数据显示：比特币需求正以LUNA崩盘以来最快速度下滑

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-05Last updated on 2026-06-05

Abstract

数据显示，比特币市场总需求（包括现货和期货）在过去一个月大幅萎缩，其收缩速度已与2022年LUNA崩盘后的时期相当。研究指出，尽管比特币价格在4月至5月中旬的上涨期间总需求有所增加，但这主要由衍生品市场的投机需求推动，现货需求实际上在下降。历史表明，只有当现货与期货需求同时增长时，价格上涨才可持续。近期，总需求的30日变化已转为负值，降至-50.1万BTC，为2022年5月以来的最低水平，市场趋势已转为现货与期货需求双双收缩。目前比特币价格已跌至63,200美元左右，为2月以来的最低点。若市场延续当前轨迹，资金流出速度可能进一步接近LUNA崩盘后的水平。

链上数据显示，过去一个月比特币的总需求已显著收缩，下降速度堪比LUNA崩盘时期。

比特币现货与期货需求近期萎缩

CryptoQuant研究主管Julio Moreno在X平台发帖指出，比特币需求近期正以惊人的速度收缩。这里的“需求”指的是流入现货和期货市场的比特币总量。

以下是Moreno分享的图表，显示了近几年该需求的30天变化情况。

该指标数值在最近几天似乎已大幅下降 | 来源：@jjcmoreno on X

如图所示，比特币的总需求随着四月及五月上半月的价格上涨而上升。有趣的是，正如曲线颜色所暗示的，这种增长是由于需求流入了衍生品市场；而现货需求在此次上涨期间实际上是收缩的。

过去，价格上涨通常只有在现货和期货市场需求同时增长时才具有可持续性。从图表中可以明显看出，2024年的牛市反弹和2025年的上涨都伴随着这种“绿色”设置。由于近期的复苏上涨仅由投机活动推动，其无法持续也就不足为奇了，随后市场出现了急剧逆转。

比特币领域的风向转变不仅导致总需求转为负值，还使得投机活动的方向发生了转变，与现货市场的收缩趋势保持一致。目前，总需求的30天变化为-501,000 BTC，这是该指标自2022年5月以来的最低值。“比特币需求的收缩速度堪比Terra/Luna崩盘后的时期，”分析师指出。

Terra/LUNA崩盘是发生在2022年熊市期间的一次剧烈事件。事件中，算法稳定币UST失去了与1美元的挂钩，导致Terra生态系统陷入死亡螺旋并最终崩溃，进而引发了整个行业的暴跌。

当时，现货和期货需求的收缩达到了-559,000 BTC的峰值。目前该指标尚未达到该水平，但如果市场继续沿着这一轨迹发展，需求可能会以类似的速度流出市场。不过，比特币领域在不久的将来将如何发展，仍有待观察。

BTC价格

价格暴跌之后，比特币已跌至63,200美元水平，这是该资产自二月以来的最低点。

看来该币种价格近期一直在下跌 | 来源：TradingView上的BTCUSDT

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