特朗普:同意与伊朗新领导层对话,伊朗:不谈

华尔街见闻Published on 2026-03-02Last updated on 2026-03-02

Abstract

“委内瑞拉模式”结局是选项之一?

美国总统特朗普表示愿意与伊朗新领导层对话,并提出包括“委内瑞拉模式”在内的多种政治更迭设想。但伊朗强硬回应:不谈。

据新华社最新报道,美国总统特朗普3月1日表示,伊朗新领导层希望与他对话,他也同意与伊朗方面对话。

“他们想谈谈,我也同意谈,所以我会和他们谈。”

当被问及对话何时进行时,特朗普回答:“我不能告诉你。”他说,最近几周参与谈判的一些伊朗人已经身亡,“他们本可以达成协议,他们本该早点这么做的,他们耍小聪明了”。

特朗普这一表态发生在美以对伊朗发动军事打击、伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇害之后,或表明中东局势在剧烈动荡中出现新的政治博弈空间。新华社提及,伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬3月1日说,伊朗临时领导委员会当天开始工作,直至选举出新的最高领袖。

不过对于特朗普的“谈判邀约”,央视新闻最新报道显示,伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书阿里·拉里贾尼当地时间3月2日表示,不会与美国进行谈判。

他在稍早前的一篇帖子中写道:“特朗普用他的‘虚假希望’在伊朗制造了混乱,现在又担心美军伤亡会进一步增加。”

特朗普提及“委内瑞拉模式”

特朗普日前在接受媒体采访时,提出了一个备受关注的选项——“委内瑞拉模式”。他表示,在委内瑞拉的行动中,美国控制了最高领导人,而大部分政府架构得以保留,并愿意与美国合作。

据央视新闻报道,今年1月3日,美国总统特朗普宣布美军在委内瑞拉发动突袭行动,抓走委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子,并称两人将赴纽约面临刑事指控;他同时宣称美国将“暂时运行”委内瑞拉。

特朗普说:

“我们在委内瑞拉所做的,我认为是完美的,完美的场景,”

报道称,特朗普暗示这种模式可以复制到伊朗,即寻找一个更愿意与美国合作的领导层。

然而,这一设想面临巨大挑战。伊朗拥有庞大的军事力量和复杂的社会结构,且维持着相关核计划。特朗普的顾问曾警告,两国在文化和历史上的巨大差异,使得在伊朗复制委内瑞拉战略几乎不可能。

与此同时,特朗普的表态本身也充满矛盾性。他给出了数种并不完全一致的设想,甚至未明确是“延续既有权力结构”还是“推翻旧结构”。

在特朗普反复提及他所称的“委内瑞拉经验”之际,特朗普又声称,他希望伊朗精锐武装力量——包括伊斯兰革命卫队中“强硬的军官”——把武器交给伊朗民众。他说:“如果你想想,他们其实会向人民投降。”

在“由谁来领导伊朗”的问题上,特朗普称自己有“三个非常好的选择”,但拒绝点名:“我现在不会透露。先把事情办完。”

媒体报道同时提到,伊朗方面当天早些时候表示,将由一个临时委员会运转国家直至最高领袖继任者产生;报道点到伊朗最高国家安全官员阿里·拉里贾尼的表态,并称拉里贾尼曾负责与美国谈判核协议且在今年1月遭特朗普政府制裁。特朗普未回答自己是否认为拉里贾尼可能领导伊朗政府。

军事行动将持续 弹药储备引关注

关于冲突的持续时间,特朗普的表态与此前有所不同。他表示,美以将继续军事行动,直到达成所有目标。

据央视新闻报道,美国总统特朗普当地时间3月1日发表视频讲话称,美国和以色列将继续对伊朗的军事行动,直到达成所有目标。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐当天表示,伊朗将决定这场美以强加的侵略战争何时以及如何结束。

此前特朗普的说法是:对伊朗军事行动或持续约4周。

特朗普在谈到维持战斗强度时说:

“这不会很困难……我们有大量的弹药。你知道,我们在世界各地的不同国家都储存了弹药。”

尽管特朗普对弹药储备充满信心,但五角大楼此前曾表达担忧,认为冲突可能会进一步消耗战略储备。在美军已有数人阵亡的背景下,特朗普承认“我们预计会有伤亡”,并表示根据预测,伤亡人数可能会更高。

伊朗的“马赛克防御”

面对美以的持续打击,伊朗并未示弱。

据央视新闻,伊朗外长阿拉格齐1日在社交媒体发文说,伊朗过去20年一直在研究美军的失败案例,美以对伊朗首都德黑兰的轰炸不会影响伊朗的战争能力。

阿拉格齐称,伊朗去中心化、分散式的“马赛克防御”体系使伊朗能够决定战争何时以及如何结束。

这表明伊朗已为长期冲突做好准备。

目前,伊朗临时领导委员会已开始工作,直至选举出新的最高领袖。特朗普表示,如果新领导层表现出务实合作的态度,他愿意解除对伊朗的制裁。然而,在冲突仍在持续、双方立场依然对立的情况下,任何实质性的对话与妥协都面临重重阻碍。

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