Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year cycle is still playing out, but the forces behind it have shifted away from the halving toward politics and liquidity, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.
Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that the idea of the four-year cycle being “broken” misses the point. In his view, the cycle remains intact, but it is no longer dictated by Bitcoin (BTC)’s programmed supply cuts. Instead, it is increasingly shaped by US election timelines, central bank policy and the flow of capital into risk assets.
Thielen pointed to historical market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, all of which occurred in the fourth quarter. Those peaks, he said, align more closely with presidential election cycles and broader political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have shifted throughout the calendar over the years.
“There's this uncertainty that the sitting president's party is going to lose a lot of seats. I think that's also the odds now that Trump would lose or Republicans would lose a lot of seats in the House, and therefore, maybe he's not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore,” he said.
Related: Bitcoin 'up year' is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead
Fed rate cut fails to boost Bitcoin
The comments come as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. While rate cuts have historically supported risk assets, Thielen noted that the current environment is different. Institutional investors, now the dominant force in crypto markets, are more cautious, especially as policy signals from the Fed remain mixed and liquidity conditions tighten.
Furthermore, capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared with last year, reducing the upside pressure needed to sustain a strong breakout. Without a clear pickup in liquidity, Thielen expects Bitcoin to remain in a consolidation phase rather than enter a new parabolic rally.
The shift also has implications for how investors think about timing. Rather than anchoring expectations to the halving, Thielen said market participants should watch political catalysts such as US elections, fiscal policy debates and shifts in monetary conditions.
Related: Bitcoin's 4-year cycle may not be dead after all: Glassnode
Arthur Hayes: Four-year crypto cycle is dead
In October, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that the four-year crypto cycle is over, but not because of fading institutional interest or changes to Bitcoin’s halving schedule. He said traders relying on historical timing models to call the end of the current bull market are likely to be wrong, as those patterns no longer reflect how markets move.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin cycles have always been driven by global liquidity, not by arbitrary four-year timelines. Past bull markets ended when monetary conditions tightened, particularly when US dollar and Chinese yuan liquidity slowed. The halving, he said, has been overstated as a causal factor rather than a coincidental one.
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