Nhu cầu Bitcoin giảm nhanh nhất kể từ sau sự sụp đổ của LUNA: Dữ liệu

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-05Last updated on 2026-06-05

Abstract

Dữ liệu on-chain cho thấy tổng nhu cầu đối với Bitcoin (bao gồm cả thị trường giao ngay và phái sinh) đã giảm mạnh trong tháng qua. Mức thay đổi 30 ngày hiện ở mức âm 501.000 BTC, tốc độ co lại nhanh nhất kể từ sau sự kiện sụp đổ Terra/LUNA vào tháng 5/2022. Trong đợt tăng giá trước đó (tháng 4 đến đầu tháng 5), đà tăng chủ yếu được thúc đẩy bởi nhu cầu từ thị trường phái sinh, trong khi nhu cầu giao ngay thực tế lại giảm. Các đợt tăng trưởng bền vững trước đây thường cần sự đồng thời tăng trưởng ở cả hai khu vực. Sự đảo chiều mạnh gần đây khiến giá Bitcoin đã giảm xuống mức thấp nhất kể từ tháng 2, quanh 63.200 USD. Cần theo dõi sát diễn biến thị trường để đánh giá liệu dòng vốn có tiếp tục chảy ra với tốc độ tương tự thời kỳ hậu Terra/LUNA hay không.

Dữ liệu on-chain cho thấy tổng nhu cầu đối với Bitcoin đã co lại đáng kể trong tháng qua, đạt tốc độ tương đương với thời kỳ sụp đổ LUNA.

Nhu Cầu Bitcoin Spot & Futures Đã Thu Hẹp Gần Đây

Như đã được Julio Moreno, trưởng bộ phận nghiên cứu CryptoQuant chỉ ra trong một bài đăng trên X, nhu cầu Bitcoin gần đây đã co lại với tốc độ mạnh. "Nhu cầu" ở đây đề cập đến tổng lượng Bitcoin chảy vào thị trường giao ngay (spot) và thị trường tương lai (futures).

Dưới đây là biểu đồ được Moreno chia sẻ cho thấy sự thay đổi 30 ngày của nhu cầu này trong vài năm qua.

Giá trị của chỉ số dường như đã giảm mạnh trong những ngày gần đây | Nguồn: @jjcmoreno trên X

Như được hiển thị trên biểu đồ, tổng nhu cầu đối với Bitcoin đã tăng lên cùng với đợt tăng giá xảy ra trong suốt tháng Tư và nửa đầu tháng Năm. Thú vị là, như mã màu của đường cong cho thấy, sự gia tăng này là do nhu cầu chảy vào thị trường phái sinh; nhu cầu giao ngay thực tế đã co lại trong đợt tăng giá này.

Trước đây, các đợt tăng giá thường chỉ bền vững khi nhu cầu đồng thời tăng lên trên cả thị trường giao ngay và thị trường tương lai. Từ biểu đồ, rõ ràng là cả các đợt tăng giá trong năm 2024 và đợt tăng trong năm 2025 đều có sự thiết lập màu xanh lá cây này. Vì đợt phục hồi gần đây chỉ được thúc đẩy bởi hoạt động đầu cơ, có lẽ không có gì ngạc nhiên khi nó không thể kéo dài, và một sự đảo chiều mạnh mẽ đã theo sau trên thị trường.

Sự thay đổi hướng gió trong lĩnh vực Bitcoin không chỉ liên quan đến việc tổng nhu cầu chuyển sang âm, mà còn dẫn đến sự đảo chiều trong hướng đi của hoạt động đầu cơ, khiến nó phù hợp với xu hướng co lại của thị trường giao ngay. Hiện tại, mức thay đổi 30 ngày trong tổng nhu cầu đang ở mức âm 501.000 BTC, đây là mức thấp nhất mà chỉ số này đạt được kể từ tháng 5 năm 2022. "Nhu cầu Bitcoin đang co lại với tốc độ tương đương với thời kỳ sau sự sụp đổ của Terra/Luna," nhà phân tích lưu ý.

Sự sụp đổ của Terra/LUNA là một sự kiện bạo lực xảy ra trong thị trường giá xuống năm 2022. Trong sự kiện này, UST, một stablecoin thuật toán, đã mất chốt neo 1 đô la và khiến hệ sinh thái Terra mất ổn định và rơi vào vòng xoáy tử thần, cuối cùng kích hoạt sự sụp đổ trong toàn bộ lĩnh vực rộng hơn.

Khi đó, sự co lại trong nhu cầu giao ngay và tương lai đã đạt mốc -559.000 BTC. Giá trị hiện tại của chỉ báo vẫn chưa đến mức đó, nhưng nếu thị trường tiếp tục theo quỹ đạo này, có thể nhu cầu sẽ chảy ra khỏi thị trường với tốc độ tương tự. Tuy nhiên, vẫn còn phải xem lĩnh vực Bitcoin sẽ phát triển như thế nào trong tương lai gần.

Giá BTC

Sau cú lao dốc giá, Bitcoin đã giảm xuống mức 63.200 đô la, mức thấp nhất mà tài sản này đạt được kể từ tháng Hai.

Có vẻ như giá của đồng tiền này đã giảm gần đây | Nguồn: BTCUSDT trên TradingView

Related Questions

QDữ liệu on-chain cho thấy nhu cầu tổng hợp đối với Bitcoin đã giảm với tốc độ như thế nào trong tháng qua?

ADữ liệu on-chain cho thấy nhu cầu tổng hợp (bao gồm cả thị trường giao ngay và phái sinh) đối với Bitcoin đã giảm mạnh trong tháng qua, với mức thay đổi 30 ngày đạt giá trị âm 501,000 BTC. Đây là tốc độ thu hẹp nhanh nhất kể từ sau sự kiện sụp đổ Terra/LUNA vào tháng 5 năm 2022.

QTheo biểu đồ được chia sẻ, đợt tăng giá vào tháng 4 và nửa đầu tháng 5 chủ yếu được thúc đẩy bởi loại nhu cầu nào?

ATheo biểu đồ, đợt tăng giá vào tháng 4 và nửa đầu tháng 5 chủ yếu được thúc đẩy bởi nhu cầu chảy vào thị trường phái sinh (derivatives). Trong khi đó, nhu cầu từ thị trường giao ngay (spot) thực tế lại giảm trong đợt tăng giá này.

QTại sao bài viết cho rằng đợt phục hồi gần đây của Bitcoin không thể kéo dài?

ABài viết cho rằng đợt phục hồi gần đây của Bitcoin không thể kéo dài vì nó chỉ được thúc đẩy bởi hoạt động đầu cơ (speculative activity) trên thị trường phái sinh, trong khi nhu cầu thị trường giao ngay lại giảm. Theo quan sát trong quá khứ, các đợt tăng giá bền vững thường cần có sự gia tăng đồng thời của nhu cầu ở cả thị trường giao ngay và phái sinh.

QMức thu hẹp nhu cầu hiện tại của Bitcoin (-501,000 BTC) so với thời kỳ sau sự kiện Terra/LUNA sụp đổ như thế nào?

AMức thu hẹp nhu cầu hiện tại của Bitcoin là -501,000 BTC, thấp nhất kể từ tháng 5/2022, gần bằng với tốc độ thu hẹp sau sự kiện Terra/LUNA sụp đổ. Vào thời điểm đó (tháng 5/2022), mức thu hẹp nhu cầu đã đạt -559,000 BTC. Mức hiện tại vẫn chưa bằng nhưng đang ở tốc độ tương đương.

QGiá Bitcoin hiện tại đang ở mức nào theo bài viết?

ATheo bài viết, sau đợt giảm giá, Bitcoin đã giảm xuống mức 63,200 USD. Đây là mức giá thấp nhất của tài sản này kể từ tháng Hai.

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April 2019: The initial release of the Terra blockchain, initiating its journey into the broader cryptocurrency landscape. 2021: Terra experiences remarkable growth as its total value locked (TVL) reaches new heights, positioning it as a dominant player in decentralized finance (DeFi). May 2022: A turbulent period arises as the Terra blockchain is temporarily halted following the collapse of UST and LUNA, leading to a significant impact on market perception and capitalization. January 2024: Terraform Labs files for bankruptcy, marking another critical event in the project's history, sparking discussions on the sustainability and future of the ecosystem. Key Components of the Terra Ecosystem A variety of features contribute to the unique functionality of the Terra Ecosystem: Core Functionality The Terra Ecosystem includes essential functionalities such as managing transaction fees, monitoring price fluctuations, and maintaining historical balances of transactions, all of which are crucial for ensuring user experience and operational integrity. Applications One of the flagship features of the Terra Ecosystem is its diverse array of applications. This includes: Anchor Protocol: A money market protocol that provides high stablecoin yields and tokenized stakes for users seeking to maximize returns on their investments. Mirroring Technology: Enabling users to create assets that mirror real-world assets and trades, allowing for broader use cases and applications. Chai: A payment platform designed to facilitate everyday transactions using Terra's stablecoin technology. Swaps and Exchanges The ecosystem provides functionality for seamless asset exchanges. Notable features include native swapping capabilities and platforms such as Terraswap, allowing users to exchange Terra assets efficiently while benefiting from competitive rates. Governance Governance plays a critical role in the decentralized nature of the Terra Ecosystem. Token holders use their LUNA tokens to propose changes or vote on proposals that affect the network, ensuring collective decision-making and community involvement in the ecosystem's evolution. Notable Projects in the Terra Ecosystem Beyond the core functionalities, the Terra Ecosystem is also home to notable projects that further augment its capabilities: Terraswap: This decentralized exchange (DEX) emerged to facilitate easy swapping of Terra assets, thus promoting a vibrant trading environment within the ecosystem. Astroport: Another DEX known for its high total value locked, Astroport enhances trading opportunities and liquidity provision for users. Loop Markets: This integrated exchange hub offers users a range of trading tools and services, significantly contributing to the user experience across the Terra platform. Conclusion The Terra Ecosystem stands as a significant player within the blockchain and cryptocurrency domains, aiming to create a stable and scalable financial platform designed for widespread cryptocurrency adoption. Although the ecosystem faced dramatic challenges, notably the collapse of its stablecoin UST and the LUNA token, it continues to adapt and evolve in the face of adversity. As the project navigates its future, it remains committed to its foundational vision of building practical products accessible to a broader audience, thereby reinforcing the potential of decentralized finance. The Terra Ecosystem, with its robust features and innovative approach, holds promise as it seeks to redefine the landscape of digital currency use, remaining a focal point for enthusiasts and investors alike in the ongoing evolution of blockchain technology.

1.3k Total ViewsPublished 2024.12.17Updated 2024.12.17

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