Bitcoin is beginning to show signs of renewed bullish energy, with the price testing the $113,000 resistance level after weeks of mixed sentiment. The move comes as many altcoins are gaining strength, suggesting that the broader crypto market is preparing for decisive action. The next few days are set to be crucial, as investors eagerly await the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where speculation is building around a potential interest rate cut. Any monetary policy shift from the Fed could significantly impact liquidity flows into Bitcoin and risk assets.
At the same time, the structure of Bitcoin’s investor base is changing. According to top analyst Maartunn, the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC has been declining rapidly in this cycle. Meanwhile, addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are on the rise. This shift highlights a redistribution of supply, where large entities appear to be reducing exposure while smaller but still significant players increase their holdings.
Bitcoin Supply Shift: From Big Fish To Medium Players
Maartunn explains that the current “Big Fish Down, Medium Players Up” dynamic highlights a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s ownership structure. This transition reflects a supply redistribution, where massive concentrations of Bitcoin in the hands of a few whales are giving way to medium-sized players, many of whom are linked to ETF custody wallets and institutional investment structures.
This development carries major implications for the market. When Bitcoin is concentrated in fewer hands, price action can be vulnerable to abrupt swings triggered by large single-entity decisions. By contrast, supply spread across more medium players tends to create a more resilient and liquid market structure, less prone to outsized shocks. ETF custody wallets, in particular, represent a more transparent, regulated, and demand-driven form of holding, aligning Bitcoin closer with traditional financial infrastructure.
Unlike previous cycles, institutional involvement is now playing a decisive role. From ETFs in the US to treasury strategies in Japan, institutional adoption has reshaped how Bitcoin supply is absorbed after each rally. Instead of chaotic peaks followed by sharp drawdowns, the market now shows stretched-out tops and segmented distribution phases.
This structural evolution could mark a turning point for Bitcoin, where long-term sustainability increasingly outweighs speculative frenzy, setting the stage for a more mature bull market cycle.
Price Action Reveals Growing Momentum
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of recovery after weeks of volatility, currently trading around $112,902 on the 12-hour chart. The price has managed to reclaim momentum following a bounce from the $110K support, but it now faces a critical resistance test. The chart highlights BTC pressing against the 50-day moving average (blue line), which sits just above the current price. A clean break above this level would strengthen the bullish case and potentially open the door toward the $115K–$117K range.
On the downside, the 200-day moving average (red line) remains intact near $112K, providing short-term support. This convergence of moving averages creates a narrow trading zone, meaning that the next decisive move could trigger a larger breakout. The ultimate resistance remains at $123,217, the local high marked in August.
Failure to sustain above $112K could result in another pullback toward $110K. On the flip side, a breakout with strong momentum above $115K could confirm a renewed rally. The market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals, particularly the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, which could drive volatility in the coming days.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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