How Ethereum’s 20% MVRV gap could fuel ETH’s next breakout

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-11-01Last updated on 2025-11-01

Key Takeaways

Why does ETH MVRV divergence matter?

The MVRV divergence shows where conviction lies. ETH stakers are sitting on higher unrealized gains, incentivizing long-term positioning.

What does the shift toward staking mean for Ethereum?

With nearly 30% of supply locked, Ethereum appears to be transitioning from a trading phase into an accumulation cycle.

Stability in a choppy market is the real test of strength.

Notably, Ethereum [ETH] has shown exactly that. Since the crash, it’s tested the $3,680 support four times, each time bouncing roughly 17%. In essence, investor conviction is holding firm as buyers stay defensive.

CryptoQuant data adds context to this strength. Since July, a clear gap has opened in ETH’s MVRV ratio between stakers and the circulating supply. Before that date, both sat around 1.5, showing about 50% unrealized gains.

Ethereum MVRV

Source: CryptoQuant

However, since then, the two groups have clearly started to diverge.

As of press time, the MVRV for circulating ETH stands at 1.5, while staked ETH sits at 1.7. This suggests that stakers are sitting on roughly 20% more unrealized profit, forming a “healthy” 10-20% gap between the two.

From a market view, it shows where real conviction sits. 

Staked ETH holders are locking in for long-term upside, while liquid tokens face higher profit-taking risk. Structurally, this makes staking (with nearly 70% in unrealized gains) a standout play in Ethereum’s current cycle.

ETH’s shrinking profits point to a market reset

As mentioned above, Ethereum’s circulating supply MVRV sat at 1.5.

However, that’s a clear drop from the late-August peak of 1.85, when ETH hit its $4,900 all-time high. Simply put, MVRV cooling-off shows around 35% of unrealized gains have been flushed out as STHs took profits.

This compression in profit margins signals that the market is entering a cooling phase. Historically, MVRV levels below 1.0 have marked solid accumulation zones, showing that ETH is slowly resetting for its next leg.

ETH

Source: CryptoQuant

However, tying this back to the earlier analysis, there’s more to the story.

Shrinking profits and rising staking conviction are tightening the MVRV spread between staked and circulating ETH. With over 36 million ETH locked, this could mark the early stage of a broader structural rotation.

Simply put, Ethereum looks to be rotating from a trading phase into an accumulation cycle. As staking builds, ETH’s foundation is getting stronger, setting up for a breakout driven by real conviction, not just hype.

Next:
Share

Related Reads

τ Scaling: Huawei's New Growth Engine Designed for the Post-Moore Era

**Tau Scaling: Huawei's New Growth Engine for the Post-Moore Era** For 60 years, progress in semiconductors was driven by Moore's Law – making transistors smaller, denser, and cheaper. This path has now stalled due to plummeting returns below 7nm, astronomical lithography costs, and rising per-transistor expenses. After six years and testing 381 production chips, Huawei’s semiconductor team proposes a fundamental shift: **stop competing on size, start competing on time**. This is the core of their "τ (Tau) Scaling" theory. It treats *time* as the key optimization metric, compressing characteristic delays (τ) across all levels – from transistor switching (picoseconds) to data center tasks (seconds), spanning 12 orders of magnitude. **What is τ Scaling?** It holistically minimizes delay/time constants (τ) across four layers: transistors (switching speed), circuits (signal delay), chips (compute/memory access), and systems (end-to-end communication). The goal is to align optimization from process and circuit design to architecture and systems using this unified metric. **Mobile Application: LogicFolding** Without advancing the process node, this technique vertically stacks chips using ultra-precision hybrid bonding, distributing critical paths across layers ("stacking floors"). Results include a 55% transistor density increase, 41% better energy efficiency, over 40% higher SRAM frequency, and a roadmap targeting 4GHz by 2029. **AI Data Center Application: Full-Link Latency Compression** With 80% of AI cluster energy and 70% cost spent on data movement, the focus is slashing communication time. Key innovations include: 1. **Unified Bus:** Cuts multi-layer protocols, reducing remote access latency from microseconds to ~100 nanoseconds – 500x faster. 2. **Hi-ONE Optical Interconnect:** Replaces copper with fiber, enabling 8Tb/s per module and scaling distances from 1m to 100m for 10,000-chip clusters. 3. **3D Folding:** Solves the "interface bottleneck" of 2.5D packaging by vertically integrating memory, power, and optical I/O alongside compute, predicting over 100x integration density gain by 2035. **Re-fusion of Logic and Memory** The AI era, where data movement is more critical than computation, demands tight 3D integration of logic and memory, shifting industry influence towards memory and advanced packaging. **Remaining Challenges** include adapting EDA tools for 3D design, optimizing wafer-to-wafer process variation and vertical interconnect losses, and establishing new energy efficiency and benchmarking standards. **Conclusion:** The era of scaling physical dimensions is over. The era of scaling time has begun. By leveraging 3D stacking, system architecture, and interconnect optimization—rather than solely chasing advanced lithography—performance and efficiency can continue to advance. This is poised to be the semiconductor industry's core roadmap for the next decade.

marsbit8m ago

τ Scaling: Huawei's New Growth Engine Designed for the Post-Moore Era

marsbit8m ago

NodeStrategy: The First Ordinals DAT Project, Bringing the Strategy Treasury Narrative to NFTs

**Summary: The Fundamental Flaws of NodeStrategy, the 'First Ordinals DAT'** NodeStrategy presents itself as the first Ordinals Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) on Bitcoin. Its model mirrors MicroStrategy's treasury narrative but for NFTs, specifically targeting the NodeMonkes collection (not officially affiliated). The project's core mechanism is a four-step flywheel: a 10% fee on all trades (90% to treasury, 10% to radFi/Bound marketplace) is used to buy NodeMonkes. These NFTs are then listed for sale on Satflow, with 100% of the sale proceeds used to buy back and burn the project's token, NODESTRAT, aiming to create a perpetual value cycle. However, the design contains critical, self-defeating flaws: 1. **Platform Lock-In:** As a Bitcoin Rune, NODESTRAT lacks smart contract functionality and cannot natively enforce the 10% fee. The fee can only be collected on the radFi/Bound marketplace itself. This makes the entire flywheel dependent on a single platform. If liquidity moves elsewhere, fee revenue drops to zero, halting the mechanism. 2. **Self-Suffocating Economics:** The 10% fee acts both as the flywheel's fuel and a major drag on demand. A buy/sell roundtrip incurs a 20% cost, creating a massive hurdle for traders. This strangles the very trading volume needed to generate fees. 3. **Ineffective Value Support:** The flywheel is starved. Low daily volume (~$9K) generates minimal fees for NFT purchases. The NFT "ladder" sales are slow and unpredictable (only 39 total sold), meaning buybacks are infrequent. While 30.77% of the supply has been burned, this supply reduction cannot lift price without corresponding demand, which is suppressed by the high transaction tax. 4. **Meaningless NAV:** The Net Asset Value (NAV), currently at a 0.46x discount to market cap, is merely a marketing figure. There is no redemption mechanism for token holders to claim the underlying NodeMonkes assets. Price is set by market liquidity flows, not by this theoretical backing. In essence, NodeStrategy's design forces its revenue source (trading fees) to simultaneously cripple the demand and liquidity required for its own success, trapping the project in a stagnant state.

marsbit15m ago

NodeStrategy: The First Ordinals DAT Project, Bringing the Strategy Treasury Narrative to NFTs

marsbit15m ago

Agentic Design Patterns: A Book That Made Me Re-Understand "What Is an Agent, Really?"

"Agentic Design Patterns" is a 2025 book by Antonio Gullí, a Google engineering director, which offers a systematic framework for AI Agent development through 21 design patterns. A core contribution is the "Four Levels of Agency": Level 0 (bare LLMs) are not true agents. Level 1 agents actively decide when and how to use tools. Level 2 agents engage in strategic planning, context engineering (curating and filtering information), and self-reflection. Level 3 involves multi-agent collaboration with defined communication topologies. The book introduces **Context Engineering** as a superset of prompt engineering, managing four layers of information for the agent: system prompts, external data, implicit context (user history, environment), and feedback loops for automated optimization. A key pattern is **Reflection (Producer-Critic)**, where two distinct agents with different prompts collaborate iteratively—one produces output, the other critiques it—until quality is satisfactory or a max iteration limit is reached. For **Memory**, a three-layer model is proposed: Session (ephemeral conversation context), State (temporary task data), and Memory (persistent, long-term storage). Regarding **Multi-Agent Systems**, the book advises against unnecessary complexity, recommending simple topologies like Supervisor or Peer-to-Peer based on task needs. It emphasizes perfecting a single Level 2 agent before moving to multi-agent setups. The author concludes with three actionable takeaways: 1) Add a Critic agent to existing workflows, 2) Practice Context Engineering beyond simple prompts, and 3) Avoid premature multi-agent complexity; first master a robust single agent. The book provides a practical map, codifying common challenges like reflection, memory, and coordination into reusable patterns, saving developers from reinventing foundational solutions.

链捕手1h ago

Agentic Design Patterns: A Book That Made Me Re-Understand "What Is an Agent, Really?"

链捕手1h ago

Will ETH See Fund Inflows Again? Sharplink and BitMine Make It onto the Russell Index List

Two Ethereum (ETH)-related public companies, Sharplink (SBET) and BitMine (BMNR), will be added to the U.S. Russell Indexes on June 29, 2026. SBET is confirmed for the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000, while BMNR is on the preliminary list for the Russell 3000 and has a high chance of entering the Russell 1000. This inclusion acts as an "automatic shopping list" for massive passive investment funds like ETFs and pension plans, compelling them to buy these stocks to match the index composition. Consequently, millions of mainstream investors who do not directly trade crypto will automatically gain exposure to these Ethereum-linked equities through their index funds. This move channels significant passive capital—trillions of dollars track these indexes—into SBET and BMNR, integrating Ethereum-related investment opportunities into traditional financial portfolios. While the funds buy the companies' stocks, not ETH directly, this is expected to provide short-term price support for the stocks and increase their liquidity and institutional ownership. Over the long term, it could also indirectly incentivize the companies to acquire more ETH.

marsbit1h ago

Will ETH See Fund Inflows Again? Sharplink and BitMine Make It onto the Russell Index List

marsbit1h ago

An AI Read SpaceX's Prospectus and Wrote This Investment Memo in 12 Minutes

An AI agent autonomously analyzed SpaceX's 226MB S-1 filing, purchased real-time market data on-chain for $1.87, and generated a comprehensive investment memo in 12 minutes. The memo concludes a "Hold" recommendation. Bull Thesis: SpaceX holds a near-monopoly in commercial launch (80% of global orbital mass since 2023), operates the profitable Starlink business (10.3M subscribers, $7.2B adj. EBITDA), and is vertically integrated from rockets to AI via the xAI acquisition. Starlink alone is a standout, high-margin business. Bear Thesis: The AI division is a massive cash burn ($6.4B operating loss on $3.2B revenue in 2025). True debt obligations approach ~$42B, not the headline $29B, due to bridge loans and X-related debt. Significant contingent liabilities exist, including a potential $10B fee from a Cursor option agreement. The company faces concentrated counterparty risk (e.g., a $45B Anthropic contract), slowing revenue growth, and complex governance as a controlled company with four share classes. Valuation anchors Starlink's standalone value at ~$84B (applying Iridium's 7.4x sales multiple), suggesting the current ~$500B+ IPO target prices in immense future execution risk for Starship and AI. Key risks include Starship delays, accelerating AI losses, and underwriter conflicts (the IPO's lead banks are also lenders on the $20B bridge loan it aims to refinance). Investment triggers: upgrade to "Overweight" if priced ≤$350B and Starship meets milestones; downgrade to "Pass" if priced >$510B or key risks materialize.

marsbit1h ago

An AI Read SpaceX's Prospectus and Wrote This Investment Memo in 12 Minutes

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of S (S) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow