[Ключевая интерпретация] Долгосрочные инвесторы BTC получили 50% прибыли в течение двух дней подряд и сбежали, а eth был близок к позиции изменения

HTX NewsPublished on 2022-09-01Last updated on 2022-09-01

Abstract

Основные силы, получившие прибыль, массово бежали, и ожидается, что краткосрочный разрыв BTC будет большим, или ETH может быть связан вниз.

1. Вторая горизонтальная корректировка BTC

Боковая корректировка BTC показывает, что раннее предупреждение о снижении не было снято, и BTC все еще ищет тенденцию к прорыву вниз после ускорения падения цены. В настоящее время BTC находится на втором этапе горизонтальной операции. До этого 19 августа и 26 августа цена демонстрировала тенденцию ускоренного отступления. В настоящее время торговый энтузиазм инвесторов немного возрос, и появились признаки постоянного и частого усиления импульса в объеме торгов. Как только ценовая платформа US $20000 упадет, может быть трудно предсказать низшую точку.

2. Расчистка прибыли долгосрочных инвесторов

Если судить по показателям торговой прибыли долгосрочных инвесторов, то индекс SOPR достиг недавнего максимума 1,532 и 1,395 28 августа и 29 августа соответственно, что указывает на наличие большого пространства для торговой прибыли долгосрочных инвесторов. Другими словами, рынок находится в стадии бегства долгосрочных инвесторов от прибыли, что делает цену BTC, которая находилась в состоянии падения, шаткой. С точки зрения пространства торговой прибыли долгосрочных инвесторов, средняя прибыль после двух последовательных торговых дней прибыльной торговли приближается к 50%.

3. Увеличение количества неподтвержденных транзакций

С 23 августа количество неподтвержденных сделок с BTC достигло пикового уровня, что является самым высоким значением почти за три месяца. При дальнейшем падении цены закрытия BTC 26 августа количество неподтвержденных сделок существенно не уменьшилось. С точки зрения транзакционных издержек, большинство из них очень низкие, что означает, что объем транзакций мелких и средних инвесторов велик и способствует наибольшему количеству неподтвержденных транзакций. В процессе сокращения неподтвержденных сделок ожидается, что цена BTC все еще может легко упасть ниже текущей ценовой платформы, и ожидание корректировки все еще находится на высоком уровне.

4. Пространство для отскока Eth ограничено

Во время сокращения объема торгов eth, у цены не так много пространства для отскока на стадии падения, и она все еще работает под средним рельсом линии Брина. Поэтому ожидается, что у цены ETH еще есть возможность для дальнейшего падения. В настоящее время ETH еще раз подтвердил разворотную тенденцию вершины "голова и плечи", а линия шеи этой формы находится около $1500. Ожидается, что после дальнейшего падения ниже $1500 темпы падения, вероятно, ускорятся.

5. Процентная ставка финансирования Eth восстановилась

Процентная ставка финансирования eth долгое время оставалась выше 0, достигая 0,012-0,024 в течение последних четырех месяцев. Начиная с 22 августа, процентная ставка финансирования начала значительно снижаться, достигнув минимального значения 0,026.

С увеличением масштабов покупки эт, процентная ставка финансирования продолжала расти. В настоящее время процентная ставка финансирования близка к 0, поэтому считается, что eth, возможно, закончила свою корректировку.

Далее, вероятность дальнейшего падения eth увеличивается. Финансовая процентная ставка отскочила до отметки около 0, что означает, что давление продаж может сформироваться снова. Финансовая процентная ставка отскочила на стадии горизонтальной работы цены, что означает, что цене ETH сложнее отскочить после увеличения стоимости длинной покупки. С точки зрения краткосрочной поддержки, мы можем обратить внимание на уровень USD 1347, соответствующий снижению линии brin eth.

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