Binance and becoming the industry leader, the returns from this investment are insignificant to CZ. However, from an external perspective, this idealistic "all-in" move remains one of CZ's most talked-about actions.
Yet, it is lamentable that even someone as resolute and decisive as CZ once missed an investment with potential profits a hundred times greater than "selling a house to buy Bitcoin" in a highly dramatic fashion.
Rewind 1,188 Days: The Acquisition That Was a Feint
November 9, 2022, was a sleepless night for the cryptocurrency industry.
Just the day before, FTX, then a shining star in the industry, suspended withdrawals due to a liquidity crisis. Panic spread rapidly through the community, and the damp smell of an impending storm began to permeate the market... The rest of the story is well-known: FTX collapsed, triggering a domino effect that plunged the market into a prolonged winter lasting several years.
In a parallel universe, the story could have taken a different turn. In the early hours of November 9, SBF and CZ issued statements announcing that FTX had preliminarily reached an acquisition agreement with Binance.
SBF: Hello everyone. I have some news to announce. Things have come full circle. FTX's first and last investors are the same group—we have reached a strategic transaction agreement with Binance (pending due diligence).
CZ: This afternoon, FTX approached us for assistance. The exchange is currently facing severe liquidity issues. To protect users, we have signed a non-binding letter of intent to fully acquire FTX and address the liquidity crisis. We will conduct comprehensive due diligence in the coming days.
However, the acquisition ultimately fell through. Just one day later, Binance officially announced the abandonment of the acquisition, citing "issues beyond our control," which became the final straw that broke FTX.
Did CZ genuinely consider acquiring FTX? Was the hastily concluded acquisition drama a sincere attempt to help or merely a ploy to gauge the opponent's "health bar"? This may forever remain a mystery. From the outcome, CZ personally defeated his biggest competitor at the time, solidifying Binance's position as the industry leader.
But no one could have predicted that a seemingly insignificant "side bet" in FTX's asset portfolio would rapidly appreciate in value over the next few years, now far exceeding the total value of the remaining assets from that unfinished acquisition.
From a "Side Bet" to the Center of AI
In April 2022 (the official announcement date, though the transaction was actually completed in 2021), FTX made its most significant investment in the AI field—leading a $580 million Series B funding round for AI startup Anthropic with a $500 million investment. FTX initially held a 13.56% equity stake, which was later diluted to 7.84% as Anthropic completed multiple rounds of funding.
This was an era when AI's potential had not yet exploded. Just six months later (in late November 2022, the same month FTX collapsed), OpenAI's ChatGPT emerged, irreversibly ushering the world into the "Age of Exploration" for AI. Anthropic, with its Claude series of products (especially the programming-oriented Claude Code), repeatedly amazed the world, gradually becoming one of the most prominent companies in the AI era.
As Claude continued to evolve, Anthropic's valuation also climbed. Capital eagerly poured in, desperate to secure a spot on Anthropic's journey to an IPO. The latest market rumor is that Anthropic is in the final stages of another large funding round, expected to exceed $20 billion (originally planned to raise $10 billion, but investor demand far exceeded expectations, potentially doubling the final amount). The valuation could reach $350 billion, and the transaction may be completed as early as this week.
At the latest valuation of $350 billion, FTX's former equity in Anthropic would be worth approximately $27.44 billion, enough to cover the reserve shortfall that led to its bankruptcy multiple times... But history has already unfolded, and the outcome is set.
It's hard not to marvel at SBF's rare talent for venture capital (he also invested in the now-popular Cursor during its seed round), but clearly, he was not a qualified enterprise operator, especially lacking in risk control. CZ's profile is the opposite: he is an exceptional master of enterprise operations. Binance's dominance is inseparable from his多次正确的战略决策 (multiple correct strategic decisions), but CZ often describes himself as not a traditional investor solely pursuing returns—he doesn't trade cryptocurrencies and prefers to be a builder of the industry.
A Hasty Ending: This Should Have Been the Best Intersection of Crypto and AI
You might wonder, what happened to FTX's equity in Anthropic?
The outcome is straightforward. After FTX's bankruptcy, all assets, including the Anthropic equity, were handled by the FTX bankruptcy management team. In February 2024, the court approved the team's request to sell these shares. In March and June of the same year, the team sold 29.5 million shares for $884 million and 15 million shares for $450 million, respectively, totaling over $1.3 billion in sales.
The buyers of these shares were primarily ATIC Third International Investment from Abu Dhabi and traditional financial institutions from Wall Street, such as Jane Street and Fidelity. In other words, no companies from the crypto circle got a share of the pie.
Whether these shares were deliberately sold at a low price or if there was利益输送 (benefit transfer) under the guise of bankruptcy liquidation is no longer important to the crypto industry.
This should have been the best intersection of Crypto and AI. In another timeline, whether these shares were in the hands of SBF or CZ, if leading companies in the crypto world had some influence in the development of the most successful AI company, there could have been more innovative attempts around Crypto + AI, leading to unexpected fruits.
The one slapping his thigh in regret isn't just CZ.
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