Coinbase Stock Price Plummets 30% Year-to-Date, Why Isn't Wall Street Pessimistic?

Foresight NewsPublished on 2026-07-16Last updated on 2026-07-16

Abstract

Coinbase's stock has fallen nearly 30% year-to-date, yet Wall Street analysts like William Blair maintain an 'Outperform' rating. Despite lowering revenue and EBITDA forecasts for 2026/2027, their core view is that negative factors are already priced in. Key structural differences from the 2022 cycle—such as Bitcoin ETF adoption, institutional inflows, and clearer regulation—provide a better foundation. Analysts highlight Coinbase's diversification beyond spot trading, pointing to growth from its Base layer-2 network and a retail derivatives business generating over $200 million in annualized revenue. Technically, John Bollinger notes Bitcoin is forming a potential 'W' bottom pattern on daily charts, which could signal a major trend reversal if completed. On-chain data from Glassnode shows panic selling by long-term holders may have peaked, though sustained spot market buying is still needed to confirm a true bottom. While short-term price pressures remain, the consensus is that the current cycle's lows are being established, setting the stage for a potential recovery, with Coinbase's transaction volume expected to rebound over 30% in 2027 after a projected 44% drop this year.

Written by:Jose Antonio Lanz

Compiled by:Chopper,Foresight News

Profit expectations were lowered, yet the stock price rose. Yesterday, shares of both Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) increased by approximately 3-4%. This followed a report from Chicago-based investment bank William Blair, which lowered revenue and profit expectations for Coinbase but maintained its "Outperform" rating.

William Blair's core thesis is that all negative news has already been priced into the stock, and investors should continue to hold Coinbase.

The firm lowered its revenue forecast for Coinbase by 12% for 2026 and 13% for 2027; it also substantially cut its adjusted EBITDA expectations for both years by 34%. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury stated that the company's profits will likely bottom out in the second half of 2026 and recover in 2027. They advise investors to continue holding Coinbase as spot cryptocurrency trading volumes approach a bottom in sync with Bitcoin.

William Blair forecasts that Coinbase's total annual trading volume will drop by about 44% to $669 billion; trading volume is expected to rebound by over 32% in 2027.

The institution believes there are structural differences between this cycle and the one in 2022. Favorable conditions that did not exist four years ago are now in place, including the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, sustained institutional capital inflows, and a more mature regulatory framework for the industry.

The report is also bullish on Coinbase's Ethereum layer-2 network Base, seeing it as a potential core profit growth driver, with derivatives and prediction markets further broadening revenue sources, making the business less reliant solely on spot trading. The retail derivatives business alone generated over $200 million in annualized revenue in the first quarter.

Not all institutions are optimistic about COIN's short-term performance. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley lowered his COIN price target from $170 to $155, maintaining a Neutral rating. He noted that the key focus for Q2 is prediction markets and perpetual contracts, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market scale, and cautioned that the market will closely watch the potential competitive impact from perpetual contracts in Q3.

Year-to-date, COIN's stock price has fallen nearly 30%, while Bitcoin has declined about 26%. Circle went public on the NYSE in June 2025 at a $31 IPO price, and its stock has retreated 20% since the beginning of the year.

"W" Bottom Pattern Forming: John Bollinger Predicts Bitcoin Poised for Significant Rally

Optimistic signals are also emerging on the technical front. John Bollinger, the creator of the globally used Bollinger Bands volatility indicator and a veteran technical analyst, has been consistently highlighting since early July that Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a key bottoming pattern.

On July 2nd, Bollinger posted on social platform X, pointing out that the chart is forming a "W" double bottom reversal structure: two lows form a range, with a bounce in the middle; once the price breaks above the resistance level between the two lows, an uptrend is formally established.

He described the current movement as a standard fractal structure, with a smaller W bottom nested within the larger pattern, visible even on the weekly chart. However, he also objectively noted uncertainty: this bear market has seen multiple bullish patterns that were ultimately broken by selling pressure.

In his latest update, Bollinger stated that if this W bottom completes its formation, it will be viewed as a clear signal of trend reversal, marking his most explicit bullish signal to date, suggesting the move is more than just a short-term bounce.

Earlier this year, Bollinger disclosed that his investment vehicle holds a long Bitcoin position, aligning his view with his holdings. From a broader technical trend perspective, Bitcoin's overall bearish structure hasn't been reversed yet, but downside momentum is continually weakening.

Has Bitcoin's Bottom Already Formed?

The latest weekly research report from on-chain data firm Glassnode shows that the primary source of selling pressure throughout the year — panic selling by long-term holders — peaked and began declining two weeks ago. This metric, which filters out intra-chain transfer noise to measure the actual selling volume by long-term holders, shows a downturn for the first time in this cycle.

The price low in June attracted significant buying, with Glassnode detecting collective accumulation across wallets of various sizes. Bitcoin's negative correlation with the US Dollar Index has deepened further, while its correlation with US stocks continues to weaken. The sensitivity of Bitcoin's price to positive macroeconomic news has returned: on Tuesday, after disappointing inflation data, Bitcoin's gains far outpaced those of major US stock indices.

For on-chain analysts and Wall Street institutions, a core question remains: sustained buying momentum has not yet emerged in the Bitcoin spot market, insufficient to confirm a reversal.

While derivative positions are being unwound, long-term selling pressure is gradually easing, and the panic premium in the options market is narrowing, incremental capital has not entered the market on a large scale. William Blair judges the market inflection point to be in 2027, predicting Coinbase's trading volume will rebound by 32% next year after a 44% plunge this year.

Bitwise: RWA and Prediction Markets Continue to Gain Momentum, Crypto is Bottoming Out

Bitwise's Q2 2026 report highlights a challenging crypto market. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index fell 15.4%, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record $4.9 billion in quarterly outflows as Bitcoin dropped below $60,000. Overall sentiment is described as one of the worst in eight years. Despite the downturn, key sectors show resilience and growth. Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization reached a record $33 billion, up 45% year-to-date. Prediction markets also hit new highs, with open interest at $1.8 billion and quarterly volume hitting $43 billion, driven partly by political events. Crypto equities outperformed, with the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index rising 30.6%, largely fueled by AI-related Bitcoin miners. These stocks exhibited low correlation with other major asset classes. Major DeFi protocols like Aave demonstrated strong revenue generation, with the top ten crypto applications collectively earning $5.9 billion over the past year. The report notes that while prices and on-chain activity are down from peaks, fundamental metrics like stablecoin supply (~$300B) and Ethereum transaction activity are significantly higher than at the 2022 bear market bottom. Key Q3 factors include the fate of the CLARITY Act, final rules for the GENIUS stablecoin act, and policy signals from the new Fed Chair. The conclusion is that the industry is building a stronger foundation—with greater adoption, institutional involvement, and real utility—even at depressed prices, setting the stage for the next cycle.

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Bitcoin Shifts to Building a Bottom, with Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders Significantly Easing

Bitcoin is transitioning into a basing phase, with significant selling pressure from long-term holders showing signs of easing. The market is testing overhead resistance, with Bitcoin responding more positively to favorable macro data like soft inflation reports than major equity indices. Its correlation with stocks is weakening while its inverse relationship with the US dollar strengthens, indicating a shift in primary drivers towards liquidity factors rather than risk sentiment. On-chain analysis reveals that long-term holder profit-taking has largely dried up, and the wave of capitulation selling from this cohort has peaked and begun to recede. Buyers successfully absorbed selling pressure at the June lows. Bitcoin currently trades between the network's average realized price (a support floor) and the short-term holder cost basis near $69k, which will be a key resistance level. A breakout above this level is needed to signal a more sustained recovery. In derivatives markets, traders are unwinding bearish bets, with put/call ratios falling and crash protection premiums declining. However, this futures and options positioning adjustment has not been accompanied by significant spot buying. US spot ETF outflows have slowed but not reversed. Volatility has compressed to low levels. In summary, the foundations for a bottom are forming: long-term holder selling is subsiding, demand absorbed the recent low, and the market is reacting to positive catalysts. However, confirmation is still lacking, requiring a spot-driven breakout and hold above the short-term holder cost basis around $69k.

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